© AP Photo/Petr David Josek/TASS

Top stories from the Russian press on Monday, February 20th, prepared by TASS

The 2023 Munich Security Conference doubles down on support for Ukraine, Biden prepares for his visit to Poland, and China drafts its peace proposal. These stories topped Monday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

Izvestia: Munich Security Conference vows support for Ukraine

The 59th annual security conference has ended in Munich. Very predictably, demands for and promises of further military aid to Ukraine dominated the agenda of the event. Most of the statements were ignored in Moscow, whose officials were not invited to the conference this time, Izvestia writes.

The West opted to assist Ukraine mainly with new weapons deliveries. Since neither diplomacy nor strong economic penalties have changed Russia’s actions, a show of force must be the correct course of action, Germany’s defense minister Boris Pistorius said. In turn, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that Brussels plans to strengthen collaboration with the defense industry in order to accelerate and expand ammunition production for both the Ukrainian military and domestic restocking. Josep Borrell, the EU's foreign policy chief, believes the conflict poses an existential threat to European security.

Russia officially did not comment on these statements. "The Munich Conference did not contribute anything conceptually new in this regard - such strong and contradictory remarks have been made before," Chairman of the Valdai Discussion Club Andrey Bystritskiy told Izvestia.

A behind-the-scenes meeting between China's senior diplomat Wang Yi and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken was another highlight of the conference. Yet, rather than a healthy debate, the meeting devolved into another interchange of unpleasantries, Izvestia writes. "China may initiate peace talks and even offer to act as a platform for them. Nonetheless, they are unlikely to act as a middleman; the Chinese avoid such roles since it is risky," Vasily Kashin, Director at the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at HSE University, told Izvestia.

Izvestia: Biden to reaffirm his backing for Ukraine during Poland visit

US President Joe Biden will travel to Poland at the start of this week, on February 20-22, ahead of the anniversary of the start of the special operation in Ukraine. Although the White House has confirmed that a meeting with Vladimir Zelensky is not on the agenda, Polish President Andrzej Duda has not ruled out Zelensky visiting the nation on the same dates. According to US and Russian experts, the objective of Biden's visit is to persuade European countries to continue giving military aid to Kiev. The hot topic of recent days, the supply of fighter jets to the Ukrainian side, is expected to be discussed as well.

Peter Kuznick, Professor of History and Director of the Nuclear Studies Institute at American University, told Izvestia Biden is coming to Poland as part of a global push to gather support for Kiev "at a critical moment" in the conflict.

He added that the timing is critical - the visit coincides with the anniversary of the special operation, Putin's address to the Federal Assembly, and Russia’s launching its spring military offensive, the professor suggested. All of this makes this a crucial moment to strengthen NATO's resolve, especially amid Europe showing signs of growing conflict fatigue, he added.

At the same time, experts predict that no major decisions will be made during the visit. The trip was planned against the backdrop of a crisis in the American system and Biden's low ratings, Viktor Mizin, Chief Research Fellow at the Center for International Security at IMEMO RAS told Izvestia.

"I believe Biden will appeal to Eastern European leaders to band together around Zelensky, around Ukraine, and to maintain the supply of military equipment," Doctor of Law Alexander Domrin said. Given the current environment and rhetoric, the analyst believes Biden may request aircraft from Eastern European partners.

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: West cautiously awaits China's peace initiative

As follows from a speech by Wang Yi, a member of the Politburo of the CPC Central Committee, China will put forward its peace plan for Ukraine at the security conference in Munich on February 24. President Xi Jinping is likely to present it, although a document on the subject may also be released. The strategy presumes that both the concepts of sovereignty and territorial integrity, as well as Russia's genuine security concerns, must be considered. According to experts interviewed by Nezavisimaya Gazeta, China’s initiative is now geared more towards the West, since the parties are not yet prepared to hold peace discussions.

According to the newspaper, Wang Yi has already brought a number of European diplomats up to speed. Nevertheless, they were unsure whether Beijing's suggestions would be explicit or simply a plea for a peaceful solution, just as they have been in the past. China's portrayal of the West as a warmonger is particularly concerning to European leaders.

Alexander Lukin, who heads the International Affairs Department at the Higher School of Economics, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta, "China has always stood for peace and will almost certainly reiterate its support for all governments' territorial integrity and sovereignty. It is important to note that Wang Yi stated that all parties' concerns should be considered. This means that a peaceful resolution must take into account both Russia’s and Ukraine's concerns. If Russia considers that Ukraine's NATO membership poses a threat to its security, this must be considered."

"It seems that China is uneasy, owing mostly to Western pressure. As a result, China wishes to act in a way that shows its commitment to peace," he added. However, the expert believes that the parties are not yet ready for peace talks and the future declaration will be primarily directed against the Western viewpoint, which the West won’t like, Lukin concluded.

Vedomosti: Western exports to Russia's neighbors soar, sparking fears of sanctions evasion

Western countries have dramatically expanded exports to Russia's neighbors despite a historic decrease in trade with Russia, according to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development's (EBRD) February report. EU exports to Russia in May-July 2022 declined by 56% and 39% - to Belarus compared to 2017-2019. Meanwhile, shipments to Kyrgyzstan climbed by 84%, to Armenia - by 72%, to Tajikistan - by 21%, to Georgia - by 19%, and to Kazakhstan - by 14%. The EBRD suspected that this tendency was linked to economic ties with Russia, which are unfavorable for Western countries, Vedomosti writes.

According to Anna Fedyunina, Deputy Director of the Institute for Structural Policy Research at HSE University, there are a variety of indirect assessments that show Russia's import structure is really shifting significantly. Imports from unfriendly nations are being replaced by imports from China and trade with a number of adjacent countries, most notably those in Central Asia, is actually increasing, she noted.

At the same time, parallel import channels through Central Asia are unlikely to expand much in the future, she noted. The expert believes that Central Asian countries will not strive to increase parallel imports because this could result in secondary sanctions.

Although the threat of secondary sanctions is real, the 10th package of EU sanctions will not include any restrictive measures against Russia's partners in the EAEU and other neighboring countries, even if their participation in parallel import mechanisms is proven, Russian International Affairs Council Program Director Ivan Timofeev believes.

Kommersant: EU determined to normalize Serbia-Kosovo relations

The European Union has set a date for the most important summit between Serbia and Kosovo in many years, which will focus on the EU’s plan to restore relations between the two countries. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Prime Minister of Kosovo Albin Kurti will meet in Brussels on February 27 under EU auspices for the first time since both supported the French-German Kosovo proposal. According to Kommersant's European diplomatic sources, the EU believes that the plan proposed to the parties is not expected to undergo any significant changes, and hopes to reach an agreement between Belgrade and Pristina this spring.

Although this plan does not require mutual recognition by the parties, it does provide for Belgrade's assent to Kosovo's membership in international institutions such as the UN. Pristina and Belgrade must also acknowledge each other's documents and national symbols, and Kosovo Serbs must be given "an acceptable level of self-government."

According to Kommersant, time is of the essence for Belgrade and Pristina to make key decisions. The EU believes that the plan proposed to Serbia and Kosovo does not need significant changes, and international mediators expect Belgrade and Pristina to reach an agreement this spring, European diplomatic sources told the newspaper. Kosovo's Prime Minister confirmed the European Union would take such an approach, adding that the issue was not open for discussion.