President Erdogan confirmed at the G20 meeting recently in Japan that the Russian S-400 system will be delivered soon. Turkey started moving towards Russia after the coup attempt in 2016. The Russian government knew of the coup plans and warned the Turkish government about unusual military activity. President Erdogan’s first trip abroad since the failed coup attempt was to Russia, and he thanked President Putin for his support. After the failed coup attempt, Turkey made a seismic shift toward Russia, and decided to buy the Russian S-400 defense system, and abandoned the proposed American Patriot system.
In the US war on Iraq in 2003, the air defense system that Saddam Hussein had was made in the U.S. The Iraqi defense system was crippled because the Pentagon used their intimate knowledge of the system to scramble the communications, using re-positioned satellites. This reduced the air defenses to a pile of metal. The neighboring countries of Iraq, like Turkey, learned a lesson: you cannot trust the U.S. defense system in a time of the attack.
Russia has demonstrated that they are a global superpower. In 2011 Russia and China used their UN veto against the U.S. and its allies concerning Syria. That veto was the beginning for Russia to take center stage in global political issues.
Many countries are now standing in the face of the U.S. and refusing to blindly follow the U.S. into military interventions in Syria, and more recently Iran. The European Union has been demanding real proof before acting militarily on claims of attacks on ships in the Gulf, which could be a staged provocation.
Germany stands apart in strong opposition to blindly following the U.S. lead. There is a distinct possibility of an alliance between Germany, Russia, Turkey, and China: forming an ‘Eastern Bloc’ as a counterbalance to the U.S. and western allies. There are millions of Turks living in Germany, and Germany buys its natural gas from Russia. The current ‘Cold War’ with the U.S. and allies on one side, and the BRICS offering an alternative reminds us of the ‘Cold War’ days of JFK and Khrushchev.
There is a perception that the U.S. lacks loyalty to its allies, such as in the case of the coup attempt in Turkey. It would appear that the U.S. does not honor alliances, or treaties, as in the case of the Iran nuclear deal. President Trump has publically humiliated Saudi Arabia by his statements that they are only in power at the discretion of the U.S., and they are nothing more than a cow to be milked.
The US Pentagon notified Turkey that it has canceled the purchase of 100 F-35 jets, even though they are paid for, and Turkish companies manufacture many of the key parts. All Turkish pilots and personnel training on the F-35 are expected to leave the U.S. by July 31. This is in retaliation for the purchase of the S-400. The Turkish currency has been devalued by 10% this year due to poor diplomatic ties with the U.S. and their threats of sanctions if Turkey receives the S-400.
If the Turkish position remains in defiance of the U.S. there is the possibility of the U.S pulling out the “Kurdish card” against them, both domestically in Turkey, as well as on the border inside Syria. Once the S-400 is in place inside Turkey, there is a possibility that the U.S. will retaliate by inciting the Kurds in Turkey, and their brothers in arms in Syria. Turkey has suffered thousands of deaths and injuries by Kurdish terrorists, who routinely attacked civilians and tourists over the decades. When the Pentagon began using the Kurds inside Syria as a militia and promised them a homeland at Syrian and Turkish expense, this was perceived as a betrayal to Turkey.
The U.S. has ground troops in the region, which they use as a military asset, and those are the foreign terrorists. The terrorists have been taking orders for years from the CIA, during the Obama administration, prior to President Trump pulling the plug on the covert operation.
Turkey may face a bloody summer, unless President Erdogan can come up with a deal to appease the White House, and the U.S. Congress, who were also against sending the F35’s to Turkey, and the purchase of the S-400. The ‘Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act’, is a 2017 law passed by the U.S. Congress which mandates sanctions on any country purchasing military equipment from Russia. Trump told Erdogan that there would be no sanctions on the S-400 delivery; however, that will have to be agreed to by Congress. Erdogan may need to offer the U.S. something of value in exchange for his major shift towards Russia.