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Top stories from the Russian press on Wednesday, April 5th, prepared by TASS

Finland has officially become a NATO member; Belarus is ready to host Russian nuclear weapons; and Moscow continues efforts to reconcile Ankara and Damascus. These stories topped Wednesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

Media: Finland officially becomes NATO member

Finland has officially become NATO’s 31st member state. The move predictably provoked a negative reaction from Moscow, which warned about the need to take military and other retaliatory measures to curb threats to national security, Izvestia writes.

"The development trend of the military and political situation in Europe includes a rapid military build-up on the part of the US and NATO, which is clearly directed against Russia," a Russian diplomatic source noted.

Helsinki’s move to join NATO will negatively affect Russian-Finnish relations, which have cooled considerably in the past year, said analyst Nikita Lipunov from the Institute for International Studies at Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO University). However, it is premature to discuss Russia’s retaliatory measures as they will be directly contingent upon the neighboring Nordic country’s further integration into the bloc. The Finns are not interested in an escalation and, thus, will exercise caution, the analyst pointed out.

"As far as I understand, we are resurrecting the Leningrad Military District. It will clearly encompass two theaters of potential combat operations, that is, Estonia and Finland. New military bases will be established along the border, which is going to be strengthened. The Baltic Fleet and its naval infantry units will be beefed up. As soon as Finland celebrates its NATO membership, it will become a target for our nuclear carriers based on route maps for our nuclear warheads," military expert Vladislav Shurygin maintained.

"The thing to keep in mind is that Finland has the largest artillery capability in Western Europe," military expert retired Colonel Vladimir Popov told Nezavisimaya Gazeta. "In particular, Finland’s defense forces are equipped with M270 multiple launch rocket systems capable of firing ATACMS ballistic missiles at a distance of up to 300 kilometers. This means that these rockets can reach St. Petersburg, Murmansk and Severomosk, where major military and strategic headquarters (command posts) of the Russian Armed Forces are stationed," he noted. In addition, Finland, like other NATO countries, is providing significant military assistance to Ukraine, the expert stressed.

Kommersant: Belarus ready to accept nuclear gift

Russian Foreign Intelligence Service Director Sergey Naryshkin highlighted the complete trust underlying relations between Russian and Belarusian intelligence services while on a visit to Minsk. Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, in turn, announced that Belarus already had the ability to carry out nuclear strikes. The two countries' presidents, Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko, will continue to discuss threats and ways to neutralize them at a meeting of the Supreme State Council of the Union State slated for April 5-6, Kommersant writes.

Director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics Vasily Kashin points out that Belarus received Iskander missile systems from Russia back in 2022. "Lukashenko announced last December that they had been put on combat duty," the expert noted.

"This time, Shoigu highlighted the fact that Belarus had not received the export version of Iskander systems, which have a reduced range and aren’t capable of delivering nuclear weapons, but the Iskander-M systems that can deliver nuclear warheads," Kashin noted. The analyst pointed to the existing practice that the United States calls "nuclear sharing," when the US establishes a nuclear weapons storage facility in an ally country but continues to control these weapons. "They [the Americans] maintain and guard them but when the time comes, the weapons are released for installation on delivery systems owned by the ally. As a result, formally, there are no American systems in the country but, in practical terms, there are," the expert said.

"Last year, we made a decision to re-equip aircraft, the Iskander systems were handed over and now, plans have been announced to create a storage facility. Perhaps, this means that the entire infrastructure will be prepared, and it’s going to be significant. It includes a protected underground facility where the required temperature is maintained and a security system is in place," Kashin specified.

According to the expert, Moscow has taken a step but has stopped just before crossing the line, and will take further action depending on the situation, that is, on whether there is a wave of tensions and pressure.

Izvestia: Will Moscow succeed in reconciling Ankara, Damascus?

Turkey is set for a rapprochement with Syria, but two issues currently impede closer communication between Ankara and Damascus, including the situation in Idlib and the withdrawal of Turkish troops from northern Syria, said experts interviewed by Izvestia. The talks between Russian, Turkish, Syrian and Iranian foreign ministry officials that took place in Moscow on April 3-4 made it clear that the countries share the same positions on many issues. The meeting, which involved deputy foreign ministers, is supposed to precede negotiations between the top diplomats of Syria and Turkey and a meeting of the two countries’ presidents. However, it is unlikely to happen before Turkey’s upcoming elections.

