Putin-Merkel meeting: Stakes and Hopes / News / News agency Inforos
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Putin-Merkel meeting: Stakes and Hopes

It’s good they talk - but how good are the talks, really?

24.08.2018 14:35 Christoph Hörstel, German Publicist & Government Consultant

Putin-Merkel meeting: Stakes and Hopes

Part I

The Merkel-Lavrov-Gerassimov Meeting

German chancellor Merkel meets with two Russians: foreign affairs minister Lavrov and army head Gerassimov - in Berlin, July 24, 2018. But then, observers ask themselves about the astonishing feat, that Gerassimov is allowed into the EU though he is barred from entering by sanctions dating back to 2014, after Moscow succeeded in saving Crimea from the multi-criminal chaos ruling Kiev-dominated parts of Ukraine.

Dry facts are, that Berlin had to ask the EU's consent prior to the meeting, received it without delay – and the Russian duo went to Israel first, from there to Berlin and subsequently continued for talks with French president Macron in Paris. Itinerary and time raise questions about the topics of the exchanges - but German government and big media give just sketchy pictures. According to them, it was Putin who had asked for the meeting of the two with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, then suggested the subsequent exchanges to the two Europeans. Anyone assuming from this that Russia might be in an inferior position here, is grossly mistaken. It is simply by friendly care for good understanding and stabilization of peace that Moscow as the truly dominant player in the Middle East tries not to move or even only appear as domineering, when it comes to reinstate legitimate government control over all areas of the devastated and suffering Syrian nation.

1. The Syria Connection

The Israel connection stands for Syrian cum Iranian plus, in fact, even Turkish affairs - and details are interesting: Russia had offered to help keep Iranian troops at a distance from Israel's border guards; Israel's territory is a difficult question, not only in this context - the matter was intentionally overlooked by EU media... Tel Aviv feared an occupation of the disputed Golan heights by Iranian forces, or, even worse, by Hezbollah. They asked for at least 100 kilometers distance, in fact pushed a complete withdrawal from Syria - and received 85 kilometers in the end. This buffer zone is a good idea for anybody hoping for a reduction of tensions and risks in the region - and Moscow succeeded in establishing itself as the manager to fulfill these aspirations. A remarkable feat given the fact, that uninvited US forces in and around Syria put endless strains on Washington's diplomats not to lose face completely in this sad matter. Moreover, Israel asked for complete withdrawal of all Iranian military personnel from Syria;  this was not granted until now and appears questionable, since Iran has supported Syria even before the western-guided proxy aggression began - and strengthened its support ever after, upon invitation of the legitimate Syrian government, which cannot be said of the 2000 or so US troops in Syria, who simply invaded under the usual pack of lies, illegally, violating all kinds of laws including US standards - and the UN Charter. Moreover, Israel demanded withdrawal of Iranian missile and air control installations, understandably: They endanger Israel's deliberate and occasional air force visits into its neighbor's garden.

 

2. US Media and Ukraine

Whereas the New York Times didn't bother much to report the Merkel meeting with Lavrov and Gerassimov, big EU media filed few and mostly not very detailed  reports; as is the case today: for insiders, the majority doesn't bother too much. The situation in Ukraine played a role, too, in the Merkel meeting. Russia is no longer ready to accept any of Kiev's ill-advised offensives in the area - let alone one with disturbing side effects on international events hosted by Russia, like the soccer world cup. In much the same manner, Russia is ready as always to fulfill the Minsk agreement - but will not run the risk of sacrificing Russian people in Donbass to US-led murderous tricks. Germany is no distant player here as in the case of Syria, Berlin had assumed a leading role in the second western-organized coup in Ukraine within ten years and plays a major role alongside France in the management of the aftermath. Obviously, there are no quick fixes to be had here. Germany under Merkel steadfastly refuses to use the breathing space opened by Trump's overtures to Russia, that would serve German and European interests very well - but: no way with Merkel.

3. EU Sanctions and Gerassimov's Entry Into The EU 

What may astonish the observer is the question, how Russia's army chief can enter Germany, talk to Merkel in the presence of the newly appointed foreign affairs minister Maas (SPD) - but absent is anybody representing Germany's military side: defense minister v.d.Leyen or Gerassimov's German colleague, Zorn. Well, Zorn is too little of a politician to be of any help, Germany commands just too little gun power, lacking presence in the ME - and v.d.Leyen is not only a CDU member like Merkel herself, so the ruling coalition would not have been represented, but also known to try to inherit Merkel's chancellorship by employing her own links to Washington - no matter what. If in such a case the coalition has to be represented, fundamental topics are being touched. One is certainly the presence of fully armed NATO troops on Russia's border, with a recent but post-Berlin (August 7) incident of a Spanish jet fighter erroneously firing a missile only few kilometers from the Russian border. If Russia were ruled by powerhungry aggressive maniacs, as western media want to make believe their gullible consumers, such an incident could trigger WW3.

