© AP Photo/Andrew Harnik/TASS

In less than a month, congressional elections will be held in the United States, which are commonly called midterm as they take place exactly in the middle of four-year presidential terms in even-numbered years. The current event will feature the election of all the 435 House MPs and 34 Senators.

Notably, the ruling Democratic Party has a majority in both chambers, but the margin is razor-thin. Thus, in the House of Representatives, it accounts for just 9 people, while in the Senate there is an equal number of Democrats and Republicans – 50 each. Under US Constitution, the chairman of the upper house of Congress is the Vice President, today it is Kamala Harris. In case of a tie vote on controversial issues, her vote becomes decisive, which is why the Democrats are said to have a Senate majority.

There is only a month left before the midterm elections, but the US domestic situation remains ambiguous, and no one will come at predicting the outcome now. Most experts tend to believe things will depend on the economic climate.  And this doesn't bode well for the Democrats.

For instance, experts of The Hill are sure President Joe Biden is mercilessly "squandering" public money, which is fraught with the deepest economic crisis in US history. In their opinion, his latest move alone – plans to write off student debts – will cost $400 billion, as estimated by the Congressional Budget Office to cost. Together with all the associated expenditures, the overall sum will be $600 billion, the Committee for a Responsible State Budget (CRFB) said.

Incogitant spending of budgetary funds turns into an even greater inflation growth, which already exceeded 9.1% in the summer months. This entailed spiking gasoline prices and deals a severe blow on car-loving America. Nothing of the kind has happened there over the last forty years. The American economy’s major problem is a catastrophic energy deficit. Let's bear in mind that the OPEC+ countries has recently agreed to cut oil production by 2 million barrels per day, which will inevitably lead to an even greater increase in the cost of energy resources in the United States. Still, President Biden does not even contemplate steps to stabilize the situation at home, according to experts.

The current head of the White House has been actively blaming the conflict in Ukraine for the eighth month in a row, allocating multibillion-dollar aid to its regime and discontentedly nodding towards the Kremlin and personally Russian President Vladimir Putin, in particular when responding to hard-nosed questions from his own public. At the same time, the American leader prefers to keep mum on the harmful anti-Russian sanctions that have brought the United States and the entire collective West to the verge of a severe economic downfall.

In this regard, it is hardly surprising that President Joe Biden’s public approval dropped to a record low (40%) a month before the midterm elections, one point over the past week alone. A report to this effect was released by Reuters referring to Reuters/Ipsos public opinion poll. Biden's plunging rankings were facilitated by expectations that November elections would see his Democratic Party lose control of the House of Representatives and maybe even the Senate.

Meanwhile, the Republican Party is watchful and has recently presented its strategy for the upcoming November elections pompously titled "Commitment to America". Its key priorities are: curbing inflation and illegal immigration, fighting crime and conducting investigations into the current democratic government’s failed policy, as they see it. Pundits say the Republicans have shifted their traditional focus from international problems to improving the lives of ordinary people, and concerns about economic environment. Which may well bring them success in a month’s time. Moreover, according to forecasts by the national poll aggregator Fivethirtyeight, Republicans still have high chances (about 70%) of regaining House control in November. For the Senate, such a probability is much lower – some 30%.

Interestingly, the strategy was made public at a moment critical for the Republicans. Yes, the party does have the weather because of the unstable economy and President Biden’s low approval rankings. But on the other hand, the Democrats have strengthened their positions following the recent Supreme Court ruling on abortions, and embarked on a crusade against ex-President Trump, as testified by investigations against him both in the Congress and the Ministry of Justice, including the FBI, as well as in American intelligence.

But at the moment, Republicans have somewhat better chances. However, sociologists and surveys make us remember that any US election is unpredictable, and the situation may change rapidly. So far, no one is heading towards a guaranteed victory. So far, no one is losing 100%, even the sometimes-inadequate American President. Amid mutual denial and a risk-taking struggle, if the Democratic and Republican politicians bring matters to a civil war, which analysts deem rather likely, the whole of America will lose, absolutely and irrevocably.

Not so long ago, referring to Democratic Senator Chris Murphy, The Washington Post wrote that a Republican victory in the midterm election may weaken Washington's support for Ukraine. According to the lawmaker, there are dissenters in the American political elite (some associated with Donald Trump), who have a number of reasons to take a dim view of the Ukrainian case and relevant support. In this regard, the Connecticut Democrat warned that strengthened Republican control over the Congress might put an end the US administration's military assistance to Ukraine, which has already exceeded $15 billion this year alone.