Taking a lay of the land on the one-year anniversary of the Gaza conflict's beginning; what happens next now that Russian ambassador to the US Anatoly Antonov has been recalled; and Brazil pushes for permanent seat on UN Security Council. These stories topped Monday's newspaper headlines across Russia.
Media: One year on, key players offer insight on Gaza conflict in exclusives with Izvestia
October 7 marks exactly one year since the latest escalation in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. On October 7, 2023, militants from the Palestinian Hamas movement attacked Israeli border areas, resulting in the deaths of around 1,200 people being killed and another 251 taken hostage. On October 9, Israel imposed a complete blockade on the Gaza Strip, and on October 25, the IDF launched a ground operation. After a year of fighting, it controls most of the Strip, but Hamas has not been eliminated and 101 people are still being held hostage. Many politicians warn that the Middle East is on the brink of a large-scale war that could involve more than just the countries of the region.
On the anniversary of the conflict, Izvestia interviewed representatives of Israel, Lebanon, and Palestine, who presented their views on the causes of the conflict and possible paths to peace.
At least 16,000 armed people and militants have been killed in the Gaza Strip since October 7, 2023, adviser to Israeli Prime Minister Dmitry Gendelman told Izvestia. As for the military operations against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, the IDF will continue to strike the Shiite movement and will not allow it to strengthen its position on the border.
"The goals of Israel’s military operation in the Gaza Strip have not changed, there are still three of them. They are: the destruction of Hamas’ power, the return of our kidnapped citizens, and the complete demilitarization of the sector. One year on, we can say that we are very close to achieving these goals," he said.
Talking about the timing of Israel’s ground operation in southern Lebanon and strikes on Beirut, Gendelman said that "Israel is determined to destroy all this infrastructure, to eliminate everyone who is there and who is offering armed resistance to the Israeli army. We will not allow Hezbollah to entrench itself there in the future."
At the same time, he noted that Israel is not interested in a war. "However, as long as the shelling of our borders continues, there can be no talk of a peaceful solution. As soon as it stops, it will be possible to immediately discuss a peaceful solution for the future, which will bring peace not only to the citizens of Israel, not only to our northern, southern or eastern borders, but also to the entire Middle East region," Gendelman said.
In turn, Palestinian Ambassador to Russia Abdel Hafiz Nofal told Izvestia that it is impossible to reach any agreement with the current far-right leadership of Israel. He did, however, speak in favor of ongoing efforts within the framework of the new Saudi Arabian initiative to resolve the Palestinian-Israeli conflict based on a two-state solution, which as he added, Russia also supports.
"A real peace process can only take place under a new Israeli government, one that has a genuine desire for peace. In this case, the ideal solution would be the creation of two states. We want a peace process, but not with this Israeli government that continues to kill people in Gaza, in the West Bank, in Jerusalem, and in all the other regions. It is impossible to reach an agreement with it," he said.
The reconstruction of the Gaza Strip, according to the most conservative estimates of the UN, is estimated at $80-90 bln, and will take 7-8 years, the ambassador added.
Russia is actively working with the parties involved in the confrontation on the Lebanese-Israeli border, including Israeli representatives, to establish a ceasefire, Lebanese Ambassador to Russia Chawki Bou Nassar said in an interview with Izvestia.
The diplomat also noted that the military actions of the Shiite Hezbollah movement against Israel were caused by the ongoing aggression of the Jewish state against Palestine and Lebanon. And all attempts by the IDF to advance deep into Lebanese territory have been repelled by Hezbollah fighters. "The Jewish state did not need an excuse to attack Lebanon. It regularly violates Lebanon’s sovereignty," he said.
"Unfortunately, the aggressor considers itself a state above the law and does not respect international and humanitarian law. And the West fully supports it. The US and the UK use their veto power when Russia, which is friendly to us, tries to push through draft resolutions condemning Israel or forcing it to stop its aggression," the ambassador added.
At the same time, he emphasized that Israel will not be able to ensure the safe return of civilians to their homes in the north of the country through military action
Vedomosti: Russia in no rush to appoint new ambassador to United States
Anatoly Antonov, who served as Russia's ambassador to the United States for seven years, has returned to Moscow. He was recalled from Washington on October 5, and on October 6 his plane landed at the Vnukovo-2 government terminal, Vedomosti writes. According to the diplomat, with the presidential election less than a month away, work in the United States is becoming increasingly difficult.
Experts and sources told Vedomosti about various possible scenarios around the ambassadorship. One option is that the deputy ambassador will take over for Antonov, serving as a kind of stopgap for the position, scientific director of the Russian International Affairs Council Andrey Kortunov told the newspaper. Another option is to appoint a new ambassador to the US, not from the traditional Soviet-era pool of deputy ministers, but rather to tap someone from another department of the Foreign Ministry.
"We cannot rule out that the level of Russian representation in Washington will be downgraded in one form or another," Kortunov added.
Three sources close to the Foreign Ministry, to the State Duma, and the academic sphere, told Vedomosti that the former ambassador to Canada, director of the North American Department of the Foreign Ministry Alexander Darchiev could be the frontrunner for this post. "At the moment, none of the officials [in the US] communicate with the Russian ambassador anyway, so it generally doesn't matter who becomes the new representative in Washington," one of the sources told Vedomosti. But if an ambassador to the US is appointed, it will probably be Darchiev, the source believes.
