What Zelensky hopes to achieve in meeting with Joe Biden; Hezbollah-Israel conflict intensifies; and Macron's new government takes shape. These stories topped Monday's newspaper headlines in Russia, according to TASS News Agency.
Izvestia: What to expect from Zelensky’s meeting with Biden
Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky is visiting the United States this week and will meet with Joe Biden on September 26. The politicians are expected discuss three main issues: long-range strikes against Russia, financing for Ukraine, and political support after the US elections. Experts interviewed by Izvestia, however, do not believe that Zelensky will be able to solve any of Ukraine’s practical problems during his trip.
The Ukrainian delegation will be in the United States this week to participate in the UN General Assembly. According to an official statement from the White House, Zelensky and Biden are expected to have a sit-down to discuss Kiev’s strategic plans. The Ukrainian leader’s press service reports that Zelensky will present his "victory plan" to Biden and secure further support.
The second key issue on the agenda is financial assistance to Ukraine. Last year, the US Congress struggled for months to agree on the allocation of funds to Kiev, throwing some Ukrainian officials into panic mode, Izvestia writes.
Political scientist, former head of the government of the Lugansk People’s Republic Marat Bashirov believes that Zelensky's visit to the United States will not lead to any tangible results.
"I believe that no one will give him new weapons, and he will not get permission to attack Russian territory. The United States is now in the most critical phase of the election campaign - everything is on hold and the situation is frozen. It seems to me that Zelensky will try to use his visit for another wave of self-promotion. It is important for him to show that he is still received at the highest level, that he has not been forgotten," the expert told Izvestia.
Political scientist Dmitry Rodionov added that Zelensky will not be able to get restrictions on the use of Western missiles lifted.
"The Democrats are treading very carefully on the eve of the elections - they do not want to escalate the situation, lest the Republicans accuse them of escalating to World War III. Overall, Zelensky’s meetings with Kamala Harris and Donald Trump may turn out to be more interesting. The Ukrainian side will try to win the support of both candidates in order to somehow build relations after the American elections. It seems to me that this will be the main purpose of the trip," he noted.
Izvestia: Hezbollah declares new phase in conflict with Israel
After its overnight attack on northern Israel, the Lebanese Shiite movement Hezbollah announced that it had entered a new phase of confrontation with the Israeli state. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF), in turn, promised to intensify its attacks on targets in Lebanon. Experts told Izvestia that despite the growing tensions, there are a number of factors preventing the parties from moving to direct combat.
Hezbollah’s rocket attack on Israeli territory on September 22 marks the transition to a new phase of military action, the movement’s deputy secretary general, Naim Qassem said. In Israel, some 150 rockets were fired at the north of the country on Sunday. Most of them were shot down by air defenses, officials said.
Despite the intensified confrontation and a lot of big talk, neither side is ready to take things further at this point, Middle East expert Leonid Tsukanov believes.
"Both sides continue to test each other’s resolve - Hezbollah has increased its attacks on Israel’s border areas, and the Israelis are ramping up preparations for a military operation in the border area. However, the Israeli government is still ‘constrained’ in its decisions, fearing that an incursion into Lebanon would jeopardize negotiations for the release of hostages. In addition, many in the Israeli General Staff believe that an operation against Hezbollah would end in failure, so Netanyahu cannot start it without solid justification," he told Izvestia.
It would be very problematic for the Israel Defense Forces to conduct two ground operations at the same time. Despite the recent attacks, Hezbollah remains combat-ready and can inflict significant damage on the Israeli army, Program Coordinator at the Russian International Affairs Council Ivan Bocharov told Izvestia.
"Israel will most likely try to limit itself to airstrikes on Hezbollah’s military facilities, with the goal of mitigating any possible threats from the movement at minimal cost. We should not overestimate the likelihood of the current escalation turning into a full-blown war. We can also say that Hezbollah’s ability to counter Israel has been diminished as a result of the events of the past few days," he said.
At the same time, as Israel’s military operation in the Gaza Strip has shown, Hezbollah should not expect special support from Arab countries when the IDF launches a ground operation. According to Ivan Bocharov, the countries of the Arab world have their own problems to deal with: from peace negotiations and post-conflict reconstruction to modernizing their economies and implementing reforms.
Kommersant: New French government leans right, full of Macron supporters
France has finally announced the list of the new, seventh government of President Emmanuel Macron, led by his fifth Prime Minister Michel Barnier. France has been without a government for 67 days - the longest stretch in the Fifth Republic’s history. And even after Michel Barnier took the helm as the new prime minister, it took him more than two weeks to assemble a government, a task that proved to be tougher than expected, Kommersant writes.
First, negotiations with the parties represented in parliament were extremely tense. The new government needed at least preliminary support from the main political forces. Second, it was not so easy to okay certain candidates. And third, President Macron once again proved to be the biggest obstacle - not only did he take his sweet time to appoint a prime minister, but once he did choose one, he kept his appointee on a tight leash, not giving him much freedom to make decisions on his own, according to the newspaper.
