The Korean Peninsula may be heading towards a major war; NATO is looking to base US long-range missiles in Germany in an effort to deter Russia; and the US and Israel make a deal about the Jewish state's retaliatory strike on Iran. These stories topped Wednesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia? according to TASS News Agency.
Vedomosti: NATO blows up hope for peace between Koreas
The North Korean army has blown up two roads leading to the south of the Korean Peninsula. Earlier, General Staff of the Korean People's Army announced the start of construction aimed at "closing and blocking the southern border once and for all." This should come as no surprise given that in December 2023, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un announced that Pyongyang would no longer try to seek reunification with South Korea but would instead view it as a hostile state, Vedomosti writes.
The two countries are currently dealing with another problem in their relations. Earlier in October, South Korean drones carrying propaganda leaflets, launched by non-profit organizations, entered North Korea’s airspace at least three times. On October 15, the North Korean leader’s sister Kim Yo Jong stated that Pyongyang had received evidence that the South Korean military had masterminded "the hostile provocation."
The blowing up of the roads is not as big an event as it seems, Andrey Lankov, professor at Seoul’s Kookmin University, said. "The thing is that there had been no traffic along the roads that were blown up for about 80 years," he explained. Therefore, these explosions are more of a symbolic act in North Korea’s campaign to get rid of anything related to the idea of the two countries’ reunification, Lankov pointed out. He does not rule out that in theory, recognizing South Korea and North Korea as two different states could pave the way for stabilization in the future.
Kim seems to be taking a page out of what Germany once tried unsuccessfully to do, when it split into two states and built a certain wall, the expert went on to say. "This is expected to reduce the mental anguish that the North Korean people suffer as a result of hearing reports about South Korea’s relative prosperity," Lankov noted. Besides, in his words, Kim would like to form North Korea’s own national identity. The South Korean opposition has the same goals but the country’s authorities still support the idea of reunification.
It seems that the incident involving the South Korean drone was orchestrated at a lower level and was not approved by the country’s leadership, Konstantin Asmolov, leading research fellow at the Korean Studies Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of China and Contemporary Asia, pointed out. The conservatives, who are in power in South Korea, don’t control non-profit organizations sending propaganda leaflets into North Korea, said Ilya Dyachkov, associate professor with the Department of Oriental Studies at Moscow State Institute of International Relations. However, a situation of confrontation, where instead of dialogue, messages are exchanged via military acts, is quite dangerous, the analyst added.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: NATO prepares to deploy US missiles in Germany to deter Russia
NATO’s Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine (NSATU) center will soon be launched at a German military base in Wiesbaden. The facility already hosts US command making preparations for the deployment of long-range missiles aimed at countering Russia, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes, citing new NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.
NATO decided to create the NSATU center at the bloc’s July summit. Washington is expected to hand all of its related powers over to the facility before the US presidential election. The New York Times explains that the NSATU will continue operating even if Republican candidate Donald Trump, who said earlier that the US needed to stop giving any aid to the Ukrainian army, is re-elected president.
The new secretary general of the North Atlantic Alliance believes that the temporary deployment of US long-range missiles to Germany, starting in 2026, will be an additional tool to counter Russia. US President Joe Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz agreed on the missile deployment on the sidelines of the NATO summit in July. Rutte expects that US long-range missiles will remain in Europe until Germany, France and some other European countries develop similar weapons of their own. However, it’s hard to imagine this happening any time soon because other NATO countries have relatively small defense budgets compared to the US.
"While supporting Kiev, NATO is working with the US on its own aggressive plans, which are aimed against Russia. This is what Mark Rutte’s statements are about. Moscow has repeatedly said that it will give a tit-for-tat response to such actions," Lieutenant General (Ret.) Yury Netkachev, a military expert, pointed out.
The analyst noted that Moscow had strategic allies and partners, ready to support its armed forces. This is particularly evident from Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov’s recent visit to China.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: US convinces Israel to limit attacks on Iran, but for a price
US President Joe Biden’s administration has received verbal assurances from Israel that Iran’s nuclear and industrial infrastructure will not be hit in a retaliatory attack. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office explained that all military undertakings are made to defend Israel’s interests, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.
Amwaj Media, a news outlet close to Iran’s business elite, speculates that Israel agreed to soften its stance after the US promised to provide it with Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-missile systems. The first parts of a THAAD battery arrived in Israel on October 14, the Pentagon said, adding that the battery would soon be ready for use but a specific timeframe would not be announced for security reasons.
The Financial Times notes that "Israel faces a looming shortage of interceptor missiles as it shores up air defenses to protect the country from attacks by Iran and its proxies, according to industry executives, former military officials and analysts."