Today, relations between Russia and the US are very difficult, to put it mildly, as evidenced by the change in Moscow's nuclear doctrine and talk of possible strikes deep into Russian territory with US weapons, chief researcher at the Institute of the US and Canada Vladimir Vasiliev told Vedomosti. The fact that Ambassador Antonov ended his tenure against this background can be seen as a "soft diplomatic warning" from Moscow.
Izvestia: Brazil eyes permanent membership in UN Security Council
Brazil’s permanent membership in the UN Security Council is under discussion, Brazil’s Ambassador to Russia Rodrigo de Lima Baena Soares told Izvestia. The diplomat stressed that it is time for Brazil to have a permanent seat on the Security Council. Its candidacy is actively supported by Russia - according to Moscow, the countries of the global South should be better represented in the central body of the world organization. At the same time, experts doubt that it will be possible to expand the list of permanent members of the UN Security Council any time soon.
"We believe that we have every reason to become a permanent member of the Security Council. We feel that the Security Council should be more representative, more inclusive, ensuring that the Global South has a voice. We also believe that we should change the working methods of the Security Council so that it is more transparent and to better reflect the interests of all UN members," the diplomat told Izvestia.
Reforms inside the UN Security Council can only occur once regional leaders are included, particularly from Africa and Latin America, fellow at the Institute for Advanced Studies at the University of Sao Paulo in Brazil Vinicius Rodrigues Vieira told the newspaper. "Brazil should be one of the first candidates to join the UN Security Council as a permanent member, mainly due to the country’s importance and authority in the South American and South Atlantic regions, in addition to its leadership position among the countries of the Global South," he told Izvestia.
"From Russia’s point of view, it is crucial that the Global South have greater representation in this structure, which is why we insist on the accession of India, Brazil, as well as African countries as permanent members of the Security Council. The inclusion of Germany and Japan is not a priority for Russia at this stage, although this was not always the case, because they largely represent the position of the United States," Scientific Director of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) Andrey Kortunov told Izvestia.
Izvestia: CIS countries ready to fight transnational crime
CIS countries are committed to jointly combating cross-border and transnational crime, with a special focus on the fields of information technology and cyber fraud, the participants of the 34th meeting of the Coordinating Council of the Prosecutor General’s Offices of the CIS countries in Yerevan agreed. The meeting was attended by delegations from seven countries. Boosting joint efforts to combat cybercrime is complicated by the fact that the legislation of the CIS countries in this area varies and not all countries are ready to unify it, experts told Izvestia.
Vladimir Bruter, expert at the International Institute for Humanitarian and Political Studies, believes that CIS members can do a lot more to work together to fight transnational cybercrime.
"The fact is that international cybercrime is a relatively new phenomenon and it requires that certain protocols be prescribed and synchronized to adapt to the situation. In order to do this, the legislation of the CIS countries must coincide by 80-90%, it cannot differ. However, this is not always possible, as countries view different situations differently," the expert noted.
In addition, a supervisory body is needed to monitor compliance with the adopted procedures. Within the CIS, this body must assume a part of "cyberspace sovereignty."
"Therefore, the question arises whether the CIS member states are ready for this. Some specific decisions have been made, but they are not binding," the expert added.
The session has once again shown that Russia believes in the indivisibility of international security and strives to ensure it for all states equally, Vice-Rector of the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Foreign Ministry Oleg Karpovich told Izvestia. "Russia is open to joint work on forming an updated, more sustainable architecture of international security in Eurasia. This kind of joint work is crucial now, when the world is in a state of turbulence," he said.
Vedomosti: Russian pipeline gas exports to Europe rise by 17%
Russia’s pipeline gas exports to Europe (EU countries and Moldova) increased by 17% year-on-year to 23.7 bln cubic meters (bcm) in January-September this year, according to Vedomosti’s calculations based on data from Gazprom and the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG). The high demand for Russian gas in the EU remains steady due to the favorable price environment for Gazprom on the European gas market, analysts interviewed by Vedomosti believe.
The increase in exports in the reporting period was mainly due to transport via the TurkStream gas pipeline. Over the first nine months of this year, Russian gas supplies via this route increased by 27% year-on-year to 12.2 bcm. Meanwhile, transit of Russian gas through Ukraine increased by 7% since the start of this year to 11.5 bcm.
Expert at the Government Financial University Igor Yushkov noted that gas prices on the European spot market have been rising this year and continue to rise amid the escalation of the military conflict in the Middle East. According to the expert, in October-December gas prices on the EU spot market will hover around $450 per 1,000 cubic meters. In these conditions, the expert predicts that demand for Gazprom’s supplies will continue. Maxim Khudalov, chief strategist at the Vector X investment company, does not rule out that by the end of the year prices will rise by $30-40 per 1,000 cubic meters from the current level.
The volume of Russian pipeline gas exports to Europe in 2025 will depend on maintaining transit through Ukraine, Yushkov noted. Gazprom’s contract for gas transit through Ukraine’s GTS expires at the end of December 2024, and Kiev has repeatedly said it does not plan to extend it.
Energy expert Kirill Rodionov told Vedomosti that Ukraine is in dire need of financial resources that will help maintain transit. "There will be no significant reduction in Russian gas exports to Europe next year," he believes.
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