© AP Photo/Mehr News Agency, Sajjad Safari/TASS

Top stories from the Russian press on Monday, April 3rd, prepared by TASS

The US seeks to maintain the New START Treaty; Armenia has no plans to arrest Russian President Putin on ICC warrant; and major OPEC oil producers agree to cut output alongside Russia. These stories topped Monday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

Izvestia: US seeking to preserve New START Treaty

The United States is committed to preserving the New START Treaty and continues to abide by all of its key provisions, with the exception of the transfer of data on the status and number of warheads, the US embassy in Russia told Izvestia. In turn, a key member of Russia’s Federation Council believes that, on the whole, negotiations between Moscow and Washington are possible, but that the US must demonstrate "common sense," Izvestia writes.

At the end of March, US Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy John Plumb said that, in response to a similar decision by Russia, Washington would no longer provide Moscow with key data on its strategic nuclear forces. The US embassy told Izvestia that, except for this countermeasure, the United States is fully complying with the New START Treaty, including its key restrictions.

The US embassy added that mutual compliance with the treaty strengthens the security of the US and its allies and partners, as well as Russia and the entire world. That is why the United States is working to preserve the treaty, the diplomatic mission added.

"Negotiations are still possible. Let's hope that common sense will prevail among those in Washington who determine the country's course of action," Grigory Karasin, chairman of the Federation Council international affairs committee, told Izvestia.

Nikolay Sokov, a leading researcher at the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation, thinks that the agenda of any future talks will include the issue of expanding the list of participants to include China, France and the United Kingdom.

Negotiations between Moscow and Washington on the future of the New START will take place sooner or later, despite the fact that the obstacles to this dialogue are "absolutely fundamental, and no one knows for certain how to overcome them," Kirill Koktysh, associate professor of political theory at Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO University), told Izvestia.

Vedomosti: Armenia has no plans to arrest Putin on ICC warrant

Armenia has taken note of Russia's concerns about Yerevan's accession to the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court (ICC), and does not intend to arrest Russian President Vladimir Putin, against whom the ICC issued an arrest warrant on March 17 on charges of the "illegal deportation of children" from Ukraine, according to Hakob Arshakyan, vice president of the National Assembly of Armenia. He emphasized that Yerevan's responsibilities stemming from joining the Rome Statute will not harm the country’s relations with Moscow. Armenia approved the Rome Statute in 1998, but has yet to ratify it, Vedomosti writes.

Although Yerevan's attempt to resolve the conflict through dialogue is admirable, the actual implementation of any such agreement may pose certain legal risks, Dmitry Labin, professor in the Department of International Law at Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO University), told Vedomosti.

According to the expert, in general, the court founded on the basis of the Rome Statute has yet to prove its worth. In comparison with national legislation, the function of the ICC is merely supplementary, as the cases it hears could easily be handled under the criminal code of any individual country. Moreover, the fact that the ICC is not recognized by a number of countries, including the United States, China and Russia, serves to prove that the initiative for creating this institution has not been successfully carried out, Labin concluded.

The problem of the Rome Statute is just another irritant in contacts between Moscow and Yerevan and will not lead to any collapse of their relations, head of the Section for the Caucasus at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Vadim Mukhanov, told the newspaper. Armenia's motivation for ratifying the Rome Statute is understandable; the Armenian government has long urged various foreign institutions to condemn Azerbaijan's actions. At the same time, however, its decision to raise the issue of the ICC at this juncture, against the backdrop of complications in relations with Russia, is cause for concern.

Kommersant: Key OPEC countries decide to cut oil output together with Russia

Saudi Arabia and other major Arab oil producers, including the UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait, have unexpectedly chosen to support Russia's efforts by unilaterally cutting output by 1 mln barrels per day (bpd) starting from May until the end of the year, while Russia will extend its 500,000 bpd cut. This step is referred to as a preventive strategy by OPEC+ countries aimed at stabilizing the market. Analysts told Kommersant that they expect oil prices to rise in the short term, while Western experts point to continued cooperation within OPEC+ and increased pressure on Western central banks due to potential inflationary pressures.

