As Ukraine flails on battlefield, West proposes plan to end fighting; Putin gets set to meet with regional leaders; and US tries to make deal with Israel to curb attacks on Iran. These stories topped Tuesday's newspaper headlines across Russia.
Izvestia: Pressure mounts on Ukraine as Western allies dangle NATO entry for territorial concessions
The office of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky is discussing the possibility of dismissing three key figures in the country’s military leadership, according to local media. Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, Head of the Main Intelligence Directorate Kirill Budanov, and Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Aleksandr Syrsky, could all lose their posts, Izvestia writes. According to the newspaper, the main reason for the potential reshuffle is growing dissatisfaction within the country’s leadership about the situation on the front lines. Meanwhile, Kiev’s Western allies are looking at this with exasperation, and are opening up to the idea of sacrificing territories to put a quick end to the conflict.
The office of Ukrainian President is preparing personnel changes, Forbes-Ukraine reported citing sources. The publication’s sources reported that those inside the Ukrainian government are unhappy with Defense Minister Rustem Umerov because of the "chaos" that has accompanied his appointment to the ministry, as well as confusion in government procurement, which has led to broken military contracts.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Western allies, seeing the disappointing situation on the battlefield, are increasing pressure on Ukraine. In particular, as the Financial Times reported, citing sources, they are looking for ways to expedite the end of hostilities, and have begun discussions on a "territory for NATO membership" plan.
Military expert and political scientist Vadim Mingalev believes that Ukraine will never become a member of NATO because the North Atlantic bloc "is using it as a means to weaken Russia." "If Ukraine is officially accepted into NATO, then Article 5 will come into force and, accordingly, NATO countries will have to fight for Ukraine. And they do not need this," the expert told Izvestia.
Director of the Institute of International Political and Economic Strategies RUSSTRAT Elena Panina believes that "the West is trying to adapt to the realities on the battlefield against the background of the tactical successes of the Russian Armed Forces in Donbass." The expert is adamant that Russia will never agree to Kiev’s membership in the alliance.
"One of the main reasons the special military operation started was Ukraine’s potential entry to NATO. Vladimir Putin reiterated this position on June 14 in his proposals for the final settlement of the conflict in Ukraine during his speech to the leadership of the Russian Foreign Ministry. It’s also clear that Russia has no interest in freezing the conflict, as this would be a prerequisite for Ukraine joining NATO," the analyst concluded.
Vedomosti: Putin plans busy international agenda with CIS summit, talks with Iranian President
The Council of Heads of State in the Kremlin, chaired by Russian President Vladimir Putin and scheduled for October 8, "will be the culmination of Russia’s work as the CIS chair in 2024," presidential aide Yuri Ushakov told reporters. He also confirmed the arrival of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in Moscow. Earlier, it was also announced that President of Kyrgyzstan Sadyr Japarov was making the trip to Russia, Vedomosti writes.
Russia’s agenda with its Central Asian partners, which together form the backbone of the CIS, is very broad, Head of the Central Asia Sector at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations Stanislav Pritchin told Vedomosti.
According to Ushakov, Putin has scheduled separate bilateral meetings for October 8: first with Azerbaijani President Aliyev, then with Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan. According to Head of the Caucasus sector at the Center for Post-Soviet Studies at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations Vadim Mukhanov, it would be unrealistic to expect significant progress on a peace agreement from just one meeting, but it could very well outline the main points of one, he told Vedomosti.
On October 9, Putin will hold another bilateral meeting with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. Ushakov noted that this will be the eighth meeting between the presidents of Russia and Belarus in 2024.
After the CIS summit in Moscow, Putin will travel to Ashgabat, the capital of Turkmenistan to meet for the first time with the newly elected President of Iran Masoud Pezeshkian and discuss the sharply aggravated situation in the Middle East.
According to Scientific Director of the Russian International Affairs Council Andrei Kortunov, a bilateral agreement between Russia and the Islamic Republic is currently being finalized.
The summit will be hosted by President of Turkmenistan Serdar Berdimuhamedov, who last met with Putin in 2022. As for relations between Russia and Turkmenistan, they are constructive and remain stable, Pritchin added. Moscow and Ashgabat are already working together in a number of areas, and this interaction will only be ramped up after Putin’s visit to Turkmenistan, the expert concluded.
Vedomosti: US proposes deal to Israel - no attacks on Iranian targets in exchange for aid
The White House is trying to make a deal with Israel to keep it from striking Iranian targets in response to Tehran’s October 1, Israeli radio station Kan reported citing sources. In return, Israel was offered a so-called compensation package, including additional military aid and diplomatic support. According to Kan, the negotiations lasted several days, but ultimately did not result in an agreement between the parties. Experts told Vedomosti that the US is trying to be proactive, wanting to prevent any further escalation in the Middle East in the run-up to the country’s presidential election.
