© Gonzalo Fuentes/Pool Photo via AP/TASS

Top stories from the Russian press on Thursday, April 6th, prepared by TASS

French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen arrive in China to discuss economic ties and Ukraine; Donald Trump doggedly pursues presidential aspirations despite potentially facing up to 136 years in prison; and Palestine may face further escalation with Israel after the latter’s attack on Jerusalem’s Al-Aqsa Mosque. These stories topped Thursday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: European leaders to talk trade, Ukraine on China visit

French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen have arrived in China. The visitors hope to strengthen ties with a major economic partner and influence Beijing's stance on Ukraine. Macron discussed the latter issue with US President Joe Biden before boarding his flight east. However, Paris does not wish to sacrifice its interests for the sake of solidarity with Washington and is now preparing a deal to sell a new batch of Airbus planes to China, despite the deterioration in US-China relations. Experts noted that Macron was compelled to travel with von der Leyen because of criticism aimed at German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who had previously visited China alone, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.

For Macron, who is facing domestic protests over pension reform, it is crucial to return with something to show off, such as some major deals between Chinese and French businesses. However, Macron and von der Leyen stressed that their goal, in addition to trade, was to persuade China to influence Russia's position on Ukraine, or to prevent Beijing from providing direct assistance to Moscow. This will inevitably bring up the issue of China’s 12-point peace plan, which the West has already rejected.

"It is too early to predict the outcome of the European leaders' visit to China. But it is obvious that Europe wants to improve economic relations with China, unlike the United States, which seems ready to tolerate a certain degree of deterioration in trade and economic ties with China for the sake of political considerations," Alexander Lukin, scientific director of the Institute of China and Modern Asia at the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta. "And as for Ukraine, the visitors want to help find peace, but only under the conditions imposed by the West. The Europeans can achieve some success on the first issue if they dare to deviate from the US position. But they are unlikely to achieve anything on Ukraine," he cautioned.

Kommersant: Trump may get 136 years in jail or head nation ‘going to hell in a handbasket’

Former US President Donald Trump, the defendant in a criminal case that is unprecedented for the United States, spoke at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida after returning from his court appearance in New York. His speech was a dead ringer for the annual State of the Union address given by US presidents, except that the former chief executive gave his message a contrarian twist. Trump’s main conclusions are that the nation is "going to hell," that China and Russia are gaining power, and that the world is "on the verge of nuclear war." Trump, who faces up to 136 years behind bars, is determined to prove his innocence and still be reelected to lead the country in 2024, with the support of followers who see his trial as politically motivated, Kommersant writes.

The second pre-trial court hearing is slated for December 4 in New York, with the trial set to commence in January of next year. That is, the main part of the ex-president's trial will begin in the year of the election of the 47th president of the United States, just when the primary election season kicks off, in which Republicans and Democrats must choose candidates for their respective parties’ nominations for the future head of state.

"Under the American legal system, a US citizen under investigation or even after being sentenced to criminal punishment is not barred from participating in presidential elections. This means that Donald Trump's trial and his probable participation in the 2024 presidential election could occur simultaneously," Alexander Domrin, a lawyer and visiting professor at the University of Pennsylvania, told Kommersant.

According to the expert, the only threat to Donald Trump's presidential ambitions is an attempt to use the 14th Amendment to the United States Constitution against him. Ratified in 1868, the 14th Amendment makes it illegal for an individual who has incited mutiny or insurrection to hold elected office.

"So far, there is no such item among the 34 charges that have been filed against Trump. However, if the ex-president is accused of this by January 2024, he would not be able to participate in the elections," the analyst added.

Izvestia: Will clashes over Jerusalem holy site trigger missile launches?

Palestine is urging the international community to condemn Israel's armed attack on the Al-Aqsa Mosque and sees no way to negotiate with Israel, Palestinian Ambassador to Russia Abdel Hafiz Nofal told Izvestia. The Israeli military stormed the mosque during the holy month of Ramadan and detained more than 350 Palestinians. In response to the attack on the holy site, nine rockets were fired from Gaza, to which Israel responded with a reciprocal shelling of Gaza. The Palestinian ambassador told the newspaper that he believes the situation will worsen in the coming days if Israel continues its attacks on Al-Aqsa, which he calls a "red line" for Muslims worldwide.

