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Last week, the US Department of Defense released unclassified versions of three important documents at once on its website – the National Defense Strategy (NDS), the Nuclear Posture Reviews (NPR) and the Missile Defense Reviews (MDR). Their classified versions were submitted to the Congress along with the Fiscal Year 2023 Federal Budget.
The joint preparation of documents, according to US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, has provided a close link between the Pentagon's strategy and resources available. "By weaving these documents together, we help ensure that the entire department is moving forward together, matching our resources to our goals," Austin said. "The strength and combat credibility of the joint force remains central to integrated deterrence."
Interestingly, the Pentagon's release of the 80-page US Defense Strategy came just two weeks after the White House unveiled the Biden-Harris Administration's National Security Strategy, NSS. And the new defense one has virtually become its follow-up. Both name the rising China and the "still" dangerous Russia as major threats. Moreover, the Pentagon is sure these are even more dangerous than terrorist ones. At the same time, despite its conflict with both powers threatening to enter a hot phase, Washington does not give up on diplomacy on issues such as nuclear deterrence. Let’s be thankful for small mercies, as the phrase goes.
The US National Defense Strategy sets out four top-level issues to prioritize. They are:
► Defending the homeland, paced to the growing multi-domain threat posed by the PRC;
► Deterring strategic attacks against the United States, Allies, and partners;
► Deterring aggression, while being prepared to prevail in conflict when necessary – prioritizing the PRC challenge in the Indo-Pacific region, then the Russia challenge in Europe; and,
► Building a resilient Joint Force and defense ecosystem.
The PRC is called the “most consequential strategic competitor for the coming decades”. Beijing is the only rival willing to change the world order and having a growing number of opportunities for this every now and then, Austin said, introducing the new US defense strategies to the public. The Pentagon came to realize this following on from PRC’s increasingly aggressive actions to redistribute the Indo-Pacific region (ITR) and the international system in compliance with its authoritarian aspirations, he stressed.
The DoD’s concern is also brought about by China's clearly stated intent to swiftly modernize and expand its People’s Liberation Army. Indeed, the recently held twentieth CPC Congress saw Chinese President Xi Jinping designate 2027 as the deadline for this. The United States considers the accelerated PLA modernization directly linked to China's desire to reunite with Taiwan militarily.
At the same time, the Pentagon plans to prevent threats coming from the rising China through an "unmatched network of allies and partners" in the region and a “resilient security architecture” to sustain a free and open regional order. The leading partners in the ITR are participants of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), which, along with the United States, includes Australia, Japan and India. Another important alliance is called AUKUS – the trilateral format comprising Australia, the United States and the United Kingdom.
It is hardly surprising that America’s new strategy deems maintaining Taiwan’s defensive capability in the face of China as one of its priorities in the ITR. The document particularly notes that Beijing is seeking to weaken Washington’s alliance with its Asian partners, while increasing its military and nuclear forces and threatening Taiwan. “The Department will support Taiwan’s asymmetric self-defense commensurate with the evolving PRC threat and consistent with our one China policy,” the document goes on to say.
Despite Pentagon’s pledge to "focus on the PRC," it also prioritizes the "acute" threat coming from Russia, which is primarily related to the conflict in Ukraine. “We will work closely with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and our partners to provide U.S. leadership, develop key enabling capabilities, and deepen interoperability," the document reads. Among the potential Russian challenges, the DoD lists nuclear, information, cyber and space threats against the United States and its allies, as well as Moscow's nuclear saber-rattling as regards using chemical and biological weapons and long-range cruise missiles.
By the way, China and Russia are also given pride of place in two other parts of the defense document that dwell upon nuclear deterrence and missile defense. Threats from North Korea and Iran are moderate. In particular, the Pentagon does not currently consider Tehran aspiring to develop nuclear weapons. The NDS also pays closest attention to security challenges like the COVID-19 pandemic and climate change.
Generally, the US doctrine on the use of nuclear weapons has stayed the same, even though President Joe Biden suggested making it more transparent. In particular, a year ago Politico wrote the following: “Biden’s top national security advisers will soon review the conditions under which the United States might resort to using nuclear weapons. Among the options are adopting a «no first use» policy, or declaring that the «sole purpose» of the arsenal is to deter a nuclear conflict.” However, Pentagon later concluded that those "would result in an unacceptable level of risk, in light of the range of non-nuclear capabilities being developed and fielded by competitors." For which read by Russia and China. Therefore, as noted in the document, a change in the doctrine now "may have strategic effect against the United States or its allies and partners."
However, the paper on countering nuclear threats contradicts President Biden's election promises to reduce the role of nuclear weapons in American strategy, a Time magazine article notes. A perplexing thing for the outlet, this is hardly surprising to those keeping a close eye on US developments, as Washington has turned a possible nuclear war into a major overhyped issue...
