The world’s five nuclear powers held a closed-door meeting in Dubai; work to rebuild the government system has begun in Syria; and the OSCE plans to start preparing Ukraine to join the EU and NATO. These stories have topped Thursday’s newspaper headlines across Russia, according to TASS News Agency.

Kommersant: Dubai hosts closed-door meeting of global nuclear powers

Representatives of five nuclear-armed states – Russia, the United States, China, France, and Great Britain – attended a closed-door meeting in Dubai. It marked the first full-fledged consultations under China's chairmanship of the group of five nuclear-weapon nations (P-5). According to a statement released by the Chinese Foreign Ministry, the focus of the meeting was on nuclear doctrines. This approach is particularly relevant as Russia updates its nuclear doctrine, Kommersant writes.

The meeting took place on December 4, but the Chinese Foreign Ministry issued a report on the matter several days later. Such a gap occurred because, once consultations conclude, member states work meticulously to finalize a joint communique.

The P-5 group, created at the UK’s initiative in 2009 to support the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), is a unique platform in the current situation. Unlike many other multilateral mechanisms, which have become largely dysfunctional amid heightened confrontation between global powers, this platform remains generally operational.

Center for Energy and Security Studies Director Anton Khlopkov points out that for Moscow, the nuclear P-5 group is first and foremost "an important channel for conveying Russia’s concerns about strategic risks related to the conflict around Ukraine and the doctrinal changes in Russia’s fundamental documents determining the country’s nuclear policy, which stem from escalatory steps by the US and other Western countries."

Meanwhile, the group’s agenda is not limited to doctrines. "It seems that the P-5 channel could be used for discussions of risks pertaining to the potential proliferation of nuclear weapons. In recent months, certain countries in Europe, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East have made more and more statements about their interest in acquiring these weapons of mass destruction," Khlopkov noted. "However, judging by the available information, it’s Western countries that appear unwilling to hold such discussions within the P-5," he added.

Still, the expert emphasizes that Russia’s initiative to set up a P-5 expert group of non-government specialists from the five countries, which was tested during Moscow’s chairmanship, has now become a regular element of dialogue. "This can be considered an important achievement of the Russian chairmanship of the group," Khlopkov observed.

Media: Efforts to rebuild Syria’s government system continue

The recent announcement of the formation of a new government in Syria has sparked concern among certain sections of the opposition because the cabinet consists exclusively of ministers from the self-proclaimed Idlib administration, Izvestia reports.

The start of a process to form a government poses challenges in several aspects, Anas Joudeh, founder of the Damascus-based Nation Building Movement, explained to the paper. At the political level, it’s a homogeneous government created by a single political force, which does not imply consensus. Jamal Suleiman, a representative of the Cairo opposition group and a member of the Syrian Negotiations Committee, similarly believes that the formation of such a government will not facilitate a transition period.

Work to replace Bashar Assad’s government began in Syria on December 10, when militants appointed Mohammed al-Bashir to form an interim cabinet, Vedmosti notes. In the past, he served as the leader of a "salvation government" established by Jihadists from the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group (HTS, designated as a terrorist organization and outlawed in Russia) in the Idlib province.

In theory, al-Bashir and the HTS are capable of setting up new government agencies in the country, Ibragim Ibragimov, a researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, remarked. According to him, the new premier has vast experience in administration, and while working in the rebel government in Idlib, he managed to stabilize the situation in the region. Another thing to keep in mind is that medium-and lower-level personnel will continue to perform their duties, the expert added.

Still, the HTS coming to power does not mean an end to the civil war, Andrey Zeltyn, a senior lecturer at the Higher School of Economics’ School of Asian Studies, said. In the expert’s view, foreign militants present in the region, particularly those from post-Soviet countries, may become the source of another wave of instability. "This is clear to regional political elites, which is why, unlike European countries and the US, they are wary about Islamists taking power.

Some of the militants could return home and try to create instability in their countries. Tajikistan is at special risk. It’s no use making agreements with them, and they are also unlikely to integrate into society," the expert explained. External actors will try to use the potential of foreign militants to achieve their goals in the world’s other trouble spots, Ibragimov stressed.

Izvestia: OSCE to start preparing Ukraine to join EU, NATO

Petr Mares, the special envoy for Ukraine under the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) chairmanship, will supervise over 20 projects adopted without Russia's involvement, while also working to prepare Kiev to join the European Union and NATO, the Czech diplomat revealed to Izvestia. Meanwhile, Moscow did not give the go-ahead for the establishment of such a post in the organization, Russian Permanent Representative to the OSCE Alexander Lukashevich noted. Such actions by Kiev’s allies run counter to the principle of consensus that is key within the OSCE, further contributing to its politicization.

