Top stories from the Russian press on Tuesday, January 18th, prepared by TASS
Kommersant: Diplomat weighs in on NATO’s real policies and intentions
This week, Moscow is waiting for a written reaction from the United States and NATO to the security guarantee drafts put forward by Russia. Negotiations on this topic took place last week and revealed serious differences on many points. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko told Kommersant why Moscow is questioning the position of the US and NATO and Russia's demands.
"I think it is clear to anyone that NATO’s expansion project is connected to two geopolitical objectives. The first is to set up a zone of influence and expand it. The second is to look for an enemy. In order to somehow justify this, they are pinning the intention to restore zones of influence on us. When in fact, they themselves seek to establish and expand such zones as much as possible," the deputy foreign minister said. According to him, the domestic conflict in Ukraine was largely a result of the US and the EU attempting to put the country in a position of an artificial choice between the West and Russia. "NATO, by its very nature, cannot exist without an adversary, otherwise the meaning of its existence and expansion is lost," he added.
"NATO’s real policy, the principle of indivisibility of security works only for members of the alliance. And for everyone else, it is divisible," Grushko said, adding "But even in relations between NATO allies, these principles are applied very selectively, depending on political expediency." He recalled the situation around the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and Russia’s sale of its S-400 systems to Turkey.
The diplomat said earlier that if Russian demands are rejected by the US and NATO, Moscow will use military-political retaliatory measures. "We are not threatening anyone. We’re cautioning," he told Kommersant, noting that the nature of these military-technical measures will largely depend on "how the situation unfolds, and what military potentials can be used against our interests".
Kommersant: Kazakh ex-leader’s relatives exit key government and business positions after failed insurrection
Nursultan Nazarbayev's relatives are exiting Kazakhstan’s public sector. Samat Abish, the nephew of the country's first president, was dismissed from the post of Deputy Head of the National Security Committee, and Nazarbayev's three sons-in-law left key posts in major government bodies and large energy companies. According to Kommersant, this large-scale purge indicates the dismantling of the previous power structure built under the first president of the country, but it is not ushering in reforms just yet.
"The purging of state structures, large companies and funds from the Nazarbayev elite and relatives of the Elbasy in the country is viewed favorably in general," the newspaper writes. The leader of the parliamentary faction of the Ak Zhol party Azat Peruashev considers the personnel purge to be a reaction to society's expectations. At the same time, he is convinced that further serious reforms are needed. "The coup attempt has been rebuffed. The fact that people went to what they thought were peaceful rallies in the first days is a sign that there are problems in society. These are the problems involving corruption, social disparity, and injustice. It is clear that there are no ideal states, and in any state, people have something to put forward. But in our case, it has gone beyond certain boundaries," the politician told Kommersant.
"As for the series of resignations, in my opinion, this is a completely uncontested solution for President Tokayev in this situation," Director of the Talap Center of Applied Research Rakhim Oshakbayev told the newspaper. At the same time, the expert highlighted the many problems that have not yet been resolved and the many questions that remain unanswered. "The current situation is calm but fragile," he noted.
Political scientist Eduard Poletaev noted that the actions of the authorities regarding the resignations fit well into public expectations. According to him, society has a certain demand for change.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Lukashenko accuses Ukraine of building up military at the border
President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko held a meeting with the military on the forthcoming joint Belarusian-Russian exercises. According to him, drills need to be carried out by the allies because of the growing threat from the West and the South. According to him, more than 30,000 military personnel with equipment and weapons are stationed in Poland on the border with Belarus and the Baltic states. Experts told Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Lukashenko is trying to please Russia and mobilize his supporters within the country. In their opinion, a full-scale conflict between Minsk and Kiev should not be expected.
Lukashenko's statements about Western insidiousness, NATO tanks near the borders with Belarus, and Poland's plans to seize border territories are not new, the newspaper writes. Recently, however, attacks and accusations against Ukraine have become more and more noticeable.
Political scientist Valery Karbalevich believes that by accusing Ukraine of building up its military potential, Lukashenko "is actively joining the conflict between Russia and the West" and "is following Russia’s policy course". In this way, Lukashenko resolves two issues. He "demonstrates loyalty to Russia and thereby receives some bonuses or dividends from it, and forms a model of a besieged fortress", the commentator said.
The expert reiterated that this is not the first time Lukashenko is pointing to the threat emanating from Ukraine. According to Karbalevich, however, even now the confrontation will not hurt trade or the economy. "This is just rhetoric, everyone is used to it and does not pay attention to it, it will simply remain rhetoric this time," Karbalevich believes. "Ukraine is very much interested in economic ties with Belarus," the expert explains. According to statistics, in January-September, Belarus exported $3.6 bln worth of goods to Ukraine.
Izvestia: Oil may rise in price to $90 per barrel
The price of Brent crude oil in Q1 2022 may rise to $90 per barrel, according to experts interviewed by Izvestia. Over the past week, a barrel of oil has risen in price by almost 3% to $85.80, and over the month by over 16.5%. The main reasons for this growth are the failed insurrection in Kazakhstan, the surging demand for energy, OPEC+’s well-coordinated policy, as well as declining production in Libya, experts told Izvestia.
The hike in oil prices may continue to $90 per barrel in Q1, Deputy Head of Alpari Information and Analysis Center Natalya Milchakova told the newspaper. By the end of January, an increase to $87-88 per barrel can be expected, she added. Important factors in shaping the price are the global economic recovery after the pandemic and the rising demand for energy, the expert believes.
"The price of oil will gradually rise, as its global consumption continues to increase, and production may not keep up with demand," leading analyst at the National Energy Security Fund Igor Yushkov told Izvestiya.
According to Head of the analytical department at AMarkets Artem Deev, the reasons for the recent hike in prices have been Kazakhstan’s unrest and fears of reduced production in the Central Asian country. The situation was also influenced by traders’ hopes that the new coronavirus variant wouldn’t cause severe damage to the global economy, the expert added.
At the same time, the probable restoration of the nuclear deal between Iran and the United States could negatively affect prices, analyst at FG Finam Alexander Potavin told Izvestia.
Vedomosti: Russia outpaces US and China in industrial production in 2021
At the end of 2021, Russia was ahead of the United States and China in the industrial production index, according to an analytical review by Institute for Natural Monopolies Research (IPEM). In the final months of 2021, Russia’s industrial performance outpaced that of China, Brazil, India, the United States, Japan, and Germany in terms of growth dynamics, the institute noted, citing data from the Russian State Statistics Service (Rosstat). Thus, in November, the industrial production index in Russia amounted to 7% against 3.8% in China, -4.4% in Brazil, and 0.5% in the US. Experts told Vedomosti that this growth would continue in 2022 amid high commodity prices.
A state statistics representative told the newspaper that data for November 2021 really shows a recovery in industrial production by 7%. Extractive industries grew by 10.2%, manufacturing jumped by 5.3%, while the energy sector, heat and gas supply saw a rise of 3.9%.
Deputy Head of the Fuel and Energy Complex Research Department at IPEM Evgeny Rudakov explained to Vedomosti that by the end of 2021, this increase is expected in all sub-sectors of the mining and manufacturing industries.
According to Rudakov, Russia is not very involved in the global high-value-added production chains, and the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the economy was minimal. Overall, throughout the world the service sector suffered, but Russia’s portion of this sector is lower than in developed countries, so this factor did not have a key impact on domestic demand for industrial products. The bulk of Russian exports are fuel and energy sector products, the demand for which has dipped somewhat moderately in the world, the expert added. The growth of industrial production was also facilitated by the high share of the state in the economy, he said.
