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Top stories from the Russian press on Wednesday, February 1st, prepared by TASS

Washington, Berlin and London are reluctant to send fighter jets to Kiev, Germany’s chancellor pursued and failed to get more aid for Ukraine during his Latin American tour, and analysts are upbeat about the IMF’s economic outlook for Russia. These stories topped Wednesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

Kommersant: US, Germany, Britain refuse to send fighter jets to Ukraine

Ukraine’s allies in the West differ in their views on the possibility of supplying US-made F-16 fighters and warplanes in general to Kiev. US President Joe Biden, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have so far ruled out any jet deliveries, while French leader Emmanuel Macron said such assistance could be provided if a number of conditions were met. Poland and Lithuania, the two countries who lobbied for Western tank supplies to Ukraine the most, also demanded that fighter jets be delivered. Earlier, the Netherlands promised to consider such a scenario. Meanwhile, the Kiev regime has insisted that it is in dire need of warplanes, despite the lack of consensus among their Western partners.

On the one hand, the situation is similar to the story with Western-made tanks, an option Kiev’s partners originally declined, too. On the other hand, the transfer of fighter jets to Ukraine, the training of pilots to use them and subsequent maintenance will inevitably encounter major technical hurdles that could impede the fulfillment of this request by Ukraine.

Russian International Affairs Council Director General Andrey Kortunov told Kommersant that no fighter jets would be sent to Kiev in the next 12 months for quite a number of reasons. To him, these include escalation concerns, for warplanes would require the West getting involved in the conflict even deeper than in the scenario with tanks. There are other major technical obstacles, too, ranging from training to the availability of runways at Ukrainian airfields, the bulk of which are not adapted for use with F-16s, let alone other models, Kortunov said. "Rather, the focus will be on air defense systems which are easier to use and it would be easier to disguise those. Russia’s superiority in the air is one of the problems facing the Ukrainian army, so this issue will be revisited," the expert concluded.

Izvestia: What’s behind Scholz’s Latin American tour

Late on Monday, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz wrapped up his four-day tour of Latin America. Among other countries, he visited Argentina and Chile. While the leaders mostly discussed economic cooperation, Scholz also sought to enlist the continent’s military support to Ukraine, but in vain. "Argentina and Latin America are not considering any weapons supplies to Ukraine or any other conflict zone, nor are they going to do so," Argentine President Alberto Fernandez said at a joint press conference with Scholz. His Chilean counterpart Gabriel Boric, in his turn, pledged to help Kiev, specifically with demining, after the fighting stops. He also said he would soon hold talks with Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky.

Brazilian President Lula da Silva’s opinion of the developments on the European continent differed from the official stance of Berlin which insists that Moscow alone is to blame. "Brazil is not interested in supplying ammunition so that it could be used [in the situation around Ukraine]. Brazil is a peaceful country," he said. Lula also proposed establishing a club of countries who want peace, and G20 talks could play a role here, he argued.

"Scholz’s visit can be seen as Berlin’s reaction to the signs of an emerging multipolar world. Latin America is a fast-growing region, and Germany understands that only too well," said Artyom Sokolov, a researcher at Moscow State Institute of International Relations. Besides, the German chancellor pursued specific German diplomacy goals during his visit to Latin America, the expert said. South America is rich in mineral resources and is a supplier as such for Germany and it is a favorable market for investment in energy projects, so Scholz achieved significant progress there. Germany is also looking for green hydrogen suppliers.

"The European Union has long been cooperating with Latin America in the oil and gas sector. There are lots of European oil and gas companies there," Professor Viktor Kheifets, director of the Center for Ibero-American Studies at St. Petersburg State University, told Izvestia. According to him, the EU is a major trade partner of Latin America. Kheifets reminded the newspaper that Spain would assume the EU Council Presidency in the second half of 2023, and the EU’s diplomacy chief Josep Borrell has already said that Brussels would try to boost its partnership with Latin America then. So, Scholz’s visit paved the way for that, Kheifets said.

Vedomosti: Analysts upbeat on IMF’s economic outlook for Russia

The Russian economy will expand 0.3% in 2023 after a 2.2% reduction in 2022, according to the International Monetary Fund’s economic growth projections in January. In October, the IMF predicted that Russia’s GDP could decline by 3.4% in 2022 and by 2.3% in 2023.

