The diplomatic marathon, which started on January 10 in Geneva with Russian-American consultations, is designed to determine the overall security environment in Europe. Russia demands legal guarantees of NATO's non-expansion eastwards, but the United States is ready to discuss arms control alone. There is no progress on the key expansion issue, head of the Russian Geneva talks delegation Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said at a briefing after these consultations. "It shows that the American side underestimates the seriousness of what is going on," the diplomat explained.
As Moscow repeatedly stressed, Russia needs written security guarantees. In this regard, let's recall that in December, the Russian Foreign Ministry released draft agreements on security guarantees and then sent them to Washington and Brussels. Those include: NATO's eastwards expansion waiver; restrictions on the deployment of strike weapons next to Russian borders, including in Ukraine; terminated military cooperation with post-Soviet countries; non-establishment of bases in their territory; and refusal of exporting American nuclear weapons from Europe. The fundamental issue is NATO's non-expansion.
At the same time, Russia insisted that these documents be considered as soon as possible. The formal reason was the aggravation in Ukraine. Moscow assured of having no plans to attack, as the Western media persistently insist, but threatened with alternative forceful moves for safety sake. By the way, President Vladimir Putin was first to speak about legal security guarantees for Russia – it was at the Foreign Ministry Board in mid-November last year.
The Russian leader continued dwelling upon written security guarantees during his annual press conference for Russian and foreign journalists on December 23, 2021. Answering a question from a Sky News correspondent about guarantees for non-aggression against Ukraine, Putin said Moscow's actions would depend on the West ensuring Russia's security, in which regard further NATO expansion to the east is unacceptable. "You promised us in the 1990s that [NATO] would not move an inch to the East. You cheated us shamelessly: there have been five waves of NATO expansion... Have we come to the borders of this block? No, they came to our doorstep, and now the corresponding systems are appearing in Romania and Poland. And now you demand some guarantees from me... It is you who must give guarantees, and you are now, not to blurt it out for decades!" Putin said.
Yes, Moscow has never received any written guarantees on NATO's refusal to expand. But during the unification of Germany in 1990, there were relevant oral agreements with USSR President Mikhail Gorbachev. Today, NATO fervently denies any agreements with Moscow to this effect. Let's make it clear that after both the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact collapsed, the alliance was not eliminated, but rather kept expanding. As President Putin noted, there have been as many as five waves. Moreover, states from the former socialist camp joined the alliance in different years: Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic in 1999; Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia and Estonia in 2004; Albania and Croatia in 2009; North Macedonia in 2020. For the time being, NATO has 30 member-states. As of 2022, the alliance officially recognizes three more aspiring countries: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia and Ukraine.
The organization's strategic concept adopted at the Lisbon summit in November 2010, contains a confirmed open door policy for new members, but indicates that candidates should have no issues that may weaken common security. Ukraine, with its virtual civil war, is a perfect fit for the latter category. Although Brussels assures Kiev's membership is not in the cards any time soon, Moscow's anxiety is not misplaced, since the United States and its allies see Ukraine as the main irritant for Russia and a springboard for deploying their missiles.
Here it is perhaps appropriate to recall that the history of NATO is the history of an arms race and aggression. For over 60 years of its existence, the alliance has vividly demonstrated its essence, unleashing more than 200 wars, military conflicts and coups across the globe (including Korea, Vietnam, Yugoslavia, Iraq, and Afghanistan). US-led Western countries turned NATO into a hammerhead first against the USSR, and then against Russia. Washington and Brussels openly declare the entire world a zone of their "vital interests". However, despite the broad geography of the alliance's "performance", its main goal remains anti-Russian focus.
Just like Hitler at his time, the United States and NATO have apparently proclaimed "Drang nach Osten" ("Drive to the East"). Which fact is what worries Moscow the most right now. It is well aware that NATO's further advance to the east is fraught with new wars and repartition of the world. The United States, accustomed to "pulling chestnuts out of fire by proxy," primarily intends to involve new members of the bloc in conflicts. Ukraine and Georgia may well become those "proxies". NATO's expansion aggravated the situation, creating a "risk zone" next to Russia's state borders. For instance, in the 1980s, the impact point time of missiles launched from West Germany was estimated at 12 minutes, while after the Baltic countries joined the alliance it turned to 4 minutes only. For this very reason Russia demands that the West stop letting NATO expand to the east.
That is why, according to Sergei Ryabkov, Moscow has taken a tough stance in negotiations with the United States and NATO on security guarantees. "We do not threaten anyone with consequences if this does not take place. However, we constantly hear from the US side and from the EU, if it comes to that, that Russia will have to pay some price, a high price, if it does or does not do something and what these people want or do not want. It is the latest experience rather than history, which shows that such a talk is in principle unacceptable for us," the Deputy Minister stressed. Speaking about history, Ryabkov apparently implied the outcome of World War II, when it was largely thanks to our country that a crushing blow was dealt to Nazi Germany and its plans for "Drang nah Osten". Both Washington and Brussels have to remember that.
In sum, after the January, 10 Russian-American consultations, there was some disappointment and even anxiety. "I hope there will be at least a better, greater understanding will develop in the national circle that this cannot be brought to a standstill and a breakthrough is needed, a real step towards Russia," Sergei Ryabkov said following the talks. But the United States and NATO don't seem ready for such a step. There are no prerequisites as of today, at least.
Don't let us jump to conclusions and wait for the results of the Russia-NATO Council meeting of January 12 in Brussels, as well as for Washington's official response to Russian proposals. As the media got to know, the United States promised a written response next week already.
