Russia has robust air defenses to counter Western long-range weapons; the EU plans to launch a live military exercise amid Russian activity in Ukraine. Meanwhile, the US has approved the use of ATACMS missiles within Russia. These stories topped Tuesday's newspaper headlines in Russia.
Media: Russian air defenses can counter Western long-range missiles
Russian air defenses can effectively intercept long-range missiles, experts polled by Izvestia daily said. They can be downed by S-300 and S-400 long-range surface-to-air missile systems during their flight and by S-350, Tor and Pantsir air defense systems in their final flight path. However, Russia’s Smolensk, Kaluga, Lipetsk, Voronezh, and Kursk regions, as well as Crimea and the Krasnodar region, can be exposed to the use of weapons with a range of 300 kilometers by Ukraine, experts warn.
Commenting on a potential zone of destruction, former Lieutenant General Aitech Bizhev, who previously served as deputy commander-in-chief of the Joint CIS Air Defense System, told Izvestia that if fired from the Kiev-controlled area of Kherson, an ATACMS missile can hit Kerch on the Crimean Peninsula, which would pose a threat to the Crimean Bridge. Missiles fired from the Zaporozhye region can target all of Crimea. The bordering zone of Kursk will also be exposed, he added, as well as Voronezh in central Russia and other major cities and areas. "But it is important to mention here that we have destroyed both Storm Shadows and ATACMS missiles, and there have been no unsolvable issues with downing those," the expert said with confidence.
Military expert Viktor Litovkin agrees. In an interview with Rossiyskaya Gazeta, he said that such missiles have long been used in the special military operation zone, and Russian air defense systems have been able to detect and counter them effectively. In general, these Western-provided long-range missiles are far from new, as they were first tested in 1988, and in 1991 they were used for the first time during Operation Desert Storm, Litovkin explained. "Hence, we know what we are dealing with. All our anti-missile systems - from Pantsirs to S-400s - can down ATACMS. At the same time, massive or coordinated missile strikes can be especially dangerous," he warned.
The expert suggested that, among other reasons, Ukraine has lately intensified drone attacks on Russian territory to conduct training before launching ATACMS. He views the British-French Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles as much more dangerous, as they can fly at ultra-low altitudes, and the missile body is made of radio-absorbing materials, which reduces the likelihood of their detection. However, even though these missiles have a longer range of around 560 kilometers, Russian air defense systems have learned to counter them, too, he concluded.
Izvestia: EU to conduct live military exercise amid Russian activity in Ukraine
Large-scale rapid response drills to be held in Germany from November 25 to December 10, involving more than 1,700 troops from 15 EU countries, will occur amid Russia’s actions in Ukraine, the European Commission stated. "Against the backdrop of the deteriorating security situation in and around Europe, <…> the European Union is enhancing its capabilities to respond to crises that pose an immediate threat to the bloc and its citizens," the European Union’s foreign policy spokesperson, Peter Stano, told Izvestia.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin has repeatedly stressed that the root cause of the Ukraine conflict does not lie in Moscow’s actions but rather in Western policies.
In its official statement, which does not, however, mention Russia, the EU explains that the Live Military Exercise (LIVEX) is "an important step in the development of the full operational capacity of the European Union Rapid Deployment Capacity (EU RDC)." According to the document, the EU RDC, which will be fully operational next year, will allow for the rapid deployment of up to 5,000 soldiers "to address a crisis outside the EU’s borders."
Creating a special force with a similar purpose was discussed when the EU was established, said Vadim Koroshchupov, a junior research fellow at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO RAS), with Russia identified as one of the threats this force should respond to. The situation in the Asia-Pacific is also considered, he explained. It involves modular military formations that can be re-equipped depending on the tasks assigned, the expert added. However, he doubts that rapid deployment forces can be used for intervention in Ukraine anytime soon.
While the upcoming exercise cannot be overlooked, its threat should not be overstated, French analyst in geopolitics and strategy Cyril de Lattre argues. "In theory, one might assume that it could be used to position troops ahead of their rapid deployment in Ukraine, if needed. But, on the other hand, this is something that cannot be done without a pan-European consensus and a vote, of course. And the EU cannot reach such a consensus," he maintained.
Vedomosti: Experts weigh in on US approval for ATACMS missiles in Russia’s Kursk Region
Germany confirmed that the Biden administration has notified Berlin about its approval for Ukraine to strike inside Russia using ATACMS long-range ballistic missiles, Deputy Government Spokesperson for the German government Wolfgang Buchner announced on November 18.
On November 17, The New York Times (NYT) reported on this approval, citing sources. On Monday, Axios revealed that the decision had been communicated to Kiev about three days earlier. Le Figaro wrote on Sunday evening that France and Great Britain had granted Kiev the same authorization to use their SCALP/Storm Shadow missiles. However, later, the French newspaper retracted this claim from its website.