The news surprised the market because, despite the fact that the next meeting of the OPEC+ monitoring committee is set for April 3, no one anticipated changes in production quotas. Western experts predict that tensions between the United States and Saudi Arabia could increase as rising oil prices push inflation higher, making it even more difficult for the US Federal Reserve to strike a balance between raising interest rates and maintaining financial and economic stability. Saudi Arabia's actions imply the continuation of practical cooperation between Russia and the OPEC countries, Kommersant writes. The largest OPEC members will, for all intents and purposes, be joining Russia in its oil output cuts starting from May.

Experts disagree on the exact impact of the cut on oil prices. According to Anton Usov of the Kept audit and advisory firm (formerly KPMG), this move will only support prices at their current level in the medium term, rather than contribute to significant growth. The expert says a cut of more than 10% in global supplies could have a major impact on prices. At the same time, he agrees that OPEC+ oil production cuts should reduce the discount on Russian Urals oil to Brent, thereby increasing Russian budget revenues.

Dan Pickering, CEO of Pickering Energy Partners, told Reuters that he believes the impact on oil prices will be "significant" and that prices will rise by $10 per barrel.

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Brussels and Beijing seek common approach to Ukraine

During a meeting with Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, Chinese President Xi Jinping urged Europe to expand mutually beneficial cooperation while remaining autonomous, that is, not succumbing to US pressure. For its part, the EU is keen to expand economic ties with China, but given Washington's stance, it is forced to insist that China not support Russia. Although French President Emmanuel Macron will travel to China after Sanchez, an agreement between the parties on Ukraine is unlikely, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.

The Chinese media are overwhelmingly positive about Sanchez's tour and Macron's upcoming visit to Beijing together with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Both sides value the healthy development of bilateral relations. Sanchez's tour, as well as the upcoming visits of other European leaders, shows that China wants to work closely with Europe. However, there is little chance of reaching an agreement on Ukraine. According to Reuters, Sanchez urged Xi to speak with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky and hear firsthand his peace formula. But that proposal calls for Ukraine to return to its 1991 borders, which Russia considers unacceptable.

"The most important thing in relations between China and the EU is trade and economic ties. Neither side is engaged in the conflict in Ukraine. Maybe they'll find common ground. However, it is unlikely to have any impact. After all, Europe has little sway in Ukraine, and China cannot publicly counsel Russia. As a result, the upcoming meetings in Beijing will produce no results," Alexander Lukin, scientific director of the Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute of China and Modern Asia, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta.

Kommersant: Exports of Russian gas to EU declining

Gas supplies by Gazprom to EU countries via Ukraine have begun to decline. The probable reason for the decrease in gas flows is that Gazprom's current contract prices, based on March rates, exceed spot gas prices in the European market. At the same time, in early April, spot gas prices began to rise on expectations that colder spring weather in Europe would prolong the heating season and significantly reduce wind power generation, Kommersant writes.

For the first two days of April, the volume of Russian gas supplies passing through Ukraine dropped by nearly 9%. According to Gazprom, the application for pumping Russian gas to Europe through Ukraine through the Sudzha station on April 2 dropped to 37.6 mln cubic meters per day. In March, the average daily pumping volume via this channel to Europe was 41.25 mln cubic meters, with the total volume of supplies at 1.28 bln cubic meters.

The decrease in supplies is most likely due to Gazprom's gas becoming less economically appealing to European buyers; the formula for the price of Russian gas supplies under long-term contracts is tied to the average price of the previous month or quarter.

According to Sergey Kondratiev at the Institute of Energy and Finance, the decline in EU-bound supplies is primarily due to low demand for natural gas as a result of high wind power generation and relatively warm weather in Eastern Europe. "As a result, we are seeing a slight decrease in transit through Ukraine (by 1-2 mln cubic meters per day) and the TurkStream (by 3-4 mln cubic meters). The price factor also matters: the price of natural gas under Gazprom's long-term contracts is now $20-30 per 1,000 cubic meters higher than current TTF spot rates," he added.