Taking a closer look at Vladimir Zelensky’s "Victory Plan"; Moscow proposes bold economic initiatives at the SCO summit; and the US threatens to cut aid to Israel. These stories topped Thursday’s newspaper headlines across Russia, according to TASS News Agency.
Izvestia: Zelensky’s new 'Victory Plan' unrealistic wish list
Vladimir Zelensky’s "Victory Plan", first published on October 16, shows that Ukraine is not in control of its future, the State Duma told Izvestia. Russia considers the list of demands, which centers around Kiev being brought into NATO and the installation of a "non-nuclear deterrent package" on Ukraine’s territory, to be unrealistic. The Kremlin commented that a true peace plan would mean Kiev recognizing the futility of its current policies and reconsidering the reasons that led to the conflict.
The "Victory Plan" contains five main points. First is to make Ukraine a NATO member before the end of the armed conflict. The plan also stipulates working with partners to defeat Russian aviation, expanding the use of Ukrainian drones and missiles, and access to intelligence. In the third point, Ukraine demands the deployment of a "comprehensive non-nuclear strategic deterrence package" on its territory. Zelensky, however, did not disclose exactly what Kiev wants to set up. The fourth point emphasizes the need for harsher sanctions against Russia and strengthening Ukraine’s economy. Finally, the fifth point states that after the conflict the Ukrainian military can "use its experience to strengthen the defense of NATO and Europe" and replace the US contingent. In addition, the plan contains several "secret" provisions: the second, third and fourth points are classified and intended only for partners.
In general, Zelensky’s new plan only shows that he is trying to pass the buck to the West, State Duma Deputy and First Deputy Chairman of the Defense Committee Alexey Zhuravlev told Izvestia.
At the same time, Zelensky himself acknowledges that his plan relies heavily on the West, former Ukrainian MP Spiridon Kilinkarov told the newspaper. "Everyone is trying to shift blame for defeats onto each other. There is no real substance in this plan, let alone talk of victory. Zelensky did not even outline a vision for Ukraine’s future. The people did not hear anything new," he said. It is quite obvious that the West will respond to this plan with nothing more than hackneyed phrases like "we will continue to support Ukraine," the former MP believes. Ukraine’s "partners" have neither the ability nor the desire to offer anything to Kiev.
Meanwhile, the US approach to limiting Ukraine’s use of US long-range weapons remains the same, US Permanent Representative to NATO Julianne Smith said after Zelensky’s speech. However, she recalled that Washington had allowed Kiev to use US long-range weapons in and around Kharkov to protect the city.
"By supplying long-range missiles, the West is essentially greenlighting their use. It’s just that Ukraine can’t use them on our territory yet due to the lack of carrier aircraft," military expert and retired colonel Viktor Litovkin told Izvestia.
Izvestia: SCO emerging as key player in shaping new world order
In preparation for the meeting of the Council of Heads of Government of SCO countries, in which Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin took part representing Russia, Pakistan seriously tightened security measures in the capital. While security was highlighted at the gathering, as always, it was not the only topic on the agenda, Izvestia writes. In particular, on October 16, the Russian Prime Minister proposed several key economic initiatives, including establishing a special account for financing projects, advocated for creating an independent payment mechanism through the organization, and also announced a new forum for partners.
The main focus of this international structure, which currently unites ten countries (Belarus, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, China, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan), remains the fight against the "three forces of evil" - terrorism, separatism, and extremism, which, in fact, remains a problem for all SCO participants.
Economic issues were also on the agenda, with meetings between the Russian delegation and representatives of other countries touching heavily on this area. In particular, trilateral talks were held in Pakistan between the prime ministers of Russia, China, and Mongolia. These countries are united by the implementation of the Union East gas pipeline project.
As sanctions pressure from the West continues, achieving technological sovereignty is becoming an equally important goal. Against this background, Russia proposed to ensure mutual access to high technologies in the organization’s space.
In addition, Russian and Pakistani companies recently launched a barter trade mechanism. The idea is that this will help mitigate risks related to secondary sanctions. "It is clear that the more our trade relations develop, the more pressure Washington will put on Pakistani banks and companies. Barter is a good solution, and various mechanisms are currently being developed that would allow us to take our trade to a new level. But it is definitely not worth talking about them publicly yet," a source who attended the summit in Islamabad told Izvestia. Islamabad’s future entry into BRICS could also strengthen Russian-Pakistani cooperation. Pakistan has already applied to join the group.
Vedomosti: US threatens to cut military aid to Israel
The US has threatened to cut military aid to Israel if it does not resolve the humanitarian crisis in Gaza within 30 days, according to a joint letter from US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Secretary of State Antony Blinken sent to Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer on October 13. This is the White House’s sternest warning to the Jewish state since hostilities began over a year ago, Reuters noted. Experts interviewed by Vedomosti believe that the US’ threats are empty, and will not lead to a decrease in military aid or the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza.
