© REUTERS/Anushree Fadnavis/TASS
Top stories from the Russian press on Thursday, March 2nd, prepared by TASS
India seeks to avoid condemning Russia at a G20 foreign ministers meeting, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko holds talks with the Chinese leadership during a visit to Beijing and Russia’s Roscosmos State Space Agency plans to cut funding for the International Space Station. These stories topped Thursday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: India reluctant to condemn Russia
A two-day meeting of foreign ministers from the Group of 20 (G20) kicked off in the Indian capital of New Delhi on March 1. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine will be a vital part of the discussion, the Indian Foreign Ministry admitted. However, the host country’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi would like its final document to be focused on the fight against terrorism, debt relief measures for developing countries and climate change rather than on accusations against Russia, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.
According to the Indian media, Modi does not want the meeting to be a repeat of what happened at an event involving G20 finance ministers and central bank heads a couple of days ago. India was unwilling to raise the Ukraine issue then but Western countries insisted that they would not be able to support a final document unless it included an indictment of Russia. In the end, Russia and China refused to sign a joint statement.
Vinay Shukla, a consultant for the Indian magazine Raksha, emphasized that "Indian diplomacy is facing a really difficult challenge." "Modi wants only economic issues and support for developing countries to be discussed with no mention of Ukraine. India believes that developments in Ukraine are Europe’s affair. Perhaps, a formula can be found that suits everyone. However, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will try to sow discord between New Delhi and Moscow," the expert noted. "India’s position on Ukraine has been clear. We don’t condemn Russia, we are neutral and we are in favor of negotiations. Meanwhile, the general debate hasn’t begun yet as bilateral consultations are underway," the analyst added.
The expert points out that India is also chairing the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) this year and is expected to host the organization’s meeting in September.
RBC: What Belarusian president discussed with Chinese leadership
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has met with the Chinese leadership in Beijing, including Prime Minister Li Keqiang, Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress Li Zhanshu and President Xi Jinping. The parties reaffirmed their determination to boost mutual political trust and practical cooperation, RBC writes.
For Lukashenko, China has always been a key foreign policy priority, Director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics Vasily Kashin points out. "Beijing has been a source of investment and loans for Belarus and attracting Chinese investment in industrial projects targeted at the Russian market was, in fact, the main area of cooperation," the expert noted. For China, land transit was crucial in terms of cooperation as Chinese goods passed through Russia and then Belarus, but now, sanctions and counter-sanctions have called this kind of cooperation into question. According to the analyst, although Belarus’ economic importance to China has declined, its political significance is still great.
Lukashenko is one of the few heads of state who actively supported China’s initiative on resolving the conflict in Ukraine. "Belarus values relations with China and while expressing support for its initiatives costs us nothing, it brings practical benefits," Kashin stressed.
Director of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of China and Contemporary Asia Kirill Babayev believes that the visit is highly important for Belarus because the country "is absolutely isolated from the world" and Lukashenko needs to meet with the leader of one of the major world powers. "However, the visit is also very important for China because as far as the global confrontation goes, Belarus is in Russia’s camp of supporters while not actually being directly involved in the conflict," the expert emphasized. "China needs to figure out whether Belarus will continue to pursue such an approach," the expert said.
Izvestia: Why Kiev is deploying troops near Transnistria
The Ukrainian army is getting ready to attack Transnistria, the pretext being a provocation involving Ukrainian troops disguised as Russian service members, Russia’s Defense Ministry said. Ukraine and Moldova rejected these accusations though Kiev officials admitted having amassed considerable forces along the border, Izvestia notes.
Experts have different views on how these regional developments could play out. Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration Professor Natalya Kharitonova does not expect tensions to flare up. "My sources don’t confirm the deployment of additional artillery and air defense systems. The deployment of a Ukrainian battalion equipped with a certain number of armored vehicles is questionable. However, in any case, these forces aren’t sufficient for a large-scale offensive," the expert noted.