4. Turkey, S 400 and NATO's Quagmire

Another question are military implications of Russia delivering the ordered S 400 air defense system to Turkey, a deal changing the chemistry in the whole NATO alliance.Russia had offered to speed up delivery of the the air defense system, to start in 2019, which leaves the US with an area it cannot easily attack; S 400 effects a mobile no-fly-zone of considerable size: up to 400 kilometers. A refusal in Trump's defense policy bill of mid-August to deliver even a single F-35 Lockheed fighter to the disobedient Turkish ally, was later watered down to a study by the Defense Secretary in this delicate matter: With the denial of F-35 delivery, Turkey may well turn to Russia again for new offers, such as the SU 57.

5. Iran Case As Potential WW3 Trigger

Another security-related topic is certainly the nuclear contract JCPoA with Iran. The US, which has never quite fulfilled its commitments towards Iran, has stopped its participation and thus breaks the agreement, and has put in effect immediately tough new sanctions against the only party to the deal, which has over-performed all the time in fulfilling the deal's terms: Iran - and this a mere week after Merkel's LavrovGerassimov meeting. Since the Iranian revolution in 1979, Washington has all the time issued aggressive threats against Iran - not only even much tougher sanctions in November this year, mainly to stop Iran's connections to the global financial system. It is of vital interest both to Russia and to Europe, that Washington's planned and scenariobased aggression against Iran may not become red hot dangerous reality. European partners have vowed to uphold JCPoA, put in effect an anti-blocking law created in 1996 against US domineering - but does not stick to it and watches helplessly, as big EU companies protecting their important US business withdraw from Iran. Their engagements are being replaced by smaller companies, wherever possible - but in fact, by Washington's unwise policies, the US is helping non-EU companies entering the Iranian market and disturbing cooperation and alliance with the EU.

6. Germany's Self-Inflicted Abnormal Immigration Crisis 

The return of 1.5-2 million Syrian refugees in Germany to their motherland is a delicate matter. Merkel so far obviously does not plan speedy developments supporting Syrian development and well-being; in fact, German authorities deliberately delay the return. Occasionally, reports hint, that Berlin intentionally puts the Assad government under political pressure to strengthen its foes in Syria, using refugees as a blackmail pawn. Immigrants are accepted without passports, German citizenship is being granted intentionally to drug dealers and other criminals, a refugee girl from Iraq meets her ISIS rapist by chance in Germany - and is being followed and threatened by him, then returns to Iraq. Longstanding immigrants, mostly from Turkish immigrants, complain about the huge impact on crime rates in germany. Russian NTV just recorded the story of a Turkish coffee-shop owner in downtown Berlin, who notices a doubling of drug crimes disturbing his clients - while German police jaust looks on in complete inactivity. This all in a political landslide situation, where an obvious majority of Germans supports the speedy return of refugees, no matter Merkel's wishes and utterings. Growing numbers of leading politicians in all political parties try more or less to accommodate this viewpoint in their respective flocks in order to prevent losses in elections and memberships. Observers who assume, Merkel must have an interest to push the Syrians and others home a.s.a.p., are nearly correct: she should. But fact is, she continues in this case, as in other fields of policy, which earn the stamp "high treason" - and it is perfectly Merkel's style to spin the news to appear as trying to get the immigrants home, while in fact she keeps them in the country and prepares for civil war. In the background of this all, looms a bigger internal crisis in Germany, with the German army in fact exercising "CoIn", counter insurgency, measures against the German population, while at the same time civil war is being fostered. Germans arm themselves in ever greater numbers, as they realize, that millions of immigrants served as cover-up for up to one hundred or so thousand trained fighters and terrorists hiding among them - according to police sources. Numerous mayors and their local administrations prepare bunkers, hideouts and store supplies for months to come, interacting with army, special reserve and police forces, their whistle blowers participating in meetings with honest publicists. Neighbors like Russia, who do not have the slightest interest in a destabilized and insecure Germany in Central Europe, are trying their level best to maintain good working official ties while at the same time sounding the alarm bells to wake up sleeping majorities - definitely not an easy task and often a ride on a razor's edge.

Part II

The Putin-Merkel Meeting

Before proceeding to Germany, Russian president Putin had a heart-warming appearance as invited guest to the marriage ceremony of Austria's foreign minister Kneissl, during her tenure of EU Council Presidency. Not only did he hold a friendly and personal address speech in good German, but also danced with the bride and accepted her astonishing devotional curtsy in the end without allure. Chancellor Kurz accompanied Putin to the Graz airport - and the difference between warmth and beauty of pictures in Austria and what was to follow in Germany cannot be described but as in "sharp contrast". If there wasn't something deeply wrong in the state of Germany, Germany would have been as welcoming. But here, both leaders were grim-faced. In their recent Sochi meeting, Putin had graciously handed Merkel a marvelous flower bouquet, a gesture, which was immediately discredited by the German tabloid "Bild" - from the media company with the best BND connection, Springer - as intentionally patronizing: this time in Meseberg there was no charming move. Truth is, Merkel and Putin, both, were not allowed to smile: Had the Russian president smiled, he would have been blasted and vilified by western propaganda to appear as smiling victor, oppressor unscrupulous evil-doer in US elections etc.; had Merkel smiled, it would have been used against Trump and made her look weak and dependent - by the very same dumb media. The two met alone for a few minutes, then changed to another room, where the aides waited - and continued.

