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/ World / Security / Afghan Syndrome /

Gas for Taliban dictators

Success prospects for the TAPI gas pipeline project have increased

25.08.2021 15:20 Alexander Pasechnik, head of the Analytical Department at the National Energy Security Fund

Context:

Regime change in Afghanistan is a weighty reason to discourse upon a conceptual transformation of the country's energy policy. And though the radical Taliban movement (banned in the Russian Federation) has promptly established control over the country following the US military withdrawal, bragging that its geopolitical status has taken a quantum leap is an over-hasty decision. However, the long-term large-scale confrontation of the presidential forces with the Taliban militants is over, by and large. This makes it possible to assess the country's transit potential development through the spectacle of a "careful perspective".

The focus of attention here is a long-planned infrastructure project for gas transportation, the Turkmenistan – Afghanistan – Pakistan – India (TAPI) pipeline. Spokesman for the Taliban's Qatari political office Muhammad Suhail Shaheen announced his interest in implementing it in his August 17 interview with Sky News. He pointed to the need of setting off on the road to developing business and natural resources in the country, as well as attracting investors to create jobs and achieve economic success. That is, having seized power, the Taliban see many things in a different way now – with regard to business, not a sabotage war.

Moreover, not only the countries whose territories the pipe will be laid through are taking a fresh look at the TAPI project. It potentially affects the interests of global LNG suppliers, particularly Russia, Qatar, Australia, Malaysia and others.

The fact is that the Pakistan Stream project (on March 22, it was announced that the pipeline will be built by the special-purpose SPV company, with the Russian side's share to account for at least 26% and the project's estimated cost reaching $2.5 billion) was planned to be loaded at the expense of LNG shipments arriving at the ports of Karachi and Gwadar in southern Pakistan to be later pumped to the country's north, mainly for power plants and industrial enterprises in the Kasur district (Punjab province). Now, a hypothetical scenario is being revived with a possibility of the Pakistan Stream to accept Turkmen pipe gas from TAPI, which makes the reverse flow preferable. As a result, the stake of LNG producers on an additional sales niche in Pakistan may fail. And once the Pakistan Stream gets mainstreamed into TAPI, Russia will get a chance to capitalize on the Pakistani transit.

By the way, late spring saw director general of Gazprom Export Elena Burmistrova announce that the giant's pipe gas should not be awaited in India. During a May 20 press conference, she said Gazprom had stopped considering pipeline installation to India, with its route being exceedingly capital-intensive. At the same time, Burmistrova clarified that the company was already supplying LNG to that country.

On July 16, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov announced the interest of Russian companies to engage in building TAPI at the Central and South Asia: Regional Connectivity Conference - Exploring the challenges and opportunities. In his speech, he noted that "Russian economic operators are making a weighty contribution to the strengthening of the energy sector in Central Asian states."

However, China may expectedly manifest itself as an opponent of TAPI. Because Turkmen gas is now mainly supplied to China via the three-line cross-border gas transmission pipeline (Turkmenistan – Uzbekistan – Kazakhstan – China), and here the parties place their strategic stakes on expanding pipeline capacities: the system's fourth "D" branch has long been underway. But Turkmenistan won't simply have an opportunity to simultaneously increase gas production to load both the TAPI and the planned new string of the Turkmenistan – Uzbekistan –Kazakhstan – China system the same quickly. China watches out for the scenario of "diverting" gas volumes to the TAPI. At the same time, gas export diversification strategy has been the essence of Turkmenistan's energy diplomacy virtually since the first day of the republic's independence declaration. The leadership of that Central Asian country does see the importance of expanding the range of gas export directions, while realizing all the perils of excessive integration with the PRC in the energy sector, which may ultimately lead to the loss of state control over national hydrocarbon assets.

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