Russia voices concerns over potential Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, NATO's new chief inherits tough Ukraine situation and Tehran’s domestic vulnerabilities may be tested. These stories topped Friday's newspaper headlines across Russia, according to TASS News Agency.
Kommersant: Russia cautions Israel against attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities
Russia is seriously concerned over reports suggesting that Israel might deliver a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, according to a commentary by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov who stressed that even considering such a scenario is inadmissible. Earlier, a number of media outlets reported that Israel might attack Iran’s nuclear facilities in retaliation for its earlier massive missile strike. Meanwhile, the US has indicated that it does not support this idea.
However, the New Yorker’s US and Israeli sources do not rule out the possibility that the Israeli air force may still attempt to eliminate a number of facilities related to Iran’s nuclear program. According to the article, few American and Israeli officials "believe that Israel, acting alone, could destroy Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, especially the underground nuclear-enrichment site at Fordow, south of Tehran." "A strike that only partially succeeded could put enormous pressure on the United States to finish the job," the New Yorker emphasized.
Nikolay Surkov, senior researcher with the Center for Middle Eastern Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO RAS), told Kommersant that if one assumes that Israel’s retaliatory strike on Iran is inevitable - and this is precisely what is expected of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by many of his supporters, - then Israel has two options. "In the first case, this will be a carefully planned media stunt with proportional strikes. For example, surgical attacks on certain military facilities as it was in the spring. This way, the sides will save face and yet again avoid a bigger war opposed both by the US and the majority of Arab countries," the expert explained. "Such a scenario is preferable because it allows to avoid unnecessary risks and hold onto trump cards for the strategic long game, while at the moment, Netanyahu’s goal is not the victory over faraway Iran but removing immediate threats by defeating Hamas and Hezbollah," he added.
The other option is Israel attempting a sudden strike on strategic infrastructure, oil wells or even on Iranian nuclear facilities to demonstrate its overwhelming military superiority, sharply increase the costs of confrontation for Iran and take it out of the game so it won’t stand in the way of clearing out Gaza and southern Lebanon.
"The Israelis were getting ready to strike Iranian nuclear production sites back in the second half of the 2000s when they were practicing for long-range aviation raids. Such a turn of events is technically possible fraught with numerous risks, difficulties and expenditures, both technical and political. It is also hard to predict the purely military effect from such a raid - it is hardly possible to deal any critical blow to the Iranians without the US’ assistance," the expert noted. According to him, no matter which scenario the Israeli leadership chooses, the conflict is likely to be a prolonged one.
"What is more realistic is the conflict continuing in the same format as in the previous months when Israel was conducting ground operations, periodically receiving demonstrative strikes and dealing showy impressive strikes in return," Surkov concluded.
Izvestia: NATO’s incoming chief has nothing to offer to Ukraine
New NATO secretary general Mark Rutte’s visit to Kiev was a mere formality because currently the military bloc has nothing to offer to Ukraine, experts polled by Izvestia think. Rutte discussed with Vladimir Zelensky further aid, permission for long-range strikes deep into Russia’s territory as well as Ukraine’s chances of joining the alliance. Following the conversation, the sides did not make any truly significant statements which means that nothing is likely to change in Ukraine-NATO relations in the near future.
Overall, his visit to Kiev must be viewed as a ritual of sorts, something he had to do upon taking office, Vladimir Zharikhin, deputy director of the Institute of CIS Countries, told Izvestia. And his seemingly loud proclamations show that essentially NATO has nothing to offer to Kiev, thinks Dmitry Danilov, head of the European Security Department at the Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute of Europe.
"Rutte, as new secretary general, must resolve serious issues of scarce support for Ukraine on the part of NATO members. Is it possible to deliver more arms, give more money, ensure internal accord within the bloc with regard to how to proceed on the battlefield? So far, it is unclear what he can offer. Most likely, such gestures, on the contrary, demonstrate that NATO has nothing up its sleeve while all these issues remain in limbo," he told Izvestia.
However, amid all hiccups, Rutte gave an absolutely clear signal that for NATO, Ukraine, or, rather, the Ukrainian conflict, is an absolute priority," Danilov said.
"The question is what is behind this signal. First of all, it is quite obvious that NATO will not change its strategy, the alliance has a stated goal of containing Russia by all means possible, and, above all, on the Ukrainian battlefield," he said. Nevertheless, according to the expert, a political demonstration of solidarity around Ukraine and the fact that Rutte is stressing its future integration in NATO indicates some uncertainty within the alliance as to what they can do and how they can help Kiev. By taking office, Rutte falls under serious pressure and he is likely to take a diplomatic path and show that the alliance’s course remains the same, Danilov emphasized.