1. Ukraine and Syria

If in the Lavrov-Gerassimov meeting Ukraine and Syria played major roles, there was little progress compared to before. A UN mission for Ukraine may be in the making, nothing is clear and fixed as yet - but there is potential. In Syria, Idlib province, the last major battle is intensifying slowly - Washington stands to lose one of its dirtiest games, which has resulted in the biggest wave of refugees since WW2. Western cartel media stand ready to go into one of their typical distortion battles, without any sign of shame or scruples - Russia and its president being the main targets, while Iran will have a first class explanation, why Europe cannot stand by JCPoA and EU solidarity and continuity declarations, due to Tehran's unyielding support to Syria and its legitimate government. Our media barrage will focus on a "human catastrophe" - while consumers will be left in the dark as always, as to who started this bloodshed and destruction, where, when, why and how. US support to IS, which had on single occasions, already found its way into our big media, read: "Der Spiegel" founder's daughter Franziska Augstein in "Süddeutsche Zeitung", but even that little will be forgotten. Russia promotes financial support for Syria's reconstruction, German government coalition partner SPD lamely tried to support the necessary, decent and fair idea - but to no avail.

2. Nord Stream 2

The day before the Meseberg meeting, an important gas pipeline project connecting EU partners west and south of Nord Stream's German end ("EUGAL") was okayed by the Brandenburg State authorities. And two days after the meeting, Trump pondered his usual sanctions and tariff arsenal to punish Europe's most important NATO partner for not delaying the project, let alone stopping it altogether. Even if Merkel wanted to stop it, she can't do it: The German business sector, already fed up with sanction-caused losses, would not hear of it - and the donations and support are badly needed. US liquified gas is no competition for Russian gas - but the EU has opened the doors a bit wider than before.

3. Turkey and Iran

It is quite possible, that Merkel might participate in a top-class meeting, maybe with presidents Putin, Macron, Erdogan and Ruhani in Ankara, September 7. As to the trouble between Trump and Erdogan, the latter told the public in the case of F-35 fighter jet delivery, the problems could be overcome. But that's just the smaller part of his agenda: He has likewise declared his country, its people and himself as ready for everything, including war - and definitely looks for new friends and allies. He has used the time as a leader wisely: In a hotly debated TV series, the Turkish people were educated over the years about the downsides and dangers of the western financial system up to lofty secret societies including the so-called Illuminati and their perverted habits. A German translation might do us much good. That Erdogan meets Iranian leaders and maintains close ties to Washington's arch foe, that he has openly and strongly refused to follow the latest turn of US sanctions, speaks a clear language, too. Interestingly, there's no mention of a British participation in the Ankara meeting - which is a clear sign not only of the sorry state of NATO, but as well of "Brexit" marking the end of European foreign policy as we know it since WW2. Had we witnessed a ParisBerlin-Moscow-Beijing axis against the Iraq invasion in 2003 to the shock of Washington, this move now could bring about a historic change. Understood, Macron is definitely not Chirac, Merkel no Kohl. Global peace is being multiply challenged worldwide. The two EU leaders may try to slow Erdogan down - but Russia and others do have a few trumps up their sleeves. The Iran case is very dangerous. Iran may be in the focus of the beginning of a new world war. While Europe hesitates, stumbles and fails to see its own advantages, Russia is free to improve ties and trade relations. Iran's strength lies in patience, small steps and wise choices; Tehran has strong points there, while Merkel has no apparent plan.

Part III

Results 

We won't be able to understand and analyze the recent talks and moves, if we do not consider:

• - America has lost decisively large chunks of its military superiority - and most of its prowess, decadence settles in • - EU breaks apart helplessly • - financial crash looms and can happen any day, any minute

The consequences are harsh and being hushed-up in western top circles - as if an unhappy event or development might go away by overlooking and not talking about it:  The next world war will very likely harm US territory. In a serious confrontation between Russia and the US, there will be few survivors and zero winner. No matter what inept western leaders my fathom: history will go this way:

• - the post WW2-order is being re-fixed under new auspices

• - in contradiction to so-called "NWO" conspiracy philosophies, well-led nations with powerful economies, structures and resources will be the future leaders, not corporate empires

• - time is playing for Eurasia and against US global domination

The top remaining question is: Will the transit period remain largely peaceful?

This all finds Europe without a strategy or even a little pocket concept for the times to come, except their leaders' real estate in South American exile. It's definitely good they talk. But the talks are terribly bad, a waste of time by not touching the necessary points: Full European cooperation including Russia is a must, without alternative, as Merkel used to say: "alternativlos". Wake up, Germany, western and central Europe, the alarm clock rang an hour ago.

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