Moscow revises its nuclear doctrine following the US approval of long-range attacks inside Russia; Russia challenges Western hegemony within the G20; and Israel, Lebanon move toward a ceasefire. These stories have topped Wednesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia, according to TASS News Agency.
Media: Moscow revises nuclear doctrine as US approves long-range attacks inside Russia
Russian President Vladimir Putin has, in a decree, approved "The Foundations of Russia’s State Policy in the Field of Nuclear Deterrence." Now, Moscow can give a nuclear response to an act of aggression involving conventional weapons that create "a critical security threat" not only to Russia but also Belarus, the other member of the Union State. The weapons whose massive use in an attack may lead to a nuclear retaliation now include cruise missiles, drones, hypersonic and other aircraft, as well as tactical planes. Earlier, only ballistic missiles were mentioned in this regard, Vedomosti notes.
Most of the changes are aimed at clarifying Russia’s nuclear doctrine, Russian International Affairs Council expert Alexander Yermakov points out. "Earlier documents said that a nuclear response was possible to the use of ballistic missiles, but now, the doctrine also covers drones and cruise missiles," the expert observes. The timing for making the changes public most likely was due to the United States’ decision to allow Ukraine to attack Russia with US-supplied missiles, the expert further explained. The nuclear doctrine is first and foremost a declaration aimed at making it clear for potential adversaries what situations may involve the use of nuclear weapons, Yermakov emphasized.
The move to revise the doctrine stems from a whole range of recent developments and trends, Dmitry Stefanovich, an expert with the Center for International Security at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, commented. "We can see some nuclear countries building up their arsenals, while others are discussing the prospects for such a buildup; new possessors of nuclear weapons are likely to emerge, and in general, the nuclear factor has increased in recent years. However, the current tough confrontation with the collective West regarding Russia’s special military operation was also a reason, particularly in terms of assessing the capacities of various aerospace weapons," Stefanovich noted.
Military expert Vladislav Shurygin told Izvestia that it was the situation in the Kursk Region that made Russia change the wording regarding a potential response to the use of conventional weapons in an act of aggression posing a critical threat "to sovereignty and territorial integrity." "NATO is not directly involved here but still, it is flooding and providing the Ukrainian armed forces with equipment, weapons, satellite and intelligence data, and information resources," he explained. This is why the updated doctrine definitely arises out of the recent developments, Shurygin concluded.
Media: Russia effectively challenges Western hegemony within the G20
Participants in a G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, adopted a joint statement without committing to specific obligations. The document focuses primarily on issues of hunger and climate change and includes only some vague remarks about the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Middle East crisis, as reported by Vedomosti.
The G20 comprises several Global South countries that do not align with the West’s position on Ukraine, Denis Denisov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, observed. In his view, G20 members avoided emphasizing the Ukraine crisis to prevent highlighting the divisions among them. Meanwhile, hunger, poverty, and environmental protection are critical issues for leading G20 nations such as China and India, the analyst explained.
The period until US President-elect Donald Trump takes office is not the ideal time to make decisions on Ukraine, Ivan Skorikov, head of the Ukraine Department at the Institute of CIS Studies, remarked. According to him, when adopting final statements, most of the summit’s Western participants follow the White House’s position, while participants from Global South countries understand the complexity of the situation, as well as Russia’s objectives, and are unwilling to push for a solution to the issue by proposing some initiatives, the expert asserted.
"The summit has once again made it clear that Russia cannot be ‘canceled.’ In 2022, there were calls to exclude it from the G20, but even then, Western leaders had to remind the extremists that it’s simply impossible. The countries of the global majority don’t question Russia’s role, particularly in ensuring energy and food security, which is why they rightfully see attempts to exclude Russia from this process as politically motivated actions that are detrimental to their interests," Anton Bespalov, program director at the Valdai International Discussion Club, told Izvestia.
Declarations usually reflect the most unified positions possible and are often considered to be watered-down documents, Bespalov explained. Still, in his view, when it comes to the G20, diplomatic and expert activities are more important than the final outcome because each and every member must preserve a platform for dialogue.
Izvestia: Israel, Lebanon move toward ceasefire agreement
The Lebanese authorities have approved a plan to resolve relations with Israel proposed by the US administration. US deputy presidential assistant Amos Hochstein arrived in Lebanon on November 19 to discuss the prospects for a ceasefire and a peace agreement. However, the conditions proposed to end the conflict are expected to favor Israel, Izvestia reports.
