Top stories from the Russian press on Wednesday, November 3rd, prepared by TASS
Izvestia: Russia’s future in the fight against climate change
The preservation of forests and other natural ecosystems is playing a decisive role in the fight against global warming, Russian President Vladimir Putin said in his video message to the participants of the Glasgow Climate Conference (COP26). He stressed that Russia intends to stop greenhouse emissions by 2060, and the country’s vast forests should help assist this effort. Meanwhile, the political part of COP26 came to an end. However, as many of the participants feared, it did not produce any breakthroughs. According to experts interviewed by Izvestia, this is due to the fact that countries are not ready to answer for their decisions before the world community.
"Russia is not up against the dilemma of whether or not to use carbon-based energy resources as sharply as, for example, European countries or small island states, which could choose sources," Deputy Head of the Commission on Sustainable Development and Ecology of the Russian Association for UN Assistance Natalia Ryazanova told Izvestia. "Russia didn't really need to become a part of the overall process, but when it started to acquire more and more economic features, it became clear that Russia had to join it," she added.
The expert added that Russia is moving towards cleaner fuel at its own pace. According to Putin, in the coming years, an energy transition using hydrogen awaits Russia. The issue is that Western countries shape rules for other states, and in this sense, the norms for the EU countries will also apply to those players who want to trade with the EU, Ryazanova emphasized.
Putin's address was timed to coincide with the release of the Declaration on Forests and Land Use, which was signed by 105 countries, including Russia. The Declaration, however, is not the only agreement reached at COP26. For example, on November 2, the White House announced that almost 100 nations have already joined the global initiative to reduce methane emissions by 30% by 2030. However, the situation here is somewhat more complicated than with forests.
"Russia has one of the largest gas pipeline networks, and one way or another, methane leaks happen there. The same thing occurs in the United States, but this does not prevent the US from standing up for the struggle," Director of the National Energy Institute Sergey Pravosudov told Izvestia.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: US cobbling together oil coalition against Russia, Saudi Arabia
A ministerial meeting of OPEC and its allies, including Russia, to determine the levels of oil output in December is scheduled for next Thursday. Most oil-producing countries support maintaining the already approved plans to increase oil output. However, there are many countries dissatisfied with the high oil prices in consumer countries. And for US President Joe Biden, expensive gasoline has already become a real political headache. Washington is assembling a coalition against the position of Saudi Arabia and Russia. Experts told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that the escalation of the conflict over oil prices could lead to new sanctions.
Over the past year, Brent oil has soared by 130% from $36 to $83 and foreign analysts expect further hikes. The current oil market situation clearly does not suit the US. According to media reports, Washington could even assemble a coalition to pressure OPEC+ and force the cartel to boost oil production.
According to experts interviewed by Nezavisimaya Gazeta, a conflict between the US and OPEC+ would be possible only after the meeting on November 4, if the cartel decides not to increase oil output.
Any sort of confrontation between OPEC+ and the United States will not transpire any time soon, head of the BCS World of Investments department Vasily Karpunin told the newspaper. "So far, no leverage against OPEC+ has been seen. The OPEC + deal is over two years old, and so far, nothing like this has happened," he pointed out. He also noted if the situation with oil prices were really critical for US politicians, they could have reached a compromise with Iran long ago and lifted the oil embargo against it. Karpunin believes that "supplies from this country would help balance the oil market and put pressure on prices".
Head of the analytical department of AMarkets Artem Deev also doubts that putting pressure on importing countries will be effective. "The conflict between the United States and OPEC+ over price reductions can only head in one direction, an unsuccessful one for the United States," said Deputy Head of Alpari Natalya Milchakova.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: EU approaching Belarus with new sanctions in one hand and negotiations in the other
The fifth package of sanctions against Belarus may be adopted as early as mid-November. The coming new restrictions are over the migration crisis on the border of Belarus and the EU, and Europe sees Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko as the culprit. At the same time, the Belarusian issue will be discussed in Vienna with the participation of representatives from the Lukashenko administration. However, experts interviewed by Nezavisimaya Gazeta are not sure that the Belarusian leadership will be satisfied with the proposed format.