After the list of members of the government was announced on Saturday evening, it became clear that it would lean right. "It is important to note that the most important ministries were given either to ‘republicans’ or to representatives of the parties of the presidential bloc or to centrists allied with the president. The only exception was the Ministry of Justice," Kommersant writes.
Two ministers from the previous cabinet retained their positions. S·bastien Lecornu, a Macron ally, remained on as defense minister. The role of the interior minister remains crucial. G·rald Darmanin, the outgoing minister, was hardly known for left-wing views, and his replacement, Bruno Retailleau, leans even further to the right. He chaired the "Republican" faction in the Senate and is known for his tough stance on immigration. Meanwhile, the centrist Democratic Movement (MoDem) party received two important ministries and the post of State Secretary.
Former Secretary of State for Europe Jean-Noel Barrot became Minister of Foreign Affairs. The only important appointee with ties to the left was the new head of the Ministry of Justice, 72-year-old Didier Migaud.
Macron has managed to form a government largely composed of his staunch supporters, Kommersant writes. Despite voting en masse for the left and the far right, voters now find themselves with a center-right government. Not a single politician from the leftist New Popular Front made it into the government. There are no representatives from Marine Le Pen’s National Rally in the government either.
Vedomosti: Ukraine's financial lifeline shrinks as West cuts aid in half
The West is cutting funding for Ukraine - external infusions into the country’s budget have fallen by half, Vedomosti calculated citing recently published data from the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine for the first half of 2024. In January-June this year, Western countries financed 27% of the country’s state budget expenditures, while in the first half of 2023, that number was 50%. In dollar terms, aid fell from $19.1 bln to $10.6 bln. As it gets closer to default, Kiev is more actively shifting the financial burden onto the population, the newspaper writes.
Free external transfers fell particularly sharply - from $6.1 bln to $1 bln. Kiev expected to attract $37 bln in external loans in 2024, which would help cover almost the entire budget deficit, but in the first half of the year it was able to receive only a quarter of this amount.
At the same time, the burden on the budget is growing. The cost of servicing existing commitments continues to rise. In the first half of 2024, Kiev spent $900 mln on this, according to the Ministry of Finance and the average hryvnia exchange rate for this period, while in the second half it spent six times as much - $5.2 bln, which is more than the state budget expenditures for the same period on the economy, education, and health care combined.
Despite this, in April 2024 US President Joe Biden signed a law on military aid to Kiev for another $61 bln. According to their forecasts until 2026, Western defense contractors expect revenues to grow through orders for rearmament in Europe and the supply of equipment to Kiev.
Ukraine does not intend to pay off its debt. "They expect it to be written off in the future," senior researcher at the Center for Research on International Macroeconomics and Foreign Economic Relations at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences Oleg Komolov told the newspaper. "In such conditions, Kiev is forced to comply with the demands of Washington and London. In essence, we are talking about external control," leading researcher at the Institute of CIS Countries Alexander Dudchak noted.
"Without external assistance, Kiev would not have been able to conduct military operations for a long time. The US is playing the long game and will continue to provide funding. Its military-industrial enterprises are just getting started and insist on signing government contracts for five years," Dudchak added.
Kommersant: Novatek reviews plans to develop LNG projects amid sanctions
The leader of the Russian LNG market Novatek has begun to review its plans for the construction of its promising large-scale LNG projects in Murmansk and Sabetta amid sanctions restrictions, Kommersant writes. According to the newspaper’s sources, work on Murmansk LNG and Obsky LNG is currently frozen. The company is looking for alternative options to monetize its gas reserves and is reviewing promising export projects, Kommersant added.
According to Kommersant’s sources, further development of the Murmansk LNG and Obsky LNG projects has been suspended for the time being, and no active work is being carried out on either of them.
Kommersant’s sources don’t know when Novatek will return to developing the projects, as the company is currently mainly focused on completing Arctic LNG 2 and establishing supplies from the project. According to the sources, the company understands that all future LNG export projects will be subject to sanctions. It is also unclear where ice-class tankers for Arctic projects will be built, how they will be financed, and how trade will be organized.
On June 24, the EU banned new investments and the provision of goods, technologies and services necessary to complete the construction of Murmansk LNG and Obsky LNG. As a result of the full US sanctions, Novatek’s Arctic LNG 2 project, where the first line has already been commissioned and the second is being prepared for installation, is experiencing difficulties with the supply of raw materials. Murmansk LNG was considered the company’s most promising project, especially in the context of sanctions restrictions, the newspaper writes.
As for the Obsky Gas Chemical Complex, where the company planned to produce low-carbon ammonia and hydrogen, this project may become Novatek’s priority. The development of the complex will continue, but with the possibility of repurposing the project for the production of ammonia and urea. Experts believe that repurposing is logical due to the poor availability of technologies for the original version of the project and more convenient marketing of urea.
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