The draft agreement stipulates that the Hezbollah Shia movement’s forces will be withdrawn from the border with Israel, replaced by the Lebanese army, which will be supported by the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon. A monitoring commission is set to be established to oversee the situation. The document also includes a demand from Tel Aviv to grant Israel the right to resume military operations if Hezbollah violates the agreements. Lebanon fears that it may authorize Israeli authorities to conduct an open-ended military operation.
Middle East expert Andrey Ontikov argued that if the Israeli leadership genuinely sought to bring the country’s citizens back to their homes, the US plan could indeed prove viable. "Overall, it might be possible to end the violence in southern Lebanon, especially since the Israelis initially viewed the operation as a short-term one. They claimed it would last days, not months, but it has lasted much longer. In essence, it could make sense for the Israelis to wrap it up, ensure security on the northern front, and focus on the Gaza Strip," the expert said.
According to him, what complicates the situation is that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may be inclined to act differently. Outgoing US President Joe Biden’s administration is a lame duck at the moment, as it will soon be replaced by the incoming Donald Trump administration. Everyone is aware of Trump’s particularly warm relationship with Israel, the specialist explained. In this context, the question arises whether Netanyahu will want to delay the operation simply to wait for Trump to return to power and see what he will do. As for Trump, he is expected to take a pro-Israeli and anti-Iranian stance, the analyst concluded.
Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Uranium prices surge after Russia’s ban on exports to the US
Uranium spot prices have risen by five percent to $84 per pound. Experts interviewed by Rossiyskaya Gazeta believe that the market has reacted to the Russian government’s move to limit the export of low-enriched uranium in response to the US restrictions on Russian nuclear fuel imports that took effect in late summer.
The market’s reaction seems quite logical, Maxim Maximov, an associate professor at the Plekhanov Russian Economic University, said. "Russian nuclear fuel accounts for about 20% of US consumption. It’s going to be difficult to replace these volumes quickly," he explained. Many sellers are in no hurry to close the deficit, waiting for uranium prices to rise even further. In this regard, Maximov believes that we will see attempts to evade sanctions. Logistics routes via China are likely to be employed, with intermediaries demanding additional charges. "As a result, one can say that the overall upward trend in nuclear fuel prices will persist at least in the short and medium term," Maximov noted.
Russian exports meant for the Americans may be redirected to Asia and the Middle East, where the Rosatom State Atomic Energy Corporation has strong ties and nuclear fuel demand is on the rise. India, China, and Iran will be the most likely destinations. Clearly, the Russian budget should not be expected to suffer major losses due to the country’s refusal to export uranium to the US, Maximov said.
The analyst believes that identifying the drivers that will set the trends in the nuclear fuel market requires assessing how much the strongest economies will depend on nuclear power generation. In this regard, the situation in India and China—the most powerful economies of the Global South—looks crucial, along with the outcome of the US presidential election. Donald Trump's return to the White House and his ambitious plans imply an increase in the US economy’s energy intensity. Meanwhile, nuclear power accounts for over 20% of total power generation in the US, which means that global demand for nuclear fuel will at least remain steady.
Rossiyskaya Gazeta: Global gas market may face shortages in 2025-2027
The gas market may face supply shortages in 2025-2027 instead of the expected abundance. The reasons include delays in the launch of new liquefied natural gas (LNG) production facilities in the US, the possible halt of Russian gas transit via Ukraine, and sanctions against Russian LNG projects, Rossiyskaya Gazeta reports.
Alexey Grivach, deputy director general of the National Energy Security Fund, points out that the market can already experience gas shortages. Prices remain high despite Europe’s economic challenges. It’s not all smooth sailing in Asia either. Problems may emerge in the European market in the winter if there are long periods of cold, especially when combined with other negative factors.
Sergey Vetchinin, author of the industry-related Telegram channel "Oil and Gas World," believes that as a result of delays in the launch of new LNG capacities and sanctions that effectively block exports within the Arctic LNG 2 project (where the issue lies in potential customers’ fear of being exposed to secondary sanctions for purchasing gas from a sanctioned project), gas shortages in some segments of the market are quite possible.
Maxim Malkov, head of Kept’s services practice targeting oil and gas companies, is more optimistic. The existing LNG production capacities are largely enough to meet gas demand, and shortages are unlikely to emerge if the situation remains stable, he said. The expert points out that Europe is generally reducing gas consumption; Russian pipeline gas exports to China are growing; Japan is experiencing a revival of nuclear power, while South Asian nations still deal with major infrastructure limitations on LNG imports, so demand is not expected to increase. Gas shortages may emerge only if a number of factors combine, Malkov noted. Those include increased economic activity in Asia, a cold winter, a hot summer in Europe and Asia, and incidents reducing the production capacity of certain LNG plants.
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