The latest forecast was much brighter than the Russian government’s outlook. The Economic Development Ministry expects the Russian economy to shrink 0.8% this year, while the Bank of Russia projects a 1% to 4% decline. Auditor Dmitry Zaitsev from Russia’s Accounts Chamber told Vedomosti in December that he expected the Russian economy to fall by around 1% in 2023, and First Deputy Prime Minister Andrey Belousov said in late December that the GDP growth could range between 0% and -1%.

The IMF’s projections are starting to converge with Russian forecasts, an Economic Development Ministry official said as he commented on the latest report: the Russian economy has been a success, overcoming the barrage of sanctions imposed by unfriendly nations. This year, further economic recovery will depend on growth in consumer demand and measures to bolster both corporate and consumer lending, he added.

Yevgeny Mironyuk, a stock market expert at BCS World of Investments, told Vedomosti that the IMF explained its latest forecast with a GDP decline revision for 2022 and the expectation that Russian exports will not dwindle as the country will continue to redirect its trade flows to those economies who are not exerting any sanctions pressure. However, these factors alone do not mean that the Russian economy will show growth, even if it is insignificant, he said, as the price of oil sales will be lower than last year, and smoothing out the negative effects of sanctions in 2022 does not mean the cessation of their impact in the current year.

Director at the NRA rating agency Sergey Grishunin still sees extremely high risks in the economy. These include lower oil production and refining volumes, as well as potential tacit support of the oil price cap by buyers of Russian oil. Because of this, the expert warns, Russian GDP could fall 1.5-2.5% this year. However, the projection could be revised upwards based on the results of the first quarter, he added.

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Pentagon promises South Korea nuclear umbrella

During his visit to Seoul, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said that Washington would be ready to use any weapons, even nuclear ones, if need be, to protect South Korea. This pledge does not target only North Korea. Two weeks ago, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol said that his country could seek nukes to protect itself from threats emanating from the North, an option Washington is strongly opposed to.

High-profile Western military officials have been frequent visitors to Seoul of late. No sooner had NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg visited Korea than Austin arrived. Just like Stoltenberg, the Pentagon chief discussed Ukraine with South Korea’s Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup and the South Korean leader. But, just like the NATO chief, Austin seemingly failed to get any direct or indirect military assistance from Seoul. However, Austin made the most resounding statement when he assured the South Korean defense minister of the US commitment to use conventional and nuclear deterrents to protect South Korea.

"In order to prevent South Korea from becoming a nuclear power, a possibility that is quite real, given its technological capabilities, the Americans have to reassert their guarantees," Chief Research Fellow at the Institute for the US and Canadian Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences Vladimir Batyuk told Nezavisimaya Gazeta. To him, this means that the United States is pursuing an extended deterrence strategy, under which Washington would be ready to use nuclear weapons not only in the event of an attack on its territories, but also if its allies are attacked. "Austin’s statement cannot but worry Russia, for it concerns North Korea, a country bordering on Russia," the expert explained.

Vedomosti: Experts skeptical of Russia’s move to counteract oil price cap

On February 1, the presidential decree on counteracting the price ceiling for Russian oil and petroleum products goes into effect in Russia. According to a resolution adopted by the Russian government on Monday, the Energy Ministry will be in charge of monitoring the requirements for participants in export transactions, Veta Expert Group Managing Partner Ilya Zharsky noted. Meanwhile, the Federal Customs Service will actually control the compliance with the decree, Sergey Uchitel, a partner with Pen & Paper law firm, told Vedomosti. "It will be the Federal Customs Service who will ban the transportation of commodities in the event of any violations, and it will notify Russian Railways or Transneft," he explained.

However, there is no indication that only Russian companies will be monitored, which may imply that foreign oil traders will also be subject to such control, Zharsky stressed.

Also, a risk exists that the customs agency will not be able to analyze heaps of documents that it will have to process and will therefore fail to check whether the reports are correct, an official familiar with the resolution told Vedomosti. According to him, nor is the resolution explicit enough in terms of liability for any violations of it by exporters.