© Michael Tereschenko/TASS
Western countries and the United States do not only help the Ukrainian regime and army with funds and weapons, but also instigate a new round of the conflict. This happens in an explicit manner: the other day, US Strategic Communications Coordinator John Kirby bluntly stated Washington opposes the cessation of warfare. And Secretary of State Anthony Blinken confirmed that the United States will keep supporting Ukraine for as long as it takes. Kiev and NATO’s military plans focus on creating a large Ukrainian group of forces to conduct a spring offensive along several directions. According to The New York Times, last week already saw the top US generals conduct a series of staff exercises to work out potential offensive options. The upcoming escalation is pointed to by a variety of factors.
On March 3, the Pentagon announced the thirty-third package of military-technical assistance to Ukraine, comprising military products worth over $400 million: ammunition of various types and calibers for barrel and rocket artillery, engineering and demolition equipment, hardware and software, spare parts, and a great many special-purpose offensive machines to overcome ditches and rivers. The latter include M60 self-propelled assault bridges and panels to them, pontoon ferries, as well as engineering structures and systems to undermine and break through defensive belts.
The armored bridge-layers are designed to quickly mend metal assault bridges over obstacles like antivehicular ditches, scarps and counterscarps, channels, streams, rivers, and cloves. They are tasked with track-laying for various types of vehicles that are always noticeable and vulnerable targets while being transported to the combat zone. So, this process will be a secret one to mark the beginning of an offensive.
The Ukrainian troops are actively receiving German- and American-made tank bridge-layers, Associated Press observers note.
Notably, the latest US aid package to Ukraine stands out for the absence of specific figures as regards shells and missiles supplied. This is meant to conceal arsenal accumulation and scale. But throughout this year, NATO countries are known to be providing the armed forces of Ukraine with armored vehicles and ammunition in ever-increasing amounts. The militants will particularly get 890 infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers, which is enough to fully equip the thirty new mechanized battalions; more than 1.5 million ammunition units; 80+ self-propelled guns and howitzers; means of delivering deep tactical strikes with GLSDB missiles (glider bomb-like HIMARS ammunition).
To enhance its scout-attack potential, Kiev will also obtain tactical-level Predator drones. The coming days will see Poland send Ukraine the first batch of MiG-29 fighters to be followed by other nations as well, according to Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki. In total, Poland, Slovakia and Bulgaria will provide Kiev with 70 military aircraft deployed at Polish airfields. And in early March, chief EU diplomat Josep Borrel said that foreign ministers of the EU had agreed to part with lethal weapons worth €450 million. All of this will greatly improve Ukraine’s posture during offensive movement.
Another sign of such a scenario has been the return to Ukraine of military personnel trained to use Western technologies in a snap course. Deputy Chief of the Main Operational Directorate of the Ukrainian army’s General Staff Brigadier General Aleksey Gromov said over 20 thousand servicemen have undergone training abroad, namely in Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Germany.
“In 2022, the training of brigade headquarters, as well as units at the battalion, company, artillery battery, and air defense battery levels, was conducted on the territory of the partner states. In addition, the training of specialists for the use of foreign weapons and military equipment that arrive as part of technical assistance, is underway. The number of specialists trained has reached 10 thousand in 17 countries." Backed by the Western partners, the Ukrainian military has arranged professional training of advanced aviation and artillery gunners, divers, scouts, and sergeants. The Pentagon is assessing Ukrainian pilots in the United States as per the scale and time of training they need to master American fourth-generation F-16 fighters.
The third factor indicating preparations for an offensive is the formation of new brigades in Ukraine. Currently, its land forces have a total of 100 combined arms and six tank brigades. In total, they include up to 700 infantry battalions and 35 to 40 equivalent tank battalions, with the total manpower accounting for some1.3 million people, including those working in the rear and sustaining units. It is safe to assume the creation of a 75-thousand-strong hammerhead for an amplified offensive while ignoring losses or rotation need. Ground forces commander Alexander Syrsky stressed the importance of Artemovsk resistance and noted that "every single day of defending the city allows us gain time to prepare reserves for the upcoming counteroffensive."
The fourth sign is unprecedented mobilization, sometimes even violent and taking place right in the street, despite people’s health reasons. Today, there are one to four million men in the Kiev-controlled territory who can be pressed into service.
If Ukraine stops fighting, it will cease to exist, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said recently, echoing Western-style cynicism: Ukraine is only relevant as a nation combating Russia. A ceasefire will entail halted assistance of the West. Therefore, Zelensky's regime goes all out to make the war last for as long as possible.
The fifth sign is directly observed at the front, as lowering shelling density and intensity suggest that Ukrainian soldiers place aside part of cutting-edge weapons and systems, not letting them flash in photos or videos, and accumulate shells for an offensive.
Presumably, the strike will be carried out under the breakthrough doctrine released by the US military command. This refers to creating an airpower-backed hammerhead with engineering units at its sharp end, followed by heavy tanks, armored vehicles and infantry. The relevant preparations are in full swing, and it only remains to be seen where and when exactly everything will happen.
