© TASS

March 27 witnessed the two-week second round of elections of ruling Scottish National Party (SNP) leader end in Scotland. The final count of votes revealed the victory of Scottish Health Minister Humza Yousaf, 37, who won over 26,000 party member votes (52.1%). The runner-up was Finance Minister Kate Forbes (23,900 votes, or 47.9%). A total of 50,500 out of the 72,000 party members took part. Notably, SNP MPs alone were entitled to stand for election.

Now the Glasgow-born son of a Pakistani father and a Kenyan mother, Humza Yousaf — the first of non-Scottish descent — will run the Scottish government to replace Nicola Sturgeon, who has led the party and the regional government since 2014. She announced intention to quit as party leader on February 15 amid growing public discontent over priorities of the regional government, namely issues in the health and education systems, as well as gender reforms allowing teenagers make a transition starting 16 and making it easier for trans-people to obtain gender reassignment documents. Still, the central government in London did eventually kill the bill.

On March 29, Humza Yousaf will be sworn in at the Court of Session to officially assume the post of Scotland’s First Minister. His triumph is believed to have been largely facilitated by support with the local establishment, and his long-term management experience against other candidates. One might as well say that many Scottish voters opted for reliable pragmatism, especially given that Yousaf was regarded as successor to Sturgeon, despite his own campaign promises of a more open policy.

Significantly, the SNP’s key objective is secession from the UK. And yet, the odds are in favor of independence opponents, recent opinion polls expose. According to an exclusive YouGov survey for Sky News, only 46% of the Scots support the idea, while 54% would prefer to remain part of the union. Support is even lower when considering those who answered "DK/Ref" — 39% against 47%. The survey also showed that 52% of the region's population see Scotland part of the United Kingdom over the next decade at least.

Despite statistics, the SNP does not intend to change its stance on the key regional issue. In his victory speech, Yousaf said the "current generation" of Scots should bear witness to their country’s independence from Britain. "I was determined then, as I am now, as the 14th leader of this great party, that we will deliver independence for Scotland – together as a team. We will be the generation that delivers independence," he told the audience. He also intends to have Scotland in the EU, and in case of independence, the region should contemplate abandoning monarchy.

Apparently, the victory by an establishment candidate does not offer sweeping changes in official Edinburgh’s course. In particular, attempts to secede from the UK will probably be as modest as can be after previous failures by Hamza Yousaf's predecessor Nicola Sturgeon. By the way, she tacitly backed him in the election and already congratulated on the victory, saying she was proud of him and sure he would definitely establish himself as an "outstanding leader."

However, it is not entirely clear what future awaits the Yousaf-led party amid the recent scandals, primarily related to inaccurate data on the number of party members. Thus, in 2021, it accounted for a shade over 100,000 people, but has decreased by 30,000 over the last few years, although party bosses tried hard to conceal this from the media. Scandals in the SNP may affect its electoral prospects. Humza Yousaf’s primary test is assumed to be UK’s next general parliamentary election to be held no later than in January 2025. Earlier, Sturgeon said the SNP would consider its success or failure as an indicator of Scottish people’s need for independence.

So far, the latter have not been particularly optimistic about this. For instance, Nicola Sturgeon’s past lawsuits aimed to get the right to a new independence referendum have predictably failed in London. Many Scots tend to believe that difficult economic times require staying part of the UK, which pledges less than the EU, but still adequately facilitates the social sphere.

Anyway, from now on a Muslim will take the lead in Scotland's confrontation with the London government headed by Rishi Sunak, a Hindu. In this regard, it is hardly surprising that a Muslim has become separatist leader: everything is in the spirit of our time. However, confrontation between Edinburgh and London won’t naturally stop overnight, since freedom-loving Scots will keep fighting for their independence against the central authorities. After all, the latter are well aware that an independent Scotland entails willingness of Northern Ireland and even Wales to secede from the UK as well. England will be faced with a monumental challenge of staying afloat single-handedly.

Small wonder that America’s CNN refers to Hamza Yousaf’s main party leadership goal as destroying Scotland’s tricentennial union with England. Still, without charismatic and powerful Nicola Sturgeon the pace of UK’s collapse may slow down. It's no secret after all that Sturgeon’s resignation was driven, among other factors, by the lack of a coherent SNP strategy on ways to hold a new referendum.