Who’s winning depends on who you listen to / News / News agency Inforos
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Who’s winning depends on who you listen to

Polls say Biden, metrics say Trump

Who’s winning depends on who you listen to

So, President Trump contracted the Wuhan Virus. As of this writing it is unclear exactly how he got it or when, though the announcement of Amy Coney Barrett’s nomination to the Supreme Court is widely suspected. The president tested positive Thursday night and spent most of Friday at the White House before checking into Walter Reed Army Medical Center.

Trump stage-managed every moment. To show he was healthy, Trump walked out to the South Lawn of the White House and boarded Marine One. Over the weekend, he posted two short videos from Walter Reed’s splendidly appointed Presidential Suite. Trump looked well and in good spirits, if less orange than usual. Groups of Trump supporters spontaneously gathered outside the hospital. On Sunday afternoon, the president did a quick drive-by of the well-wishers and later that night bought them pizza.  Doctors discharged the president at 6:30 PM Monday evening. Back at the White House, Trump surmounted the south balcony and dramatically removed his mask. He then made a brief statement about COVID, ‘Don’t let it dominate you. Don’t be afraid of it,’ the president said. Democrats were enraged but Republicans cheered.

Press spokesman Kaylee McEnany contracted COVID as have several Republican Senators. Democrats gloated.  “This is tragic, it’s very sad, but it also is something that, again, going into crowds, unmasked, and all the rest, was sort of a brazen invitation for this to happen,” said House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. In the senate, Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is arguing that the senate should delay Judge Amy Coney Barrett’s confirmation hearings. Judiciary chair Senator Lindsey Graham has reaffirmed that hearings will begin remotely, if necessary, on October 12th. 

After first debate, the press and Democrats slammed Trump’s tone, demeaner, and interruptions of Biden and, once again, accuse Trump of racism. Trump didn’t really condemn the Proud Boys when Joe Biden brought them up, the press and Democrats say. ‘The who?’ readers across the globe are asking. While this observer knows who the Proud Boys are, 95% of Americans don’t. The Proud Boys were founded as a joke by Gavin McGinnis, a man who himself defies easy description - look him up. The Proud Boys are a ‘Chauvinistically Western’ group of ‘manly men’ who like to lift weights, drink beer, and hold Pro-American parades. Meanwhile, Biden refused to condemn Antifa and called them an idea not a group. For months now, Antifa and Black Lives Matter have rioted across America. Some idea.

Yet almost every survey shows Biden winning on November 3rd. The latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll gives Biden a fourteen-point lead of Trump. A poll conducted by the New York Times has Biden easily beating Trump in swing states like Florida, Pennsylvania, and Arizona. Other polls say the GOP will be wiped out in the House and Senate.  Republican Armageddon certainly seems plausible if voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of the Wuhan Virus. It is also plausible that the voters have simply tired of Trump. If so, Biden’s basement campaign is working.

Or, if one likes, pollsters actively message their numbers to help Biden. Pollsters use ‘turnout models’ estimating the number of voting Democrats, Republicans, and Independents to weight the results. The above-mentioned NBC News poll claims the Democrats will have a +9-turnout advantage on November 3rd. Going back to 1988, the average Democrat advantage over the GOP is +4. That advantage was +7 in 2008 and +6 in 2012 when Democrats came out in droves to vote for Obama. There is no way Democrats are as enthused about the old, doddering Joe Biden, or so the argument goes.

Trump voter enthusiasm is apocalyptic. Everywhere one see’s Trump yard-signs, flags, bumper stickers, and MAGA hats. Supporters pack Trump rallies and hold their own private events. Trump boat and car parades are a common occurrence. More than 18 Million Republicans came out to vote for Trump in the GOP primary. The Primary was uncontested. That’s observation.

Here’s some hard facts. The GOP is vastly outpacing Democrat registrations of new voters in Pennsylvania, Florida, and other battleground states. In Florida, the Republicans have halved the traditional Democrat voter registration lead since 2016. The Trump campaign also boast an army of more than two million volunteers which has been door knocking all year.  Biden’s campaign is just now getting volunteers into the field.  Trump is campaigning in states that Hillary won in 2016, and so is Biden, meaning there’s less time for Democrats to go into the Trump states. These are the facts on the ground.

Either Biden and the Democrats have a huge lead in the polls, or the polls are wrong, and Trump’s organization will win the election. Can the polls (virtually all of them) really be wrong? For Democrats there is one foreboding fact: polls predicted a big Hillary win in 2016.

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