Iran was quick to react to the deployment of the THAAD battery to Israel, Amwaj Media reports. In this regard, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced the freezing of mediated talks with the Biden administration, which were taking place in Oman. Some think that Iran is pinning its hopes on reviving negotiations if incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris wins the upcoming presidential vote. In contrast, Tehran sees little chance of anything good happening should ex-President Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House.
Vladimir Frolov, a former employee of the Russian embassy in the US and an expert in international relations, points out that the US is horrified by the fact that Netanyahu does not have exit strategies for either Gaza or Lebanon. Washington is particularly concerned about the possibility of the Jewish state getting bogged down in Lebanon as it did during the 2006 Second Lebanon War. "Netanyahu’s rising approval rating does not bring any comfort to the US," Frolov said. According to him, Biden’s political goals to make a strategic alliance with Saudi Arabia, normalize its relations with Israel, launch a new system of self-government in the Gaza Strip with participation from the Fatah party, Egypt and Gulf nations, and facilitate the creation of two states, has failed.
Izvestia: Hollywood heavyweights throw weight behind Trump, Harris
The US presidential election is less than a month away. On November 5, the American public will make its choice between ex-President Donald Trump and current Vice President Kamala Harris. A number of A-list celebrities are also taking part in the campaign, throwing their weight behind their party's candidate, Izvestia notes.
Trump’s bid for re-election is supported by political commentator Tucker Carlson, Ultimate Fighting Championship CEO Dana White, retired wrestler Hulk Hogan and rock musician Kid Rock, as well as Elon Musk, owner of the X social media platform and one of the most influential men in the world.
Harris, meanwhile, has some true Hollywood heavyweights in her corner, the biggest being George Clooney. The democratic candidate also has megastar singer Taylor Swift at her disposal. Swift has enormous influence. According to Forbes, she is the richest female musician in the world with a net worth of $1.6 bln. She was also named Time Magazine’s Person of the Year in 2023. All this is based on the devotion of an army of fans, which borders on worship. Veteran TV personality Oprah Winfrey is also campaigning for Harris.
Still, this star power will not win or lose the election for either of the presidential contenders, Mikhail Mironyuk, associate professor with the Department of Politics and Management at the Higher School of Economics, said. He pointed out that celebrity support for candidates doesn’t really change anyone’s opinion, only confirms it.
Trump is closing the gap on Harris in opinion polls, the expert pointed out. The Democratic candidate no longer looks like the favorite as her honeymoon period seems to be over, Mironyuk added.
According to the analyst, many things still could happen before the election, including assassination attempts on the candidates. The current administration’s failures will also play a big role in the upcoming election. Overall, people are not very happy with the current government, and this could hurt Harris more than anything else, the expert concluded.
Vedomosti: Analysts expect surge in Russian gas exports to China by 2030
Russia’s exports of pipeline and liquefied natural gas (LNG) to China may rise to 85 bln cubic meters by 2030, Vedomosti writes, citing estimates by Gazprombank’s Center for Economic Forecasting. The 2030 forecast exceeds the 2023 export levels by 2.7 times. The key factors that will provide for the growth include the launch of a Far Eastern gas pipeline, swap operations with Central Asian countries and an increase in LNG supplies.
Russian gas giant Gazprom plans to launch the Far Eastern gas pipeline to the Russian-Chinese border in 2027. The pipeline will make it possible to send up to 10 bln cubic meters of gas to China every year. Today, Russia’s pipeline gas supplies only use the Power of Siberia pipeline. This year, exports are expected to top 30 bln cubic meters.
According to expert estimates, China’s demand for gas will continue to grow, passing the 500 bln cubic meter per year level in 2029-30. That said, China will remain the main market for Russian gas.
The Finam investment company forecasts that Russia’s direct pipeline gas exports to China will reach 48 bln cubic meters in 2030. This is the total combined design capacity of the Power of Siberia pipeline and the Far Eastern route, the company’s analyst Sergey Kaufman specified.
If the political situation remains the same, European Union countries may abandon Russian LNG exports in a couple of years, Kaufman pointed out. In such a situation, at least half of supplies from the Yamal LNG project will be redirected to China. However, if the EU does not ban Russian LNG imports, a large part of the facility's gas will continue to be provided to the European market because exports in this direction are more economically attractive, especially in the winter, the expert said.
The export increase to 85 bln cubic meters per year by 2030 is the lower limit of potential supplies, Kaufman emphasized. "Since import substitution efforts will continue into 2030, another couple of LNG projects may be implemented, which will particularly be directed at China," he noted.
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