Notably, Mares also calls for restoring the OSCE’s mission in Ukraine. The organization's special monitoring mission was launched in 2014 and ended in 2022, after the start of Russia’s special military operation. Still, it’s not quite clear how this could be done given that such a step must be agreed upon by all member states. However, the countries that support Kiev could, in theory, opt for a reckless scheme to establish their own mission without consent from Russia and Belarus.

Russia will view such initiatives from the West as proof of their direct involvement in the conflict, Rodion Miroshnik, a Russian Foreign Ministry ambassador-at-large overseeing the Kiev regime’s crimes, emphasized. "Russia will not be satisfied with freezing the conflict and preserving the remaining part of Ukraine as a toxic enclave, which would allow it to build up strength for escalating tensions once again. Ukraine must stop posing a danger to Russia, which was included as a condition in the draft Istanbul accords. If paramilitary units are deployed without Russia’s consent—even if some attempt to label them ‘peacekeeping forces’—this will be perceived as direct involvement in the conflict, with all the ensuing consequences," the Russian diplomat told Izvestia.

According to him, the possibility of resolving the conflict through the use of peacekeepers is not relevant at this point. In June 2024, President Vladimir Putin outlined the conditions for Russia to engage in talks with Ukraine. Those include Kiev withdrawing troops from the Donetsk and Lugansk people’s republics and the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions, abandoning its aspirations to join NATO, implementing measures to guarantee Ukraine’s non-nuclear status, and lifting sanctions on Russia.

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: West seeks to scare Central Asia out of cooperation with Russia

The development of the nuclear energy sector in Central Asia has sparked a geopolitical confrontation between Russia and the West. As work commenced in Uzbekistan to build a nuclear power plant, the US ambassador urged the country’s authorities to be cautious when choosing a technical partner. French President Emmanuel Macron earlier sent a similar message to Kazakhstan, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.

Moscow and Washington propose contrasting strategies to Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan amid increasing energy shortages in the Central Asian countries. Russia advocates the construction of hydroelectric and nuclear power plants, while the US and its Western partners promote green energy. However, the use of such technologies requires major investment, which could be a significant burden for the economically unstable countries in Central Asia.

Alexander Vorobyov, head of the Center for Public Diplomacy and Global Policy Analysis at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Oriental Studies, believes that the US seeks to ensure a comprehensive strengthening of its influence in Uzbekistan. However, in the expert’s opinion, Tashkent will adopt a cautious stance. The current nuclear energy projects are unlikely to be affected because their disruption would primarily harm Uzbekistan itself.

Darya Rekeda, a leading expert at the Higher School of Economics’ Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies, notes that the construction of nuclear power plants in Central Asia has become one of the most hotly debated issues in the region. This is particularly true for Uzbekistan, a country facing serious energy shortages. The situation is similar in neighboring Kazakhstan. Even though the country’s people backed the initiative to build a nuclear power plant in a recent referendum, a contractor has not been chosen yet. This highlights the political sensitivity of the nuclear power plant’s construction in Kazakhstan. "Various external players, including Russia, China, South Korea, and Western nations, have vested interests here. In particular, for Paris, it’s important to secure a contract to build a nuclear power plant because Kazakhstan has the world’s largest uranium reserves and France needs uranium as its energy system mostly depends on nuclear generation," Rekeda pointed out.

As for Washington, it’s focused on the regional political situation. "The US is concerned about the increasing influence of China and Russia in the region and seeks to distance Central Asia from the two countries as much as possible," Rekeda concluded.

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Russian GDP growth surpasses average global rates

By the end of 2024, the Russian economy has been growing faster than the average global rate. The country’s overall GDP growth is expected to reach 13% by 2027, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said. The country is likely to continue diversification efforts, with newly established industries playing an increasingly important role. However, this does not eliminate the Russian budget’s dependence on oil prices and the ruble’s peg to the US dollar, Nezavisimaya Gazeta reports.

The discussion about the need to diversify the Russian economy has persisted for quite some time. The results of these efforts are evident from the composition of the federal budget. According to the Finance Ministry, the share of oil and gas revenues in the federal budget stood at about 30% in 2023 compared to approximately 50% in 2013. The share was recorded at around 32% between January and November this year.

"The share of oil and gas revenues in the Russian budget has indeed significantly decreased in the past ten years, and judging by the Finance Ministry’s forecast, the trend will persist in the future," Olga Belenkaya, head of macroeconomic analysis at Finam, said. "Expectations of a gradual decline in the share of oil and gas revenues stem from the global energy transition and continued expansion of Russia’s non-oil and gas sector," she noted.

However, the share of the oil and gas industry will likely remain quite high in the future, even though it won’t be as high as it was several years ago, Vladimir Klimanov, director of the Center for Regional Policy, asserted.

In terms of strategy, the prospects for a stable decline in the share of oil and gas revenues are prompting many oil-producing countries to develop other sectors such as nuclear energy, agriculture, construction, high technologies, and tourism. Norway, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia are among the nations following this path, along with Russia.

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