The situation in Jerusalem has been difficult since the first days of Ramadan, but it has deteriorated to a dangerous level since the evening of April 4, which could lead to a new wave of escalation. As the ambassador pointed out, the scenario could lead to a regional religious war, which would be "a disaster."

"However, it is crucial to understand that Al-Aqsa is a red line for Muslims around the world," the ambassador added, clarifying that there have been no negotiations between Israel and Palestine aimed at resolving the issue.

Netanyahu's former adviser and prominent columnist for the Israel Hayom newspaper, Ariel Bulshtein, told Izvestia that Hamas was the initiator of the escalation. He also stressed that Israel is "always ready to discuss options and ways to achieve, if not a peaceful solution, then at least a de-escalation of the situation."

According to Sergey Melkonyan, a research fellow at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the Institute of Applied Political Research (APRI), an escalation between Palestine and Israel is possible at any time. "The current far-right composition of the Israeli government raises the stakes and the probability of a large-scale response from the Jewish state in the event of missile attacks on its territory," he said.

Vedomosti: Poland leverages Ukrainian grain issue in political play to rally neighbors

Polish Agriculture Minister Henryk Kowalczyk has resigned over the abundance of cheap Ukrainian grain in EU countries. Kowalczyk announced his resignation on April 5, citing the European Commission's (EC) recent move to extend duty-free imports of Ukrainian grain into the EU until June 2024. Polish farmers, unhappy with the EC and losing money, have called for import duties on Ukrainian grain, but Kowalczyk believes this is not feasible, Vedomosti writes.

The duty-free import of large quantities of Ukrainian grain into Central European countries is causing significant problems for their governments, as the products of local farmers cannot compete with Ukrainian producers in terms of price.

Polish authorities tried to resolve the Ukrainian grain problem back in February. The governments of Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia issued a joint report urging Brussels to react to the situation. Among other things, the governments urged the EC to reconsider reimposing duties on Ukrainian grain imports.

Since Ukraine supplies feed grain to the EU, the negative impact of Ukrainian exports on the Polish economy is exaggerated, Senior Researcher at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky told Vedomosti. However, the problem of Ukrainian grain has a political component. According to the expert, Poland's active demands for the return of customs duties are aimed at rallying Central and Eastern European countries behind them. As a result, the dispute over Ukrainian grain should be seen as part of Poland's regional policy, as the country seeks to strengthen its position within the EU, the expert added.

Izvestia: Russian ruble continues downward trend in 2023

The exchange rate of the Russian ruble [against major foreign currencies] has continued to fall in the first several months of 2023; from January 1 to April 5, the dollar gained more than 10% against the ruble, while the yuan rose almost 13% against the ruble, and the euro posted a 16% gain against Russia’s national currency. It is particularly surprising that the Russian currency is falling in the face of the Bank of Russia's efforts since February to sell foreign currency. Russian analysts told Izvestia that they do not expect the ruble's decline to continue for much longer.

"The ruble is falling while oil prices rose by 7% in response to the OPEC+ decision to cut output by 1.657 mln barrels per day (bpd). This is happening because market participants seem to prefer buying foreign currency in anticipation of a possible escalation of the Ukrainian conflict," Finam expert Andrey Maslov told the newspaper. "We expect the Russian economy and commodity exporters to continue adjusting to external sanctions for several more months," he added, noting that the dollar could reach 72-80 rubles, with a rate of 72-85 rubles by the year-end.

Gazprombank economist Pavel Biryukov believes that other factors are contributing to the weakness of the ruble, "including the outflow of funds by foreign investors in the process of selling assets. Ongoing concerns about external risks continue to weigh on the ruble. We expect it to recover in the coming weeks."

"In the absence of a clear force majeure, the range of exchange rate fluctuations is likely to remain primarily in the range of 75-80 rubles per dollar in the next few months," TeleTrade expert Vladimir Kovalev told the newspaper.

At the same time, business strategist Alexander Bakhtin of BCS World of Investments believes that "the dollar-ruble pair will stabilize in April in the range of 76-77, while the euro[-ruble pair will be] in the range of 83-84, and the yuan[-ruble forex rate will be] in the range of 10.9-11."