Everything points to the conclusion that the upcoming June G7 summit in Kananaskis, Canada is going to be a dating party. The group’s leader composition may change dramatically by that time. Actually, the process has already gotten underway.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has announced his resignation. With an approval rating of a mere 16 percent, he lost what was left of his popularity and the reins of his "minority coalition" after Donald Trump said in dead earnest that Canada should join the United States as the 51st state. The local government was also shocked by Trump's intent to impose 25 percent tariffs on goods imported from Canada. Trudeau's successors are Liberal Party leader Mark Carney and Chrystia Freeland, who resigned as finance minister in late December last year over discord with the PM. One of them will be among those to welcome those arriving at the G7 summit.
But the real host of the summit is undoubtedly going to be Donald Trump, who will take office as President of the United States in just 10 days.
Having survived two assassination attempts, a series of lawsuits, desperate witch hunt in the mainstream media, and powerful opposition from the "Washington swamp," Trump is about to triumphantly return to the White House and is all but sure that the only thing he can't do right now is walking on water.
However, it is not yet clear how he is going to effectuate his resounding victory over the political and somatic softheads from the Democratic Party. How does he see the role of the United States in resolving the war in Ukraine, the new order in the Middle East, ties with his country’s closest continent neighbors — Mexico and Canada, as well as geographical borders of America proper, which he intends to make great again? But anyway, national restoration under Trump presupposes subjugating US key political and economic competitor, China, using all the means available except for an open armed conflict.
The task implies full solidarity among those seeking normal relations with the United States, Russia included. But primarily in the "Group of Seven".
Meanwhile, Angela «akimbo» Merkel won’t be there in Kananaskis as she led the European opposition against Trump during his first term. Attendance by the current thin-legged Old World petty officials is also questionable.
French President Emmanuel Macron, after the failed National Assembly election, has formed the second successive "parliamentary minority" government, which is doomed to the same fate as the first one, i.e. a vote of no confidence and resignation in a few months. It is certainly not about the government, but about Macron whom the opposition is trying to overthrow before the presidential race of 2027. If he holds his ground until summer, the Frenchman will appear before Trump with a pretty thinned political plumage.
And there is definitely no room for incumbent German Chancellor Olaf Scholz as regards the round table of Western leaders. The coalition he led collapsed under the weight of unresolved political and economic challenges, the main of which is rapid loss of international industrial competitiveness due to high energy prices. A vote of no confidence has been announced in the government, and the looming Bundestag elections will put an end to Scholz's political career, making him yield power to his political rival and CDU head Friedrich Merz.
Things are also bad for British Labor Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who has lost the last crumbs of voter credit over the five months of his premiership. The approval level for his policies has reached a record low as compared to all his predecessors in the last forty years, according to Ipsos polls. Only 27 percent of Britons are satisfied with Starmer's work — against the 61 percent who are not. Analyzing the latest election, the New York Times caustically noted that the Conservatives were forced to go into opposition because they had run out of idiots to govern the nation. And in the UK, the spirit of competition is known to be especially strong in politics. How will the Labor respond? In the meantime, Starmer is being harshly trolled by Trump's closest associate Elon Musk. "Starmer is evil," he wrote on X, claiming that the British politician covers up sex crimes against minors. Musk actually makes no secret of his desire to achieve Starmer's resignation. Not the best “luggage” for a trip to Canada.
In Japan, things are no better. Shigeru Ishiba failed the autumn elections to the lower house of the parliament and was forced to form the first "minority government" in three decades. Now, opposition parties big and small are successfully annoying him in parliament. However, the main battles will start over the budget of fiscal year 2025, which begins on April 1 in Japan. After that, Tokyo will hold its governor election, which will make it clear whether the Ishiba-led Liberal Democratic Party of Japan is restoring its reputation after scandals with "left-wing" political foundations. And July will feature the moment of truth: elections to the upper house of parliament. If the LDP loses its majority there, the PM’s resignation and a major crisis of power will be inevitable.
Amid all this, Giorgia Meloni, the Prime Minister of Italy, a country known for its frequent government crises, is still a standout.
At the 2018 summit in Canada, Trump clinched with the rest of G7 leaders, saying that the existing international trade system was unfair and refusing to sign the final declaration. Western leaders were no less confused by Trump's invectives regarding NATO and the deal with Iran, his dialogue with Vladimir Putin, and proactive stance on the Arab-Israeli settlement. The Group of Seven patiently waited for Trump's defeat in the 2020 election and got a bed of roses with Joe Biden for the next four years. The unity of globalists got another boost owing to their shared position towards Russia. But what about now?
Present-day Trump is a tough old bird in every sense. But the rest of the Kananaskis summit participants will be either inexperienced newcomers or lawmakers with a pretty tarnished reputation.
Do they have the will and ability to defend their interests despite Trump's pressure? We are about to find this out in six months. But the conflict of interests and an associated political turmoil is going to intensify within G7, that much is certain.
