The USA has published another scenario of military actions against Russia in the Baltic region. The famous Jamestown Foundation, which is close to American military circles, published on October 25 a transcript of discussion on how to "better protect" Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania from the so-called Russian threat.
The Oxford University’s Changing Character of War Centre was another organizer of the discussion, which was based on the report titled "How to defend the Baltic States" by Richard Hooker, a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation.
The report describes how the USA on NATO's behalf attacks Russia from the Polish territory together with the Polish army unwinding military actions in Russia's Kaliningrad region under the pretext of "protecting the Baltic states from the Russian attack." The report is full of propaganda clichés like "revanchist Russia". The report expresses "confidence" that NATO will "win" and that the Kaliningrad region will become a part of Poland. Such developments are presented as "reparation of damages" for Crimea's reconnection with Russia. Naturally, this provocative scenario breeds tensions in the region.
It's not the first time that such scenarios are published. The USA and the UK are constantly preparing such reports without bothering themselves with seeking pretexts. Just look at the 2015 scenario by American channel Vox that dealt with clashes between Russian and American military units in Estonia, or the 2017 BBC series about similar clashes in Latvia, or the proposal by German politician Manfred Woerner, the might-have-been president of the European Parliament, to place elements of American missile defense in Latvia that he made in February 2019, or the statement by US Air Forces in Europe Commander Jeffrey Harrigian made in September 2019 that the Pentagon has a plan of breaking through a multilayer air defense in the Kaliningrad region.
It is rather naïve to consider these scenarios separately, just as it is naïve to think that this is the full list of American aggressive intentions regarding Russia in the Baltic region or that these scenarios are just distracting considerations of American strategists. It is clear that practical military preparations are behind them.
NATO acts as a leaf in all these scenarios, but there is just one beneficiary and that is the USA. So, who these scenarios are addressed to?
For Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania these American scenarios are a reminder that the USA treats the Baltic states as an irritant for Russia and as a military springboard. Moreover, the Baltic region is a comfortable secondary market for outdated American military equipment. Baltic politicians and people will play a background role. By the way, representatives of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania didn't take part in this discussion.
Another addressee is Baltic neutral states, Sweden and Finland. It seems that the American use their military scenarios to test the Swedish and Finnish reaction to possible American military actions in the Baltic region. The Swedes and the Finns keep silence, although they are quite active in other aspects of interaction in the Baltic region and seek domination there. Who would only tell them that any activity in the Baltic region can be discussed only when there is peace there?
Another addressee is Poland that thinks that its role in America's military plans somehow differs from the one of the Baltic states. No way does it differ! Well, maybe in terms of inflated ego that American strategists so skillfully use. Its place on stage is near the Baltic states.
The general message of the American scenarios seems to justify the presence of American military units in Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Estonia in the eyes of local population, to rotate personnel, to tame local population, and to forward NATO expenditures of these countries to hosting American servicemen.
It is possible that the Americans may also be deluding themselves thinking that Russia could get accustomed to a possibility of waging a local war on the Russia territory. Maybe the Americans think that in case of aggression Russia will limit itself to a local theater of war. But this is a profound mistake!