According to The Times of Israel, US officials have pointed to a significant reduction in the amount of humanitarian aid entering Gaza in recent months, which they say violates the terms of the National Security Memorandum (NSM) Israel signed in March. The document requires recipients of US military aid not to use US weapons to violate human rights or restrict the flow of humanitarian aid. Failure to comply with the memorandum would put the White House in breach of US law, which would jeopardize further shipments of offensive weapons to Israel.
The US has stepped up diplomatic pressure on Israel to enhance its image as a responsible global leader, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for US and Canadian Studies Dmitry Kochegurov told Vedomosti. This move could help Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris win over Muslim voters and more left-leaning members inside her own party. "If the Israeli leadership itself realizes that it is taking the signals from Washington seriously, then the diplomatic pressure on Israel is producing results," the expert noted.
At the same time, Kochegurov added that the US’ threats are unlikely to lead to a real reduction in military aid or the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza. "I don’t rule out a reduction in the volume of US military aid if the actions of the Israeli army lead to a serious escalation in the Middle East. But these measures will only be taken in order to maintain its image as an effective mediator and regional leader," the expert believes.
Having lost the strategic initiative in the Middle East, the Biden administration has found itself in a difficult position, Chief Research Fellow at the Institute for US and Canadian Studies Vladimir Vasiliev told the newspaper. According to him, while the US is compelled to continue providing military support to Israel, cutting aid could help Republican candidate Donald Trump in the election.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: EU to condemn Georgia’s drift toward Moscow at upcoming summit
The founder of the Georgian Dream party, Bidzina Ivanishvili, said that his party has everything it needs to bring Tbilisi into the European Union "while preserving its dignity." However, he added that external forces "still want war, chaos and poverty, which will lead to the destruction of the country." Ivanishvili did not explain why he still wants to join the EU, but Brussels is preparing to finally put everything in its place, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.
According to Reuters, during the EU summit, which will be held on October 17-18 in Brussels, the leaders of the European Union will announce that the Georgian authorities are jeopardizing the European integration of their country. Tbilisi received candidate status for EU membership in December 2023, and then passed a series of laws targeting foreign agents and sexual minorities. At the same time, the country’s leadership accuses the Western "war party" of trying to open a second front against Russia in Georgia. In this regard, heads of European powers will announce that Tbilisi is moving towards rapprochement with Moscow and wish it to hold free and fair parliamentary elections scheduled for October 26. In turn, the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, accused the Georgian authorities of moving towards authoritarianism.
But the Georgian Dream is not despairing, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes. Moreover, Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze assured his constituents that the European Union and the United States would change their attitude toward his government once the Russian-Ukrainian conflict was over.
Most Georgians, however, are not very concerned about the upcoming changes. "If you ignore media publications and do not communicate with political activists, you might think that in a week there will be no elections at all," analyst Demuri Giorkhelidze told Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
Political scientist Nika Chitadze agrees with him. According to him, pre-election campaigning is visible on the streets, mainly for Georgian Dream, but overall, there is no upsurge in political activity in Tbilisi. "There will be a mass opposition rally in the capital on Sunday. There will probably be so many people that all of downtown will be blocked. But so far there have been no significant actions. On the other hand, pro-government and opposition political activists are preparing for clashes after the elections," Chitadze believes.
Kommersant: Russia plans to waive import duties to support aluminum production
The Russian government continues to support aluminum producers - the Ministry of Industry and Trade has prepared a draft resolution to reduce import duties on raw materials for metal production to zero by the end of 2025. This will allow market participants to remain competitive, Kommersant writes. Aluminum company Rusal, which is itself involved in projects to increase the production of raw materials in Russia, is currently facing a decline in demand, and any support will be valuable, analysts believe.
The Russian government will exempt raw materials for aluminum production from a 5% import duty, according to a draft resolution prepared by the Ministry. The benefit will be provided for aluminum fluoride and electrodes supplied from May 2, 2024, through December 31, 2025.
According to the explanatory note, the measure is aimed at ensuring that aluminum industry enterprises are supplied with the necessary raw materials "in order to achieve the indicators of production, consumption, export and import of certain types of Russian products established in the Strategy for the Development of the Metallurgical Industry." The document assumes an increase in aluminum production from 3.9 mln tons by the end of 2021 to 4.9 mln tons by 2030.
The Ministry of Industry and Trade confirmed the preparation of the measure and added that the validity period of exchange rate export duties, including on aluminum, will expire on December 31, 2024.
Rusal’s financial statements show that production costs in the first half of 2024 were 14% lower than in the first half of 2023, while prices saw a slight increase, chief strategist at Vector Capital investment company Maxim Khudalov told Kommersant. At the same time, Rusal’s adjusted EBITDA margin rose to 13.8% from 4.9% a year earlier.
According to the analyst, the weakening ruble is contributing to the higher margins for primary aluminum producers, but companies may face a decline in demand due to stagnation in the construction and engineering sectors against the backdrop of high lending rates and high metal prices. In this regard, the opportunity to save money is "small, but it’s still support" for these players, Khudalov said.
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