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Gulf war delayed

Donald Trump has a week left to open Pandora's Box

Gulf war delayed

The Israeli leadership has reacted rather badly to Iran's statement about its intention to resume production of enriched uranium (up to 20%) starting 2021, which can be used to create a nuclear bomb. Tel Aviv issued threatening statements to Tehran, once again warning the "Ayatollah regime" about the possibility of striking Iranian nuclear facilities. According to Israeli experts, the Iranians are well positioned to produce up to eight tons of enriched uranium within a year.

Washington, as represented by the US military, has also issued a series of threatening statements, all the more so as the Pentagon has recently assembled a sizeable alignment of naval and air forces in the Persian Gulf zone. Brother Jonathan has implemented certain measures to strengthen its supply bases and military facilities in Iraq, Kuwait, the Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Oman. But these measures are of a purely preventive nature, aiming to protect personnel and military equipment in the face of expected Iranian attacks on the occasion of the anniversary of the January 2020 massacre of influential Iranian military leaders in Iraq.

However, Israel has perceived the events in a different way: hostile propaganda against Iran has significantly increased in the country, part of the armed forces has been brought into a higher state of readiness, and measures are being taken to fulfill a number of mobilization tasks. Combat and reconnaissance aircraft of the Israeli Air Force monitors Iran's military facilities in Syria, as well as the performance of pro-Iranian formations in the Syrian territory and southern Lebanon almost twenty-four seven.

Some Israeli political observers with the Yedioth Ahronothand Haaretz newspapers do not rule out a limited-scale and time-constrained missile and air strike against Iranian military and industrial facilities by the United States and Israel until January 20, 2021, that is before new American President Joe Biden takes office. At that, the order will be issued by Donald Trump, but all the responsibility for the mission's consequences will come upon the new White House head.

Joe Biden is known to have been dead set against terminating the 2015 treaty, which paved the way for Iranian nuclear program's openness and IAEA's full access to its nuclear industrial and scientific facilities. Another well-known thing is that the president-elect intends to sign a new agreement with Tehran, stipulating lifted economic and political sanctions imposed under Trump, which will significantly reduce military tension in the Middle East.

Bearing witness to this is Biden's decision to yield the leading administrative posts to people who should support his foreign policy, including CIA head William Burns, who used to criticize Trump's actions against Iran.

Speaking before the Foreign Policy and Security Committee of the Israeli Parliament, America's current Ambassador to Tel Aviv David Friedman urged the Israeli government to establish relations with Joe Biden's administration as soon as possible in the context of strategic cooperation with Iran and the beginning of a productive dialogue with the United States. At the same time, he expressed hope that Biden would sustain Donald Trump's political agenda, which culminated in Israel's signing agreements on establishing relations with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan.

According to influential Western and Middle Eastern analysts, however much the Israeli leadership wanted to use force against Iran, the US ruling circles are unlikely to allow an unleashed military conflict in the Persian Gulf. The current preparations are most likely demonstrative so as to "preserve a cheer in a sour game".

In this "game", Israel has little choice but to maintain its strategic course towards Iran, particularly in Syria and Lebanon. Which Tel Aviv brilliantly does.

Thus, the Syrian Sana news agency reports that the night of January 13 has seen Israel launch a series of missile strikes targeting Iranian military facilities in the east of the Deir ez-Zor Governorate. According to head of the London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights Rami Abdulrahman, the strongest explosions have been recorded at an ammunition depot and a military camp of the Palestinian As-Sa'iqa brigade next to the governorate's administrative center, and about 20 powerful explosions in the settlements of Al-Bukamal and Mayadin. Iranian IRGC units, as well as Shiite militias loyal to them, are stationed in these towns. No casualties or damage have been reported.

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