For the first time since last year’s presidential elections, Europe contemplated whether sanctions alone are enough to solve the question of Belarus. However, Austria’s talks initiative did not really surprise the Belarusian expert community. Vienna is seen as Lukashenko’s main lobbyist in Europe, given that it has its own business interests in Belarus, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.
At the same time, experts are still very cautious about Austria's initiative being actually implemented. Political scientist Valery Karbalevich highlighted the fact that Brussels and Minsk have different mutual interests. Karbalevich also doubts that Minsk will agree to take part in the Vienna conference at all.
Political scientist Igor Tyshkevich suggests that "breakthroughs" should not be expected from Vienna’s initiative. In his opinion, Austria is trying "to test the parties’ readiness for dialogue, and at the same time to strengthen its influence within the EU". The expert believes that Russia could respond to the invitation if it needs it to put pressure on Minsk, but in this case, Belarus will not send its representatives to the event. He does not rule out that both sides could join the event at the level of pro-government experts, which means, people far from making decisions.
Kommersant: US to blame for deplorable state of relations with Russia says veteran political expert
Moscow and Washington are gearing up for a second summit between Presidents Vladimir Putin of Russia and Joe Biden of the United States. The date and format of the expected event have not yet been announced, as well as the topics to be discussed by both leaders. US political scientist and University of Chicago Professor John Mearsheimer, who is also a member of the Valdai Discussion Club, told Kommersant that Washington should be interested in normalizing relations with Russia, as it bears the main responsibility for the current conditions of bilateral relations.
According to the expert, the chances of US-Russian relations improving in the foreseeable future are very slim. Even if Biden wanted to dramatically change the situation for the better, it would be very difficult, since Russophobic sentiments are so widespread that it would take enormous efforts on the part of the administration to change its policy towards Moscow. Meanwhile, Biden has a number of much more serious problems than the state of US-Russian relations, Mearsheimer noted.
The current state of affairs was influenced by several factors, among them, NATO’s eastward expansion coupled with the so-called color revolutions, and the United States believing that all countries should behave the way Washington wants, the expert noted. According to him, the US bears major responsibility for the deplorable state of bilateral relations with Russia. And it is the US that should be interested in normalizing relations, as an alliance between Russia and China is not in Washington’s interests.
Touching on the upcoming summit, Mearsheimer would advise Biden to take specific steps to improve relations with Russia. In particular, stop talking about further NATO expansion and make it clear to Putin that he understands Russia’s strategic interests in Eastern Europe.
Kommersant: Gazprom not booking Yamal-Europe capacities for 2022
Gazprom has not booked additional transit capacities of Russian gas via the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline through Poland to Europe for the first, second, and third quarters of 2022. According to Kommersant, the refusal to book can be explained by Gazprom's expectation that certification of the Nord Stream 2 operator will soon be completed, as well as by weak competition from LNG in Europe. Gazprom also refused to book additional transit capacities through Ukraine.
The Russian energy giant chose not to book extra capacities in order to get more certainty on the level of gas demand in Europe, on reserves in UGS facilities, as well as on the timing of the launch of Nord Stream 2 by the end of 2021, Maria Belova from Vygon Consulting told Kommersant. Gazprom's reluctance to book capacities for a long time can be explained by the expectation of the launch of Nord Stream 2, as its certification has not yet been completed.
In addition, the company’s decision may indicate that it is not going to increase supplies to the European market above contractual obligations in 2022, and so it does not expect high competition from LNG suppliers or a growing struggle for market share in the region.
Dmitry Marinchenko from Fitch believes that Gazprom is likely planning to redirect at least some of the gas flows through Ukraine and Poland to Nord Stream 2. Therefore, the company chose not to book capacities in order not to take on additional obligations.