On Monday, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov criticized the US decision as reckless and dangerous. He recalled that Russian President Vladimir Putin had previously expressed his views on the matter. On September 12, the Russian leader noted that if the decision to use longer-range missiles against Russia were ever made, it would be a significant shift and could indicate that NATO is at war with Russia.
The scale of future escalation will depend on Russia’s response, said Andrey Kortunov, research director of the Russian International Affairs Council. This response could include targeting US facilities, transferring weapons to adversaries of the United States, or expanding military operations into outer space or cyberspace. Nonetheless, the decision to strike targets inside Russia would take the conflict to a new level and broaden its scope, the expert argued. As for the allegations that Britain and France have permitted Ukraine to carry out such strikes, corresponding media reports were withdrawn because the decision from London and Paris is not final, and their guidance systems rely on US technologies, requiring US authorization, Kortunov explained to Izvestia.
While the situation on the battlefield will not change significantly, it will become more complex, Dmitry Stefanovich, a researcher with the Center for International Security at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, pointed out. More areas where troops are concentrated, supply depots, and airfields may be targeted. Furthermore, civilian infrastructure could be hit either intentionally or accidentally, he warned.
Izvestia: IDF claims airstrikes have significantly weakened Hezbollah’s capabilities
Hezbollah’s missile capacity has been reduced as a result of airstrikes carried out by the Israeli army, a representative of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), Anna Ukolova, informed Izvestia. She stated that attacks on weapons supply routes in Syria have also undermined the Lebanese Shia movement.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah’s chief negotiator, Lebanese parliamentary speaker Nabih Berri, stated that there is more than a 50% chance of reaching an agreement on a ceasefire with the Jewish state.
"There is a possibility of a ceasefire, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who opposes the idea, may hinder these efforts, so more time is needed for things to become clearer," Professor of History at the Lebanese University, Jamal Wakim, noted to Izvestia.
Later on Tuesday, US special envoy for Lebanon, Amos Hochstein, is expected to visit Lebanon before proceeding to Israel. The purpose of his trip is to secure a ceasefire agreement that has already been prearranged with the Jewish state and is now awaiting Lebanon’s response.
Israeli media outlets reported that Russia is prepared to assist in efforts to resolve the conflict, with Kan-11 alleging that Moscow would help prevent Iranian weapons shipments to Hezbollah via Syria, an idea dismissed by Russian special presidential envoy for Syria, Alexander Lavrentyev.
"Russia could contribute to ending the violence and help achieve a permanent ceasefire since it maintains constructive relations with both Israel and Hezbollah. The question is whether Israel is willing to delegate this issue to Russia, rather than to the United States," retired Lebanese Army Brigadier General George Nader told Izvestia. He argued that the prospect of a ceasefire remains uncertain because Israel is resistant to the idea and sets impractical conditions, believing that the other side will reject them.
A source close to the Shia movement informed Izvestia that Hezbollah is still hesitant to accept Israeli proposals and is not ready to halt shelling the territory of the Jewish state.
A covert visit to Moscow by Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs, Ron Dermer, as reported by Israel’s Channel 12, citing high-level officials, should likely be interpreted in this context. After visiting Russia, Dermer traveled to the United States for a meeting with future US President Donald Trump, Axios reported. Washington would prefer to communicate with Iran directly and would not welcome Moscow’s involvement in any future settlement process in Lebanon, Wakim believes.
Vedomosti: Russia to nearly double investment in oil production by 2050
By 2050, investments in crude oil production will rise 1.8 times from last year, reaching 4.5 trillion rubles ($45 billion), according to a report prepared by the Russian Energy Ministry for the draft energy strategy through 2050, obtained by Vedomosti and confirmed by a source familiar with the preparation of the document’s finalization.
According to the ministry, the majority of the increase in capital investments will occur in 2024-2025, with funding totaling 3.8 trillion rubles ($38 billion) next year, a 1.5-fold growth from the previous year’s volume, to be followed by slower growth in subsequent years.
Analysts interviewed by Vedomosti were divided in their evaluations of the Energy Ministry’s forecast. Investment strategist at Arikapital Sergey Suvorov and Dmitry Kasatkin, a partner at Kasatkin Consulting, consider the ministry’s estimates to be quite plausible. Such trends would be in line with plans to maintain oil production at 540 million metric tons until 2050, which would enable Russia to remain among the top three global oil suppliers, Suvorov suggested.
Meanwhile, senior analyst at BCS World of Investments Ronald Smith disagrees, stating that there is no reason for a sharp increase in capital investments in the near term. He explained that Russian oil producers already significantly increased their drilling volumes in 2022-2023. Due to the OPEC+ deal, Russia now has idle capacity of at least 1 million barrels per day, Smith pointed out.
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