© AP Photo/Wu Taijing/TASS

Local government elections held in Taiwan has revered the island’s political configuration. It has become the first nationwide vote in the 23 million-strong Taiwan amid its transformation into one of the key destabilizing factors in the present-day world (along with the conflict in Ukraine).

We should immediately note that the outcome has testified to the crushing defeat of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which relies on cooperation with the United States. As a result, local power has passed to the opposition Kuomintang Party (KMT), which adheres to the policy of rapprochement with mainland China. The former won a mere five of the 21 mandates for city and municipality heads, while the latter got 13 ones. It is fitting that its candidates took the mayoral seats in four of the island’s six largest cities, including Taipei.

With such an election outcome, Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen immediately quit as head of the ruling party, having assumed responsibility for its loss, but she will remain president until the 2024 elections. It may be said without exaggeration that the real election loser is the United States, and the real winner is mainland China, as it has got a chance to proceed with its policy of peaceful unification with the "island of discord".

However, the Taiwan-related tension should not be assumed to have disappeared overnight after the Kuomintang Party’s success. Consistent with this, the very next day saw the island's defense department announce that four navy ships and eight aircraft of the People's Liberation Army of China (PLA) were recorded to have approached it over the last 24 hours. In response, Taipei made its fighter jets get off, spread warning signals and deployed anti-aircraft missile systems.

Nor should we assume Washington will leave Taiwan alone. It's no secret that it needs the island to maintain tense relations with China, just like it needs Ukraine to contain and weaken Russia. Statements by American officials are a clear proof of that. For instance, right before the election, the Taiwan issue was targeted by the US and Chinese Defense Ministers Lloyd Austin and Wei Fenghe during their conversation in Phnom Penh, which hosted a meeting of ASEAN defense ministers with their dialogue partners last week.

Upon returning home, Austin was asked how the United States’ allies in the Indo-Pacific region (ITR) would behave in case of China's attempt to forcibly annex Taiwan. They would be guided by both loyalty to the USA and willingness to stand up for the rules-based international order in their actions, he said, without specifying what those might be. But aware of Washington's behavior pattern on the world stage, it is safe to assume that the United States is ready to forcefully defend Taipei’s "independence", seeking to avoid its reunification with mainland China.

Just a reminder: Tsai Ing-wen’s DPP came to power in 2016 to immediately set off on the road to curtail ties with the PRC. Interestingly, the beginning of its rule coincided with Donald Trump’s election as President of the United States, who set about supporting actors eager to join the China deterrence policy. Taiwan suited perfectly and became Washington’s valuable asset, which the island's administration has been trying to trade on over the past few years, enjoying political support and impressive military assistance.

The "honeymoon" in relations between the United States and Taiwan, which lasted years until the current administration’s came to power, culminated in House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s notorious visit to the island in August this year. To her and head of the Taiwanese administration Tsai Ing-wen, it was the most high-profile political move. And the Chinese side did not dare to take decisive action, against all the odds. Still, Beijing did snatch an opportunity to flex PLA’s muscles around Taiwan.

Notably, the Kuomintang party’s victory may be a prelude to its return to power in early 2024. In such a case, we can expect a noticeable ˗ if not particularly drastic ˗ change in Taipei's relations with mainland China that have reached a record low over the past decade. After all, a third of Taiwan's foreign trade is known to fall upon China, and the Kuomintang hardly wants to lose this potential resource, if it sweeps to power. Moreover, Taipei and Beijing do know what it feels like to cooperate successfully, after all. Thus, after the Kuomintang Party led by Ma Ying-jeou came to power on the island in 2008, the two signed a number of major tourism and business agreements.

However, since the DPP came to stand at the helm again in 2016, there has been another rollback in relations. Little wonder that Chinese President Xi Jinping off-handedly said China would rail against any action towards achieving the so-called independence of Taiwan.

Meanwhile, having excluded a military action during Pelosi's visit, China continues to exert pressure on the island, conducting regular maneuvers off its coast. When addressing the twentieth CPC Congress in October, Chinese leader Xi Jinping called the Taiwan problem solution a top priority, and made it clear that military action could not be ruled out. In this regard, there has been talk in the region that the conflict between China and the United States over Taiwan may cause a major war in the Pacific. However, the changes that have begun in Taiwan's politics after the Kuomintang victory give mainland China a shot to go ahead with the previous peaceful unification policy that requires no forceful scenario.

However, experts believe Taiwan's unification with China is idle to expect any time soon, since about 80% of the island's population are unsupportive of the idea, even as per Hong Kong’s sample. First and foremost, Taiwan has got used to exist separately from mainland China over the years. Let's not forget that the worldview of ordinary Taiwanese was being affected by powerful indoctrination throughout the West-oriented DPP’s entire rule. With that in mind, one may say there will be neither a war between China and the United States over Taiwan in the foreseeable future, nor a rapid unification under the "one country – two systems" formula.