In Zharikhin’s opinion, Rutte has proven himself as an independent figure as the Dutch premier. So one cannot rule out that he is capable of acting proceeding from his own political position. This, in turn, may lead to a conflict with the US. In any event, any change of stance within NATO on aid to Ukraine is only possible after the November 5 US election.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Israel seeks to undermine Iran from within, playing on economic fragility
Israel intends to destabilize Iran from the inside via the current conflict, according to anonymous statements by Israeli officials to Western media who vowed to decimate the Iranian economy. The situation in Iran has been going south for some time now. Local separatist groups became active in the southeast while the population has issues with the country’s economic policy. According to experts, the protest wave in Iran has every chance of picking up momentum, and even the slightest nudge could set it off.
In a conversation with Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Russian International Affairs Council expert Nikita Smagin noted that the Sistan and Baluchestan province in Iran’s southeast has always been a hotbed for terror attacks. "The police, border guards, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps militia are being regularly attacked there," he reiterated. Protest rallies over economic difficulties are also common, the expert noted. "It seems to me that it is more telling that the country has its own agenda: while the country is at war with Israel and is organizing its anti-Israeli protest rallies, simultaneously people are protesting against completely different things absolutely unrelated to Israel. People are generally living their life and food prices are more important to them," the expert opined.
"That said, it is clear that Iran has a very serious potential for protest rallies," Smagin explained. "Again, the population is highly critical of their government. And in this sense, a strike on Iran may be perceived by some residents as a sign that the Islamic Republic is weak. And this may serve as a catalyst for some protest activity. But then again, it might not. If we look at the protest dynamics, even specifically in Iran, all key protests that we have seen over the past decades were driven by some internal factors," he explained.
According to the expert, the very idea that street protests may be sparked by external actors from abroad is not particularly obvious. He noted that protests in Iran are possible but not necessarily over the confrontation with Israel. "I would expect protest rallies if the government itself makes some thoughtless move," Smagin concluded.
Izvestia: Russia rules out leaving OSCE
Russia views the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) as a vital dialogue platform and will not leave the organization despite it failing to fulfill its functions, a high-ranking source told Izvestia. That said, Russian lawmakers polled admit that relations between Moscow and the OSCE are in a sorry state. Nevertheless, this is the "sole island" remaining for dialogue with Europe because there is no interaction along the lines of NATO and the EU, experts say.
Federation Council Deputy Speaker Konstantin Kosachev stressed that Russian representatives have not halted their participation in the organization’s Parliamentary Assembly (PA), only suspended it.
"We suspended participation in the OSCE PA because we were denied access to a third assembly. We were simply not issued visas," he told Izvestia. "As for the OSCE in general, the organization has not yet stooped to such hateful decisions with regard to Russia, and our diplomats and representatives of relevant ministries can participate in its operations," he added.
According to Dmitry Novikov, first deputy chairman of the State Duma International Affairs Committee, the organization still has something to offer so Moscow has merely suspended its participation in the OSCE PA without abandoning it completely. That said, the organization continues to deteriorate and relations between it and Russia are "on a downward trajectory."
"We are at a crossroads today, and the situation may change going forward. History shows that all confrontational phases end sooner or later and then it becomes possible to restore once-working formats," he noted.
"Additionally, the Soviet Union was one of the initiators of founding this organization. Given this fact, Russia cannot simply leave the OSCE. Undoubtedly, we will stay in the OSCE and will try to preserve our presence in every way, despite the fact that outside players, such as the United States and Canada, are managing to temporarily impose their agenda on this organization," said Vladimir Vinokurov, professor at the Russian Foreign Ministry’s Diplomatic Academy and editor-in-chief of the Diplomatic Service journal.
However, while remaining in the OSCE, Russia is thinking of possible alternatives. During the address to the Federal Assembly, Russian President Vladimir Putin noted the need to create a new contour of "Eurasia’s equal and indivisible security."
Vedomosti: Guest list for BRICS summit in Kazan shaping up
Representatives from over 30 countries as well as the leaders of some international organizations have already confirmed their participation in the BRICS summit to be held in Russia’s Kazan on October 22-24, Deputy Foreign Minister and Russia’s BRICS Sherpa Sergey Ryabkov said at a press conference on October 3.
However, he specifically named only Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Chair of the New Development, former Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff. According to the senior diplomat, it is "not in his purview" to divulge information about other guests. Ryabkov said that closer to the summit, their names will be revealed by the Russian presidential administration.
He added that all 10 current BRICS members, including five new ones, with Saudi Arabia among them despite sending mixed signals about its status in early 2024, will be represented at the highest level.
The main issue at the summit will be the development of the group's institutional framework and the extent to which the organization can evolve beyond being a mere discussion platform, said research director of the Russian International Affairs Council Andrey Kortunov. Steps will be taken toward expansion, but not on the scale of the 2023 Johannesburg summit when several new members at once were accepted. According to Kortunov, it is possible to expect that the status of a BRICS partner country will be more clearly defined which will be possibly perceived as candidate status.
"The issue of expansion cannot be put on hold. The leaders coming to Kazan are hoping to join the group in some capacity," the expert concluded.
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