According to the Associated Press, the United States provided Israel with $17.9 bln in military aid between October 7, 2023, and October 7, 2024. This aid included both direct funding and military equipment, artillery shells, bunker busters, and a large amount of ammunition.
One of the main reasons why the United States is urging Israel to refrain from striking strategically important Iranian targets is the risk of an uncontrolled, avalanche-like escalation, Senior Researcher at the Center for Middle East Studies at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences Nikolay Surkov told Vedomosti. According to the expert, this may not only include direct retaliatory strikes. Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz, which is crucial to the global oil and gas trade. This could create a difficult situation in the oil market, and Iran does not necessarily need to bomb Israel or attack other Gulf countries to do so, the expert added.
In addition, an escalation would be another loss for the Democrats ahead of the upcoming presidential election, he explained. "A major crisis in the Middle East is not what the Democratic administration needs. It would show once again that Biden and his team have completely failed in foreign policy, which has already drawn significant criticism," the expert said. But most likely, the United States will not pressure Israel, "because the Democrats need the support of Jewish voters in key states, and Israel will act independently of Washington anyway," the expert concluded.
The United States is calling on Israel to react with restraint, but what happens next is anyone’s guess, expert at the Russian International Affairs Council Kirill Semenov noted. Regardless, any actions taken by Israel that lead to escalation will likely be viewed negatively in the lead-up to the American election, the expert added.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Separatists challenge China’s Belt and Road Initiative
Two Chinese engineers were killed and eight injured after a fuel tanker was blown up near Pakistan’s largest airport. Taking credit for the attack were separatists from the province of Balochistan, who want to secede from Pakistan, saying that the government has deprived local residents of revenue from mineral extraction. Rebel groups in Pakistan and Afghanistan want to disrupt the creation of an economic corridor linking western China to the Indian Ocean, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.
Northwest China has no direct access to the sea. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is designed to correct this geographical injustice by deepening and expanding the Gwadar Port, building a modern highway from Gwadar to Islamabad and Peshawar and upgrading the Karakoram Pass route between China and Pakistan. This corridor is considered the cornerstone of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative, according to Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
"This is not the first terrorist attack in Karachi in recent years. It has become the main issue in the negotiations between China and Pakistan. In June this year, Pakistan launched a comprehensive operation to neutralize militants. It involves not only the army and special services, but also the fight against money laundering and drug trafficking. The operation has yet to show results," Gleb Makarevich, junior researcher at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta. "It is difficult to say how long China will tolerate militant attacks. In any case, it will not abandon its projects in Pakistan," the expert added.
The Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post suggests that terrorists could continue to be a threat to the Chinese in Pakistan, but economic ties between China and Pakistan will remain strong.
Izvestia: Russia’s gas exports projected to surge by 2036
Russian gas exports could grow to 197 bln cubic meters (bcm) by 2036, according to a forecast from Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak. Experts point to China, India, Pakistan, Iran, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan as the most promising export destinations. However, volumes to the European Union are unlikely to grow, Izvestia writes.
Russian companies upped their share in European imports from 17.2% in April-June to 19.4%, the highest level since Q2 2022. Most of the supplies are pipeline gas. Its share in exports in the quarter increased by 8% to 8.6 bcm. The volume of LNG supplies in the previous quarter was 4.7 bcm.
Russian gas exports to the European Union will continue in the future because the United States cannot meet all of Europe’s needs, Head of the Department of World Economy and International Economic Relations at the State University of Management Evgeny Smirnov told Izvestia.
"Despite the difficult relations between Russia and Europe, gas exports to the countries of this region still account for slightly less than half of the volume of Russian pipeline gas supplies. European countries such as Austria, Slovakia, Hungary, and Italy will continue to import gas, both through the TurkStream and the Ukrainian gas pipeline," the expert noted.
However, he warns that the limited capacity of the TurkStream and Blue Stream pipelines will play an important role. In total, they can transport a little over 30 bcm of gas.
At the same time, the volume of gas supplies to the EU will depend entirely on the geopolitical situation, President of the Association of Innovative Enterprises in the Energy Sector EnergoInnovation Mikhail Smirnov told the newspaper.
The technical side also affects the volume of supplies to the European Union, independent expert on the resources and energy market Vladimir Demidov told Izvestia. Russia cannot export large volumes of gas to the EU due to the lack of key arteries. "The main consumers of Russian pipeline gas will be the countries of the South and Southeast, including India, Pakistan, and China. If we talk about increasing LNG supplies, then, of course, it generally includes almost all of Southeast Asia," the expert believes.
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