Restoration of the Russian economy will begin in the Q3 of 2020, chief economist of VEB.RF Andrey Klepach said on Monday.
"In the Q3, the Russian economy will begin to overcome the negative effects of declining oil prices and coronavirus. We expect a recovery trend. The government’s measures taken to support the economy and the agreements reached within OPEC+ will play a big part," Klepach said.
In addition, according to the economist, the deal to limit OPEC+ oil production will help to avoid chaos in the oil market and raise oil prices to $34-44 per barrel. "Since Russia's budget is based on the price of $42, this will allow the government to fulfill all its social obligations, but in the coming years budget plans need to be built focusing on low oil prices," TASS quoted him as saying.
At the same time, he emphasized that the self-isolation regime had an impact on all sectors of the economy, but most of all on small and medium-sized businesses. "Soon, the measures already taken by the government will begin to work … at the same time, additional measures are needed to restart economic growth and especially the activities of small and medium-sized businesses. Experts discuss the possibility of providing all employees in the most affected sectors, including individual entrepreneurs, grants or subsidies at the minimum wage level or higher. Moreover, the burden of payments between business and the state could be divided in a 50/50 proportion. Other budgetary and credit incentives are possible. The government will soon come out with a new package that additional stimulus measures," Klepach concluded.