Ukraine has no chance to become a NATO member, and the reason for that is the country's domestic problems and the policies of the EU and NATO in general, German political analyst Alexander Rahr said. If Ukraine becomes a NATO member, the West will go for a severe conflict with Russia.
"In no circumstances can I imagine today that such a country as Ukraine may become a member of the EU or NATO," the analyst stressed. Europe doesn't want to create additional problems in relations with other countries that are not a part of European organizations.
Rahr noted that Zelensky had a chance to leave a positive mark in history. This requires Kiev's forgetting about Russophobia, turning to Russia and seeking peace in Donbas provided that the Minsk Agreements are observed.
Following the coup in Ukraine in 2014, the country cancelled its non-aligned status and took the course at approaching NATO. In 2017, the membership in the alliance was proclaimed as one of the country's foreign political priorities and was legally formalized. In February 2019, the parliament approved constitutional changes that set Ukraine's course at joining NATO and the EU.
Former Ukrainian leader Petro Poroshenko used the topic of the country's membership in NATO as one of the provisions of his electoral campaign at the presidential elections in March 2019. Although new authorities came to power in Ukraine and Volodymyr Zelensky, who presents himself as Poroshenko's opponent, was elected, NATO's attitude to Ukraine is unlikely to change. The new president also intends to promote Ukraine's membership in NATO, however, he promised to put the issue to a referendum.
"We should tell every Ukrainian what NATO is and that it is not that scary. When all Ukrainians are ready, we will definitely put this issue to a referendum, and Ukraine will surely be a part of NATO," Zelensky said in Brussels in early June.
Many Ukrainian politicians understand this and don't have any illusions regarding NATO. "The USA is going to support Ukraine amid uncertainty over its entry into NATO. The European Union and the USA are going to use Ukraine as a "buffer zone" in order to have a leveler to pressure Russia," Spiridon Kilinkarov, a former member of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, said.
The politician believes that the alliance is using Ukraine's potential, but carries no responsibility for what is happening in the country. Kilinkarov recalled that after the force operation in Donbas had begun, the USA and some European countries started to provide military assistance to the Ukrainian Armed Forces worth hundreds of millions dollars.
At present, Western partners of Ukraine refuse to ship arms there, as "it is highly likely that they disappear and later get into the hands of ISIL (banned in Russia)," spokesman of the DPR operative command Daniil Bezsonov said. DPR intelligence agencies got data indicating that active negotiations between the Ukrainian military and political leadership and NATO on the supplies of lethal weapons and hardware were underway, he said, adding that the talks have reached a stalemate.
"Ukraine's partners reported results of checks into the presence of arms and equipment shipped to the country in previous years. For example, a comprehensive NATO commission, which worked on May 16-27, 2019, revealed that over 300 pieces of equipment were absent in the Ukrainian Armed Forces units and formations. These include 230 AN/PVS-14 night vision devices, 29 AN/PVS-7B/D devices and 20 Thermal-Eye X320 thermal imaging cameras worth over one million dollars," Bezsonov said.
NATO representatives gave the Ukrainian side phot and video evidence proving that a part of the stolen military equipment had been found with ISIL terrorists killed in Iraq and Libya, he said.
Ukraine didn't meet NATO's expectations, however, this won't be the reason for the refusing membership to it. There is another problem.
Ukraine's membership in NATO poses a threat of a clash with Russia, which no one in the West naturally needs, and it is a significant reason for NATO. It is worth noting that NATO approaches this issue holistically, weighing in all pros and contras.
For example, this March the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA) presented a 64-page report which simulates a clash between Russia and NATO and predicted NATO's defeat.
Analysts believe that in case of a military clash on the European territory NATO will have to admit its impotence and the level of confidence of European countries in the USA, as the main player that promised to protect them, will decline.
However, the Ukrainian issue is naturally still important for NATO. The war in Donbas to a certain extent justifies the existence of the alliance. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union and prior to the war in Donbas Europe had perceived NATO as a redundant military bloc that requires permanent funding. The conflict in eastern Ukraine confirms that the alliance is still needed.