© TASS

Amid the acute shortage of natural gas in the European Union, a large-scale economic crisis may overwhelm the Old World. No full-fledged alternatives have been found to replace Russian gas waived by the European Commission in response to Vladimir Putin’s special military operation in Ukraine. And no provision exists for a quick solution here (think of Confucius’ famous aphorism about "looking for a black cat in a dark room"). There are only slight verbal interventions by European power brokers. Thus, July 9 saw head of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen address a press conference to announce plans of presenting a program of action if Russian gas supply comes to an end. But we have already seen quite a lot of dumb plans like this.

"It is surprising that European countries are consistently making decisions on plans to deliberately shun Russian gas, which until recently accounted for about 45% of imports. In particular, for political reasons, at the European side’s behest, the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline with a capacity of 55 billion cubic meters of gas per year has been frozen. Such decisions contradict common sense, economic feasibility, as well as the interests of the economy and the citizens of Europe, who are deprived of the opportunity to receive sufficient volumes of gas at an affordable price," Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak wrote in his article for the Energy Policy magazine of July 12.

Meanwhile, European exchange price of gas rushed up again in the first decade of July, reaching the level of nearly $2,000 per thousand cubic meters ($1950 on the ICE exchange, to be more precise). However, the market "cooled down" a little bit after that, as the price decreased to the level of $1,750 on July 12. The bifurcations are primarily caused by Gazprom's planned preventive maintenance of the Nord Stream pipeline. Since July 11, natural gas from Russia to the European Union has been halted via the two trans-Baltic pipeline branches, with the only option left being the Gas Transmission System of Ukraine (GTSU). Still, this format has been also "truncated" for two months already: starting May 11, there has been a single operating entry point to Ukraine – the Sudzha metering station pumping a daily 40 mln cubic meters with a contract bar of nearly 110 mln. Nord Stream maintenance is scheduled to last until July 21. But it may be delayed, as some German officials believe. Which jeopardizes plans of filling Europe's underground gas storage facilities by the cold season. And the EU's focus on buying expensive gas around the globe scales the energy crisis up – European companies buy the fuel wherever possible, inciting its shortage in Pakistan, India, Bangladesh and a number of other developing economies struggling to compete with European buyers. In the first quarter alone, the EU bought imported gas worth some 78 billion euros. Such estimates are provided by the latest EC sectoral paper.

Despite Brussels’ anti-Russian sentiment, European companies are still eager to keep receiving Russian gas, as typified in the case with the Nord Stream turbine produced by Germany’s Siemens. The epic will likely enter its final straight in the nearest future, as the turbine "stuck" after planned maintenance in Canada may be sent to Germany with a further transfer to Gazprom, according to a report by Reuters of July 9 referring to government sources of a country involved. Thus, Ottawa and Berlin won’t make Canada violate its own anti-Russian sanctions expanded in the first decade of June. Earlier, German government spokesman Steffen Hebestreit said his country got "positive signals" from the Canadian authorities, but he did not officially announce the start of equipment delivery. The very next day Reuters cited Canadian Minister of Natural Resources Jonathan Wilkinson as saying that Ottawa would still hand the turbine over to Berlin. The definite date is yet to be fixed, though the shipment is expected at some point in mid-July. Upon receiving the turbine, Germany will have to hastily deliver it to Gazprom to "fit in" the Nord Stream planned repair timing. But even if the Russian gas giant gets the module, its management may extend the pipeline’s suspension period. After all, there are several turbines to be repaired; and some time is required to bring the "Canadian traveler" back to its proper location.

European bureaucrats are really scared of "scenario B", i.e. launching Nord Stream 2 as a backup pipeline (with its certification incomplete for the time being). They even chose to play back in the "sanctions field", hopeful that the turbine’s comeback would allow bringing the Nord Stream to application rating conditions. Now it's up to Gazprom to decide whether to rush into releasing the system from repair. The high gas "check" in the European stock exchanges reflects the complexity of what is going on. In general, the situation around both Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2 is far from being exhausted.