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Top stories from the Russian press on Friday, November 11th, prepared by TASS

Kommersant: Russia urges international inspectors to continue searching for 'dirty bomb' in Ukraine

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspected three nuclear facilities in Ukraine where, in Moscow's opinion, a "dirty bomb" could be produced. Russia provided its initial assessment of the findings. The Ukrainian facilities should continue to be inspected, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry. Rafael Grossi, the agency's head, previously stated that there were no signs of any illegal use of nuclear materials in Ukraine, Kommersant writes.

Representative of the Russian delegation to the UN Alexander Shevchenko reacted to the IAEA conclusions. According to the diplomat, Russia moves forward with the understanding that these inspections are "just the beginning." Moscow expects that the IAEA "will continue to exercise the utmost control" over how Kiev is fulfilling its obligations to use the peaceful atom. "We call on the IAEA to pay close attention to any information on possible provocations with the use of a ‘dirty bomb’ by the Kiev regime," Shevchenko said.

Initially, the Russian Defense Ministry mentioned only two Ukrainian installations capable of producing a "dirty bomb." Meanwhile, the department stressed that several other Ukrainian organizations may be participating in unlawful nuclear activity.

It is unclear whether IAEA experts will continue to inspect the Ukrainian facilities mentioned by Russian officials, Kommersant writes. According to the newspaper, Ukraine's Western partners appear to see no purpose in continuing to look for traces of a "dirty bomb," since they initially dismissed the Russian charges as "blatantly false." Following the inspectors' visit, G7 members released a joint statement rejecting Russia's "false claims."

Vedomosti: Trump slumps after Republicans’ lackluster election performance

An important preliminary outcome of the November 8 midterm elections in the US was the landslide victory of Florida Governor, 44-year-old Republican Ron DeSantis, a potential intra-party rival of former President Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential race. DeSantis gained 59% of the vote against 40% by Democrat Charlie Crist. He convincingly won Florida’s most "Democrat" county - Miami-Dade - where the Republicans have not won since 2002. At the same time, according to experts interviewed by Vedomosti, it may be too early to completely write Trump off.

Trump has become a toxic figure for his party, but he remains a significant political figure and the most popular politician among Republicans, adviser to the director of the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies Ilya Kravchenko told the newspaper. Despite DeSantis’ resounding victory in Florida, he is by no means a recognizable and successful political figure across the country and without a large-scale PR campaign it would be impossible to run DeSantis for the presidency in place of Trump, the expert added.

The Republicans failed to pull off their much-anticipated ‘red wave’ trouncing of the Democrats in the midterm elections, researcher at the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the HSE University Lev Sokolshchik noted. However, the expert believes that the Republicans may well have a good chance in 2024 if they continue to focus on the economy.

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Where are Russia’s Southeast Asian ambitions headed?

The leaders of countries belonging to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) will gather on Friday in the capital of Cambodia, where the focus will be on stopping the violence in Myanmar (Burma) where a military coup in 2021 took place. Meanwhile, leaders from the US, China, Japan, and South Korea also are going to come to Cambodia to hold meetings with the bloc. According to Nezavisimaya Gazeta, this makes an element of rivalry between the major powers during the summit inevitable, as does the upcoming G20 forum in Indonesia. Notably, Russia’s presence at the upcoming events will be limited, despite the region’s growing importance for Moscow.

According to AP news, besides Myanmar, the ASEAN will discuss disputes over islands in the South China Sea, the post-pandemic economic recovery, trade, and climate change - all important topics for the US and China. However, after the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine, Southeast Asia’s importance for Russia is also on the rise, since it needs new markets for energy products and imports of goods that have become difficult to get from Europe, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.

Earlier, Moscow held a high-level conference with ASEAN in Sochi. However, this time Russian President Vladimir Putin is not flying to the meeting. Therefore, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will represent Russia at the East Asia Summit.

Senior Research Fellow at the Higher School of Economics Vasily Kashin believes that Russia's influence in the region does not depend on who will represent it at the summits. "The most important thing is the outcome of the military operation in Ukraine. This will predetermine its political weight in Southeast Asia in the future," he maintained.

Vedomosti: Armenian PM proposes guarantees for Karabakh and demilitarized zone

At his November 10 government meeting, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan suggested creating a 3-km demilitarized zone around the unrecognized Karabakh region and on the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan. According to him, the decision will minimize the need for Nagorno-Karabakh to have its own army. Pashinyan also proposes withdrawing troops from the Armenian-Azerbaijani border and creating a similar security zone there. Experts told Vedomosti, the initiative seems to be difficult to implement, but could be the only option for Armenia.

Professor Norayr Dunamalyan from the Department of Political Science at the Russian-Armenian (Slavonic) University believes that the main idea of Pashinyan's proposal covers two aspects: the delimitation of borders and the withdrawal of Azerbaijani troops from the territory of Armenia. According to the scholar, creating a demilitarized zone under the current conditions is quite difficult to fathom.

Researcher at the Center for Post-Soviet Studies at IMEMO Stanislav Pritchin believes that Pashinyan's proposals are related to the fact that he is trying to create security conditions for Armenia, because there are no actual mechanisms left for it. The CSTO did not try to ensure Armenia’s security, since the country has no legally set border, Pritchin noted. According to the expert, no one can give Yerevan guarantees that Azerbaijan will not continue to use a strategy of step-by-step pressure on Armenia. If demilitarized zones become a step towards opening the borders and signing a peace treaty, Azerbaijan may agree to it, he added.

Izvestia: How price cap will change Russian oil industry

The G7 bid to set a price cap on Russian oil starting in December is unlikely to significantly change the situation on the world market, as well as for Russian companies, Izvestia writes. Russia’s oil exports to the US have been banned for a long time, and sea supplies to Europe are reduced literally on a weekly basis. Certain difficulties may arise with insuring alternative supplies, but experts generally do not see prospects for a radical decline in exports from Russia.

President of the Institute of Energy and Finance Marcel Salikhov believes that the effect of the price cap will be relatively small. "First, the parameters and conditions for introducing the price cap mechanism, which were publicly announced, are rather mild. This indicates that the US is currently not ready to push for the actual implementation of the mechanism. Second, Russia’s oil output in October remained stable at the level of 1.47 mln tonnes per day. Fluctuations in exports and primary oil refining were insignificant," he noted.

"According to our estimates, crude oil exports in 2023 will decrease by 6-8% after the price cap is adopted, and the EU introduces its embargo," the analyst clarified.

On the other hand, Finam analyst Andrey Maslov expects that the price cap will not go unnoticed for the Russian oil industry. With a cap of $62-65, India and China are likely to ask to increase the already substantial discount on oil, he added. At the same time, the expert believes that insurance for supplies to China and India would be unnecessary. "India and China are well aware that they remain the main consumers of Russian oil and can impose conditions on Russia. Therefore, most likely, they will not have to insure deliveries, since most oil supplies from Russia will not go anywhere except to these countries ‘officially’," he noted.