The Karabakh developments show that the warring parties will fight back-and-forth till the "penultimate shell" in the hope of direct intervention by a "third force". Although Turkey is already standing with Azerbaijan.
Leaders of OSCE's Minsk group to settle the Karabakh conflict co-chaired by Russia, France and the United States has spoken in favor of an immediate end to the armed conflict and an ultimate renewal of the negotiation process. The UN Security Council launched the same appeal to Baku and Yerevan. Along with that, the opponents still accuse each other of fomenting the conflict and make bellicose statements.
The nine days of war seem to haven't been enough for the parties to bring the enemy to the brink of a smashing defeat or exhaust its capabilities. Military communiqués on the results of combat operations and losses are frankly doubtful. Going by the data released, the armed forces of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR) and Azerbaijan inflicted damage on each other that is incomparable to their ability to go on with dynamic action. The only plausible thing is that Armenia and Azerbaijan are constantly moving new reserve groups to the front line.
In fact, the war is between Azerbaijan and Armenia directly in Nagorno-Karabakh and the adjacent territory captured by the NKR troops in the course of previous clashes. President Ilham Aliyev and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan fortunately still have the nerve to refrain from expanding armed hostilities and spreading them to the lands of Armenia and Azerbaijan. In such a case, the conflict will be a far cry with unpredictable consequences.
Whatever the case, no one is interested in the unpredictable scenario. Casual observers have no doubt that Baku, which initiated the current conflict escalation, is unable to reach its object of desires and win back the captured area. And Yerevan won't allow the loss of its gains. Although, again, both capitals are not opposed to at least an indirect intervention by third countries.
In this remarkably challenging situation, Russia intends to remain firmly neutral and intervene only when the warring parties exhaust their military capabilities and determine to suspend hostilities and resume negotiations on a ceasefire and a comprehensive territorial dispute settlement. Moscow is defiantly unsupportive of any party and certainly does not provide anyone with military or other kind of assistance.
As for other members of OSCE's Minsk group, they take a similar position and will do everything to prevent the armed conflict expansion in a consolidated manner.
In the meantime, the position of observers centers around the following definition: "play war, burn off steam and stop shooting»...
Who benefits from this war is another talking point to be brought into view later.