According to Kharitonova, Ukraine is not strong enough to open a second front as all its forces are concentrated in Donbass. "Ukraine’s political elites value their reputation as a defensive nation but if the Ukrainian armed forces attack Transnistria, that image will fall apart," Kharitonova emphasized. She added that in theory, Moldova could invite the Ukrainian army, asking for help. "However, I think that Chisinau is unable to deal with such issues at the moment. The 2024 presidential campaign has officially kicked off in the country. [President] Maia Sandu’s rating is low and if fighting breaks out, she will lose what’s left of her public support. Besides, it’s clear that Russia will not sit idly by while Transnistria is attacked, and the Russian Foreign Ministry has made it clear that retaliatory steps will follow. All this prevents a possible aggression against Tiraspol," the analyst pointed out.
Political scientist Marat Bashirov believes, however, that some form of aggression is quite possible. "I have information that Ukraine has significantly increased its military presence along Transnistria’s border, deploying more than 2,000 troops and equipment. There are enough forces to attack the unrecognized republic. In fact, there is only one deterrent. That is the ammunition depots in the Cobasna settlement where weapons from Eastern European countries were stored following the collapse of the Soviet Union. If there is a threat that these depots may be seized, they will simply be blown up. The explosion will be equivalent to dropping five Hiroshima bombs and will wipe out southwestern Ukraine along with Moldova," the expert warned.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Oil war breaks out between Moscow, Washington
March 2023 will be the month that the Russian government’s initiative to reduce its oil production and exports kicks off. Meanwhile, three days after Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated that Moscow would cut oil output by 500,000 barrels per day, Washington announced plans to release an additional 285,000 barrels of oil per day from its state reserves. Some experts believe that the Russian government’s decision will eventually lead to a rise in both global oil prices and the price of Russia’s Urals crude, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.
According to data from the International Energy Agency, Russia’s oil and gas export revenues dropped by nearly 40% in January. However, researchers from the Institute of International Finance, Columbia University and the University of California question the effectiveness of oil sanctions because the price cap on Russian oil has been in effect for almost three months but, despite the $60 per barrel limit, Russian oil prices remained above that level for at least a month after the introduction of the price ceiling.
Experts are divided on Russia’s decision to reduce oil production. Finam analyst Andrey Maslov believes that this step will have little impact on prices.
Commodity markets analyst at Otkritie Investment Oksana Lukicheva, however, pointed out that "Russia has somewhat managed to influence global prices as expectations of an output cut keep the oil market from crashing though demand is still seasonally low and oil volumes haven’t declined yet." According to the analyst, the main goal of Russian companies’ move to reduce oil production is to balance supply and demand for Russian oil following an embargo on exports to the European Union. "Clearly, the redistribution of oil flows that took place after the embargo had been introduced indicated a surplus of Russian oil that needs to be removed from the market," the expert explained, adding that the decision would impact the size of discounts on Urals oil.
Izvestia: Roscosmos plans to cut funding for International Space Station
Russia’s Roscosmos State Space Corporation plans to request 160.4 bln rubles ($2.1 bln) from the government for maintaining the operation of the Russian segment of the International Space Station (ISS) for 2024-2028, industry sources told Izvestia. That said, ISS funding will fall by about 10% per year, according to the newspaper’s estimates based on data from the Federal Space Program and expert assessments.
Experts pointed to several areas where spending could be cut to reduce ISS funding. "First, no upgrades are expected to take place and no new Russian modules will be delivered to orbit," Associate Professor at the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics Denis Domashchenko said. "The preparation and launch of the Nauka module required significant funding but now, there are no more large-scale projects of this kind related to the ISS. Second, the Federal Space Program will no longer fund some of the cooperation contracts with the European Space Agency and NASA. Third, the staff involved in the ISS manned space program may be optimized," he added.
"It is impossible to exclude the cost of maintaining cosmonauts’ wellbeing and the station’s operation from the budget," a source in an organization related to space programs explained. "However, the number of experiments may well be reduced without putting the lives of crew members in danger. Especially since the Nauka module is not fully equipped at the moment and full-fledged experiments cannot be conducted. Perhaps, it has been decided to carry on with just the most important experiments for the time being, whose results could be used on Earth for practical purposes," the source said, adding that a large number of experiments used to be conducted together with the EU but their number has decreased dramatically.
"Today, we need money to implement the Russian national orbital station project, splash the ISS down into the ocean (it will have to be done sooner or later and preparations should begin now) and develop the Oryol reusable crewed spacecraft to fly to the Moon," a Roscosmos source said.
