On January 10, Geneva hosted closed-format Russian-American security guarantees consultations. Those took place at the US Permanent Mission to the UN Office. The side's delegations were led by Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov and First Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman.
The day before, we note, a preliminary dinner was held, following which Ryabkov said the conversation was tough but businesslike, making him feel optimistic to some extent. As the Deputy Foreign Minister noted earlier, Russia's stance is adamant, so the Americans should be ready for a trade-off. "The American side must prepare for compromises. The Russian side came here with a clear position, which contains a number of elements, in my opinion, quite clear and formulated so clearly, including at the highest level, that there simply cannot be deviations from our current approach," Ryabkov said, when speaking at Channel One.
In an interview with RIA Novosti, Ryabkov noted that Washington wants to restore activities of the Russia-NATO Council on terms unacceptable to Moscow. According to the diplomat, Russia "would like, first of all, to come to an agreement with the United States and check to what extent they are able to make responsible decisions at the current difficult, if not alarming, moment from the point of view of European security."
In turn, as the State Department noted, Washington is ready to discuss a number of bilateral issues with Moscow, but does not intend to touch upon its allies' security behind their back. According to Ms. Sherman, they will leave the discussion of some issues until the NATO-Russia Council meeting in Brussels on January 12 and the OSCE Permanent Council Vienna meeting on January 13. Here the United States is clearly playing cunning, as it is well aware that its NATO allies will not make any independent decisions unbeknownst to Washington. Suffice it to recall that the United States accounts for about 80% of military and financial resources available to the North Atlantic Alliance, which actually makes Washington the only negotiating party it makes sense for Moscow to conduct a dialogue on security guarantees with.
It is instructive to recall what the White House said right before the consultations. No legal guarantees are going to be given following the talks. Curiously, these statements by Washington coincided with new Western media reports about upcoming sanctions against Russia if its troops invade Ukraine. So, Bloomberg reported that Joe Biden's administration is exploring the possibility of imposing new sanctions against Moscow, tougher than its embargo against Cuba, Iran and the DPRK. Those will particularly include restrictions on exports to Russia of high-tech items produced with the use of American technologies or software, which is quite a wide range of products – from smartphones and TVs to navigation systems.
Apparently, the United States has never comprehended Moscow's seriousness in its the approach to the first round of negotiations with the United States and NATO on security guarantees that imply, among other things, the alliance's non-expansion eastwards and restrictions on deploying a number of weapons in Eastern Europe. Russian-American consultations in Geneva that ended the day before confirmed that. There have been no specific concessions on the part of the United States, especially as regards NATO's expansion. Obviously, this option does not suit Russia.
Russian diplomats and experts certainly did not expect that Moscow and Washington would sign a number of package agreements right after the January talks and toast to this fact with a glass of Crimean champagne. For the time being, the level of relations between Russia and the United States is so low that negotiations may take at least several months, with the agenda being so huge. Things do not seem that bad if we follow the statement by USSR ex-Foreign Minister Andrei Gromyko that "ten years of negotiations are better than one day of war." At least, representatives of Russia and the United States chose diplomacy over violence.
However, Andrei Gromyko's statement does not fit the current situation right, since Russia already expects the January consultations to yield "legal security guarantees" without any delays in the negotiation process. If we recall what President Vladimir Putin recently said, Moscow awaits tangible results from the talks in Geneva, Brussels and Vienna, and does not want its counterparts to drown things in words. Unfortunately, the latter has been the case so far. Especially following US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken's speech, from which it follows Washington is really going to engage in chattering.
Summing up the outcome of Geneva consultations during his briefing, Sergei Ryabkov said "the conversation was difficult, long, very professional, deep, concrete, without attempts to embellish or smooth over sharp corners." He also noted that the key issues remain up in the air, and Moscow failed to see Washington's apprehension of the urgency to solve them in a suitable way.
"We presented to the Americans in the most detailed way possible the logic and substance of our proposals, explained why obtaining legal guarantees from NATO not to expand is an absolute imperative, explained why we absolutely must receive legal guarantees on the non-deployment of the strike systems on Russia's borders, and why we are raising the question about NATO abandoning, by and large, the military material development of the territory of states which joined the alliance after 1997."
According to Ryabkov, lack of progress along this track will make work on other aspects questionable. He also stressed that Moscow will not deviate from its requirements for security guarantees. According to the diplomat, Russia still sees a basis for reaching an agreement with NATO on legally binding ones. We want the dialogue to proceed, he said, so that work does not stop and diplomacy keeps serving the cause of strengthening security and stability, which provides basis for an agreement.
But the main thing is that with the 7.5-hour-long Russian-American meeting, the diplomatic marathon has only begun. According to the schedule drawn up at the highest level, the bilateral talks will be followed by a meeting of the Russia–NATO Council next Wednesday, and a Thursday OSCE meeting in Vienna. Therefore, it is still premature to draw any conclusions – let's wait for the entire January negotiation cycle to complete. Sergei Ryabkov said this at his briefing, either. Only after that, Moscow will embark upon further specific steps.
