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Top stories from the Russian press on Wednesday, November 16th, prepared by TASS

Коmmersant: Poland reports two people killed by missiles

For the first time, the Ukrainian conflict has led to immediate tragic consequences for a NATO country and the EU. On Tuesday night, Polish media outlets reported two people killed as a result of two missiles falling in the Przewodow village in the eastern part of the country not far from the Ukrainian border. According to journalists, it could be debris from a missile shot down by the Ukrainian army. Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has called an emergency meeting. Even before any official statements came from Warsaw, Poland’s neighbors rushed to blame Russia. Meanwhile, the Russian Defense Ministry branded these reports as an "intentional provocation in order to escalate the situation," assuring that "the published photos of the debris from the accident site have nothing in common with Russian weapons."

"It seems that we are entering a new phase of the conflict when Central/Eastern Europe fully becomes a near-frontline zone and begins to act accordingly attracting the utmost attention to itself in order to obtain more guarantees and assert its role," Editor-in-Chief of the Russia in Global Affairs magazine Fyodor Lukyanov wrote on his Telegram channel. In his opinion, "the spread of the actual combat zone beyond Ukraine still seems unlikely yet intra-NATO tensions will mount." "Unfortunately, in the current atmosphere it is impossible to hope for joint actions by opposing states in order to clarify the real picture of the events and avoid excessive aggravation. Especially since the main part here is played by the countries of Central and Eastern Europe. This increases the risks, to put it mildly. However, the final say is not up to them," the expert added.

Izvestia: G20 players weigh in on the Ukraine crisis

Russia has included a provision on various assessments of the Ukraine crisis in the G20’s final declaration, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who headed the Russian delegation to the summit, told a subsequent press conference. In Indonesia, he held a number of bilateral meetings, among them, with German and French delegates. This time, Western participants did not boycott Russia. Despite the irreconcilable stances of Moscow and Kiev, the experts interviewed by Izvestia did not diminish the significance of the signals to hold talks coming from the G20 participants. Chairman of the Valdai Discussion Club Andrey Bystritsky told Izvestia that the G20 can become a venue to seek a resolution to the crisis.

"It is important to keep in mind that the G20 is not just Western countries by far. Of course, the Ukrainian factor concerns everyone. Many participants, including China, insist on finding a political solution and applying the use of legitimate international law which, by the way, the West is not doing," the expert noted.

According to him, the Group of Twenty is very close to a world government. "This is approximately 75% of the world’s population and 85% of its economy. The issue is only in whether G20 leaders are capable of reaching an agreement with each other. At talks with Joe Biden, China’s leader Xi Jinping hinted that the US could have played a part in stopping the bloodshed if an agreement on important issues was reached," he added.

Senior Research Fellow at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of China and Contemporary Asia Yelena Safronova told the newspaper that currently Beijing is interested both in multi-vectored development of ties with Russia and in predictable relations with Washington. "Over several years of confrontation with the US, China, apparently, has realized that the assertive style of ‘wolf warrior’ diplomacy is not always effective," she said, adding that Beijing will try to clarify its stance in relations with Washington while maximally retaining the tonality of partnership with Moscow.

In the end, the peace process will be related to seeking opportunities on lifting some sanctions, political scientist Ilya Grashchenkov thinks, pointing out that the sides have realized that conditions for a settlement need to be altered and a joint document that will be approved at the G20 summit is a positive basis for further dialogue.

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Zelensky trots out peace formula to continue waging war

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky has put forward his own "peace formula" to the G20 summit. Overall, his proposals appeared radical. It seems that amid the recent events, including the withdrawal of Russian troops from Kherson, Kiev became drunk with success. Experts doubt that there is a possibility of serious talks.

Commenting on the Ukrainian leader’s statements, Program Director at the Valdai Discussion Club Oleg Barabanov told the newspaper that previously, the subject of an all-for-all POW swap has not been that openly brought up. Yet it seems that there are more Ukrainian POWs in Russia than the Russian ones in Ukraine so this principle benefits Kiev more. He also noted that the Zelensky regime had begun spreading information about its possible advancement on the Dnieper’s left bank, and in addition to the UN resolution on reparations and possible statements condemning Russia at the G20 summit, these are all elements that induce Kiev to boast about some achievements.

According to the expert, under these circumstances it is unlikely that the Kiev regime will tone down its stance at talks with Moscow. This was confirmed by Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian armed forces Valery Zaluzhny who earlier in a conversation with Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley declared any compromises impossible. "It is obvious that entering any serious talks now is unrealistic. Unless, of course, the Russian side admits that it is not able to handle this conflict," the analyst said. He added that so far there are no alternative Ukrainian figures capable of conducting a more constructive dialogue with Russia.

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Taliban offended by lack of invitation to Moscow talks

Arranging the fourth session of Moscow talks on Afghanistan scheduled for November 16 resulted in tensions between the hosts and the government in Kabul. The Russians did not invite members of the Taliban movement (outlawed in Russia) whose delegates attended the event last year. The group’s representatives cautioned Russia about negative consequences for diplomatic interaction.

In a conversation with the newspaper, political scientist Andrey Kazantsev expressed doubts that there are fewer problems with Afghanistan now. "There are many and they are not just inside Afghanistan but also around it," he explained, pointing out that regional players have very different attitudes with regards to the Taliban regime and the best thing the Moscow format can do is coordinate these varying stances.

Explaining why the Russian side did not invite key Taliban figures, the expert noted that the current authorities in Kabul are not inclined to fulfill their promises and do not display any unity. The expert concluded by saying that it is easier to reach specific agreements among regional players than in the presence of the Taliban representatives.

Vedomosti: Russia resumes oil deliveries to Egypt, UAE, Cuba

Amid reduced supplies to Europe in 2022, Russian oil companies returned to the markets they abandoned several years ago, according to the November 10 Argus report. In January-September 2022, small batches of Urals were delivered to Egypt, the UAE, Cuba and Sri Lanka.

Russian oil exports to Sri Lanka in 2022 were in demand amid the crisis there and the subsequent fuel shortage, says B1 Moscow Energy Center chief Olga Beloglazova. "[For Cuba and Sri Lanka] prices for Russian raw materials are also attractive compared to other alternatives," she specified.

Egypt, Cuba and other countries have the potential to buy Russian oil yet these are still not key markets for Russia, according to Andrey Maslov, an analyst at Finam. He told the newspaper that Africa and South America have their own oil producing capacities. These countries can buy Russian oil in order to later resell it to others. The analyst added that a lower Urals price has also attracted new customers.