The interview of famous American pundit George Friedman to a Polish newspaper, Polska The Times, spread all over the Russian part of the Internet. And statements that Russia will start to disintegrate after 2020 were reprinted and commented most actively.
The most precious thing in the interview is that Friedman shows the conceptual basis of political forecasting that foreign experts with such attitudes now rely upon. In fact, Friedman declares "Long live Leninism!"
Why do we say so? What theUS expert does, is reproducing provisions contained in a book by Vladimir Lenin's "Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism" that was published, as few now remember, in 1917, or - a century ago. Remarkably, Lenin, the great politician and the leader of international proletariat, 'rendered' into practice (which is political forecasting) the results of studies of such prominent chairborne economists as John Hobson and Rudolf Hilferding in terms of the influence that the nascent imperialism had on the transformation of the geopolitical situation. Everything revolved around monopolies, financial capital, export of capital, international cartels, and territorial division of the world which were the realities of the new incarnation of capitalism. But the core thing is the irregularity of development. Some countries are rising and others are getting older and (economically) weaker. Here is where the 'posh people' start getting rid of their 'old folks'. That is what Friedman is talking about.
For example, Germany started to outrun England – and the WW I broke out, the war that was fought for dividing the world and markets. Just what our American oracle is forecasting for the next few decades. We will not say a word about who and how helped Germany in 1930-s. But the pace at which Germany 'rebuilt itself' and started to 'press' the United Kingdom in the economic sphere is the most vivid example in the history of imperialism. Here we are, WW II, the war 'for economic interests'. Let’s keep in mind that Nazi leaders, keen on racial theories (which by the way were created by the British, and Benjamin Disraeli was also the one who wrote about them), having measured the skulls, acknowledged that Britons were closer to the ideal of the Nordic race than Germans. If a downed British pilot (let us note not an American – “Americans are spoilt with Semites”) was awarded a high British order, Hermann Göring (!) put on his dress uniform and went to a war prisoners camp to personally congratulate the hero on the award, which was usually followed by a lovely party. Few people know that in late 1930-s Germany had the highest living standards in the world. And that is why Germans liked their leader. You see ideology that connives at pride plus disciplined and wise, not savage American consumerism – that’s what it was all about!
History repeated itself for the third time, naturally, with some alternations. Now George Friedman speaks about the unacceptable rise of Germany for a half of his interview.
Friedman is explicitly involved into advocating WW III: “That’s how it has always been: the longer the peace, the higher are the chances of war”, “Let’s not forget that war is not a disease. It is something that runs deep in human nature. Difficult to say why, but that’s what there is”.
And so on and so forth, banalities again.
But as to geopolitical forecasting, the analyst bases his conclusions precisely on Lenin's patterns. China is getting weaker, and it is not capable to withstand long-term rivalry. It can already be poked.
«Nowadays all admire China, the world investor. But that’s the outward impression. The reality is that China, just as the rest of the Eurasia, is going through a crisis that affects both, the political and economic spheres”.
Come on, China, take the South China Sea under your control! You chicken out? OK, then, war against China is out of agenda.
Germany? What is Germany today? “Germany is fighting its own crises. Export income accounts for 50% of German GDP, which means that a likely depression hits the country hard. Who’s going to buy German products? If exports go down by 10%, the GDP will be reduced by 5%. As soon as recession hits the US, which is imminent, Americans shall stop buying German cars. It is clear that German economy is overheated, that Berlin deceives itself and the world, claiming their economic model is efficient….”
A fine kettle of fish.
And who, according Friedman, is on the rise, who, so to speak, is challenging others? This is Japan (which probably is free of American occupation?), Turkey, and of course the United States itself. Americans will now promote shale oil and knock down the United Arab Emirates. Moreover, if Trump presses back the stolen from Canada for a yogurt! U.S. citizens will all be happy, all children will get higher education and those who are ailing will get previously unseen elite medical services.
«Starting from Cold War times all eyes in Europe were turned to Russia. But Europeans are totally unable to comprehend the US. While the Soviet Union disintegrated, just like Russia is now, the Europeans have reiterated it is the US that is falling apart”.
Here again we are catching the American analyst red-handed. Why there is no reference to Lenin? We shall not set off on long exploration of modern political and economic ideas. There are interesting developments there! But (attention!) there is no capitalism there! It soured! Capitalist empires can rise and fall only if there is 'no one's' population that can pay. And there is no such population! The largest pie is Ukraine with its population of 45 million. But that is nothing. Billions are needed, with some money. And this is fraught with consequences! There will be no resources for everyone. Even today every day American cars burn all oxygen produced by Latin American silva. And I would breathe that oxygen myself. But I cannot despite it is common heritage.
No global forecast (even the latest forecast the Club of Rome made last year) mentions capitalism. However, there is no clear forecast of the future world economic order. It just says that people will move to megalopolises, which grow in number (as it is easier to 'tame' people to new goods and services, which implies just scamming out of money), and that social injustice will grow. No alternative to violence can so far be seen. That is why the war that is "inherent to human nature" may take a form of civil wars rather than armed conflicts between states. And this is horrifying! We need to consider how to protect social order. We, for example, thought about here, in Russia, but we did not get far. And now we have become so weak that we are on the brink of disintegration.
I would like to reassure my readers. States do not disintegrate either through 'CIA scheming' or 'marches of empty pots'. Well, and 145 million Russians are a tiny little thing for global consumerism. A state disintegrates if it grows weak. If we wish to prolong our existence as a nation, we need to make the state stronger and think about its real security. And then we’ll get whatever we wish…