NATO flexes its nuclear muscle to send a not-so-subtle message to Russia; Biden doubles down on call for nuclear weapons talks with Russia and China; and Beijing conducts drills to simulate blockade of Taiwan. These stories topped Tuesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia, according to TASS News Agency.
Izvestia: NATO's nuclear exercise sends strong message to Russia
NATO will practice missions involving aircraft carrying US nuclear warheads during the Steadfast Noon exercise that kicked off on October 14. The drills involve 13 countries and over 60 planes, but military-grade weapons will not be used. Experts interviewed by Izvestia point out that when choosing an area to hold the exercise, NATO sought to make sure that Russia’s strategic interests aren’t directly affected. It also wanted to show off its military might after the accession of Sweden and Finland.
NATO is definitely raising tensions by holding nuclear drills near Russia’s border, Alexey Zhuravlyov, deputy chairman of the State Duma (lower house of parliament) Committee on Defense, said. "Notably, Finland, which maintained neutrality for over 50 years, is taking part in the exercise for the first time," he noted. "This means that US nuclear weapons will be brought to the country, which has never hosted them before. The thing to keep in mind is that these weapons are equipped with gliding modules and can be launched from NATO aircraft without crossing our border. That said, the threat of an attack from Finland will significantly increase," the lawmaker emphasized.
NATO’s drills should be seen as part of a policy aimed at demonstrating the bloc’s nuclear capacity to Russia, Konstantin Blokhin, leading researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Center for Security Studies, said. "Apparently, the West is at least trying to make it look like it is raising the stakes, opting for escalation. Perhaps, it also seeks to make it clear that in order to protect Ukraine, it will be ready to commit to doing the unthinkable, up to unleashing World War III," he added.
The region for the drills was chosen for the purpose of clearly demonstrating NATO’s capabilities on the northern flank, military expert Dmitry Kornev said. According to him, both Russia and the West always respond to serious events in the opposite camp. He pointed out that Russia’s strategic nuclear forces were expected to hold drills in late October.
Media: Russia, China see through Biden's nuclear disarmament calls
It’s impossible for Moscow to engage in nuclear weapons reduction talks with the US amid a war against Russia, which involves the three Western nuclear powers, France and the United Kingdom included, the Kremlin said, commenting on US President Joe Biden’s proposal to hold such negotiations, Vedomosti writes.
The focus of the US policy is to ensure quantitative restrictions on Russian and Chinese nuclear weapons without putting Washington in a vulnerable position should an arms race break out, Dmitry Stefanovich, a researcher with the Center for International Security at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, pointed out. The race has not begun yet but the US is certainly laying the ground for one. According to the expert, the White House wants to ensure more transparency, but on its own terms.
Nuclear arms control is a hallmark talking point for US Democrats, Alexander Yermakov, military expert at the Russian International Affairs Council, noted. According to him, this talk is aimed at American voters in the upcoming presidential election, with Vice President Kamala Harris facing off against Republican candidate Donald Trump. Trump has repeatedly slammed the Biden administration for its incompetent foreign policy, which, in the Republican’s view, is raising the risk of nuclear war.
Russia and China aren’t interested in reducing their nuclear arsenals because if they do so, the US advantage in terms of conventional weapons will grow, Yermakov went on to say. "In theory, Beijing could engage in strategic security talks once it is sure of its nuclear forces and has sufficient arsenals. As for Russia, this could happen after the Ukraine conflict is over," the expert concluded.
Meanwhile, an official at the German embassy in Moscow told Izvestia that Berlin was ready for new disarmament talks with Russia. Still, even though there are increasing calls in the country for restoring diplomatic channels for communication with Moscow, Berlin is preparing to host US short and medium range missiles starting in 2025. Viktor Zavarzin, member of the Russian State Duma (lower house of parliament) Committee on Defense, believes that it’s too early for Moscow to engage in disarmament talks with Western countries. "The US has destroyed all strategic stability treaties. It seems that it’s just part of the Democratic election campaign," he stated. "As for Germany, it is simply following US foreign policy," Zavarzin added.
Media: China tells Taiwan to watch out with latest military drills
The Eastern Theater Command of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army held the Joint Sword-2024B military exercise near Taiwan on October 14. Just like in May, the drills came in response to a speech by Taiwanese administration head Lai Ching-te, which Beijing saw as incendiary, Vedomosti notes.