Turkey expert Yashar Niyazbayev points out that the rapprochement process between Turkey and Syria continues based on Russia’s mediation efforts. According to him, Turkey has an understanding that the move will allow it to solve two problems, which concern refugees and Kurdish separatism in northern Syria, where the People's Defense Units (YPG) are active. The parties have a sincere wish to improve relations and a search for compromise is underway.

Turkish political scientist Onur Sinan Guzaltan emphasizes that the Astana platform bringing together Turkey, Iran and Russia has been in place since 2015, and Syria is also a de facto player in the process. In other words, Turkey and Syria have already held talks at various levels and now the process has become more open, and is actually entering its final stage.

Turkish political scientist Kerim Has is confident that, in principle, full reconciliation between Ankara and Damascus is possible, but it is difficult to predict at this point how the diplomatic process will end. It is premature to say that Turkey and Syria will be able to build ties and resolve all key problems in bilateral and regional relations soon. However, in any case, the diplomatic process will continue, the expert said. If the opposition candidate wins Turkey’s presidential election in May, Ankara and Damascus may reach a full reconciliation. It is hard to imagine that incumbent Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan would halt all military support for various armed groups in northern Syria and withdraw troops in the near future. These are Syria’s key demands, which would be more difficult for Erdogan to fulfill than they would be for the opposition candidate.

Vedomosti: Russia’s oil product exports reached all-time high in March

Russian oil companies increased the maritime export of oil products by 31.2% to 3.13 mln barrels per day (bpd) in March 2023 versus March of last year, Vedomosti writes, citing Kpler data. The March figure turned out to be an all-time high, with the previous peak recorded in February 2022 at 3.1 mln bpd.

After sanctions were imposed on Russia in 2022 over its special military operation in Ukraine, Russian companies were forced to redirect oil and oil product exports from EU countries, the United Kingdom and the United States. As a result, India and China emerged as major oil buyers. Managing Expert at PSB Center for Expertise and Analysis Ekaterina Krylova notes that efforts to find new markets played an important role in the growth of exports.

In February 2023, the European Commission authorized third countries to export Russian oil products to the EU after processing them or mixing with oil from other counties. The record-high export volumes indicate that Russian refiners and traders are finding alternate routes, while gray schemes have probably expanded, allowing Russian exports to reach Europe by alternate routes, perhaps after being mixed with other countries' products, BCS World of Investment Senior Analyst Ronald Smith said.

According to Krylova’s estimates, exports of oil products may fall to 2.6-2.7 mln bpd in April and May due to a production cut (based on the OPEC+ decision) and repair work at oil refineries. Smith concurs that the scheduled spring technical maintenance period at oil refineries should lead to an export slowdown. However, in his words, it is becoming increasingly clear that Russia has resolved the most pressing of the logistics challenges it faced stemming from the EU embargo, at least for the time being.

Izvestia: Yuan knocks dollar out of Russian market

The US dollar is no longer the most traded foreign currency in Russia, which is a direct consequence of the anti-Russian sanctions, Izvestia writes, citing Bloomberg analysts. In February 2023, the Chinese yuan for the first time outstripped the dollar in terms of monthly trading volume on the Moscow Exchange (MOEX).

It is likely that the Chinese currency will also overtake the combined total trading volumes of the dollar and the euro before the year-end, Artyom Tuzov, executive director of the capital markets department at Iva Partners, said. "The more Russian banks are sanctioned by the European Union and the United States, the more transactions will involve the yuan instead of the dollar and the euro. That said, an increase in the yuan’s role in the Russian economy became inevitable the minute the dollar and euro accounts of a number of big Russian banks were blocked in February 2022," the expert explained.

The yuan’s growing share in the Russian market is predictable as it stems from two factors that will persist for now, Andrey Stolyarov, associate professor in the department of financial market infrastructure at the Higher School of Economics, maintained. These include growing trade with China and the toxicity of traditional foreign currencies due to the sanctions on Russia.

The use of the yuan is indeed increasing along with China’s role as Russia’s main trading partner, Sergey Khestanov, associate professor at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), emphasized. In his view, the yuan is the most likely alternative to the dollar for use inside Russia. However, the expert does not preclude the possibility that the currencies of other friendly countries will serve as alternatives in certain regions of the country. Although the yuan is still something exotic for people in the European part of Russia, in the near future a forex market for the yuan will develop just as it did for the dollar and the euro in the past, the expert said.