The drills, which took place in the Taiwan Strait, as well as north, south and east of the island, involved China’s ground troops, Navy, Air Force and missile units. According to the Chinese military, the goal was to simulate a blockade of key ports and areas and attacks on maritime and ground targets. The exercise also served "as a stern warning to separatist forces pushing for Taiwan’s independence," the army said.
Beijing is quite likely to hold such drills near Taiwan on a regular basis in the future but at this point, their taking place is a demonstrative response to the statements of Taiwan’s new head, who is far more radically minded than his predecessor Tsai Ing-wen, Vasily Kashin, director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics, stressed.
Kashin told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that "Taiwan’s eastern coast is less protected and the options of a blockade and an attack on a vulnerable area are being worked out." "An aircraft carrier makes it possible to engage in battle beyond the range of land-based aircraft, while supporting reconnaissance operations and air defense," he added.
In the meantime, Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov visited China on the same day. Defense cooperation between Moscow and Beijing goes "both ways," a source close to the Russian Defense Ministry said. In addition, the ministry announced on October 14 that Russian and Chinese warships had held live-fire exercises during air defense and anti-submarine warfare drills.
Still, Liu Jun, executive director of the Center for Russian Studies at East China Normal University, told Vedomosti that Belousov’s visit had simply coincided with the Chinese drills and that China-Russia cooperation in the field should not be viewed in relation to the Taiwan issue. "Taiwan is China’s domestic affair and it just doesn’t need anyone’s assistance here," the expert noted.
Izvestia: Russian-Pakistani joint counter-terrorism drills get under way
The joint Russian-Pakistani drills dubbed Druzhba-2024 (or Friendship-2024) have kicked off in the South Asian country. The parties will work on coordinating military efforts against terrorists in mountainous areas. Experts interviewed by Izvestia note that such exercises not only contribute to improving the skills of troops but also strengthen relations between the countries.
Service members from a motorized infantry unit stationed in the southern Volgograd Region represent Russia in the exercise. Joint tactical drills are aimed at boosting defense cooperation between the two countries, the Russian Defense Ministry said.
These drills are important as they mark a new phase in Russia's relationship with Pakistan, military expert Vladislav Shurygin pointed out. "For decades, we were on opposite sides of the border and tensions between us were considerably high," he noted. "Today, we are entering a new stage of cooperation. Exercises like this are important as they are an act of mutual trust. Undoubtedly, sharing experience is also important. The Pakistanis have their own history of fighting terrorism as they face this threat quite often. If we recall what happened in Afghanistan and Central Asia in the post-Soviet era, our country has also resisted terrorists more than once," Shurygin said. He believes that the Pakistani army can also benefit from Russia’s experience in its special military operation in Ukraine.
"Russia has been actively building relations with Pakistan in recent years, including in the field of defense. As the global landscape changes rapidly, the Global South, which includes Pakistan, is turning into one of the world’s centers of power. This is why the country is an important international partner for us, particularly in military and political terms," military expert Roman Shkurlatov emphasized.
"Terrorism has faded into the background because of turbulent events across the world, but this doesn’t mean that it’s gone," Shurlatov pointed out. "We must be prepared to repel terrorist threats," the expert added.
Vedomosti: Nobel prize winners uncover root causes of global inequality
The 2024 Prize in Economics has been awarded to Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson and James Robinson for their work on how social institutions impact a country’s ecnomy and prosperity, Vedomosti writes.
In their work, the authors highlight the significant influence European colonizers had on the economies of various countries. Acemoglu, Johnson and Robinson maintain that prosperity was achieved by the countries where colonizers initially did not exploit the local population and resources but developed democratic social institutions, namely free elections, independent courts, business and property rights.
The authors identified patterns that individual countries could adopt to enhance their economic development, Oleg Buklemishev, associate professor at Moscow State University’s Department of Macroeconomic Policy and Strategic Management, explained. The choice of winners is also largely tied to politicized views of economic growth, said Alexander Abramov, head of a laboratory analyzing institutions and financial markets at the Institute of Applied Ethno-Political Research of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
OIeg Skapenker, associate professor with the Department of Financial Markets and Financial Technology at the Plekhanov Russian Economic University, points out that the laureates' conclusions about the positive impact of social and political progress on living standards are nothing new but they may serve as a basis for developing measures to transform economies.
Still, they are unlikely to come in handy for Russia because the country "has been economically independent since the end of the Tatar-Mongol yoke," while the countries studied were Western colonies.
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