© BelTA/TASS
Top stories from the Russian press on Tuesday, April 11th, prepared by TASS
US intelligence leaks raise the classic question of "cui bono"? Or, who benefits from them?; Europe is seeking a safe space between the US and China; and Belarus requests more robust security guarantees from Moscow. These stories topped Tuesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Izvestia: Who benefits from US intelligence leaks?
A number of US Department of Defense (DOD), CIA and National Security Agency (NSA) documents have recently been posted on the Internet, which purportedly contain classified information about plans for Ukraine’s upcoming counteroffensive. Additionally, there was another leak pertaining to US spying on foreign leaders. These events give rise to questions about what the leakers may hope to achieve and what impact the leaks may have, Izvestia writes.
"Such leaks serve political and situational purposes. Given that the US is currently going through an acute phase of political turmoil, it could well be assumed that these documents were made public to reduce the United States’ involvement in the Ukrainian conflict," Director of the Franklin D. Roosevelt Foundation for United States Studies Yury Rogulev pointed out.
These developments represent the first such large-scale leaks to occur since the start of Russia’s special military operation. However, the leaked information does not spell out in any detail the Ukrainian armed forces’ plans for a counteroffensive. Moreover, a significant part of the information contained in papers marked "top secret" is accompanied by a note that the data came from open sources, which puts the information’s validity into question.
As for data about US intelligence conducting surveillance on the leaders of allied countries, there is nothing sensational about such disclosures. US history is full of examples where such leaks were used to achieve domestic political aims, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for US and Canadian Studies Vladimir Vasilyev notes. "The same happened in the US during the Vietnam War in the late 1960s. Back then, the New York Times published the Pentagon Papers, leaked by Daniel Ellsberg, which discredited the Washington ‘war party.’ Today, the leaks highlight the activities of the anti-war opposition inside the Pentagon and the intel community amid a highly volatile domestic political confrontation in the US. The Biden administration is clearly seeking to extend the Ukraine story to 2024, which is why it has been rejecting peace talks," the expert explained.
Vedomosti: Europe searching for safe space between US and China
French President Emmanuel Macron’s remarks about his unwillingness to get involved in others’ conflicts drew a negative reaction from the US establishment but won praise from Beijing. After returning from a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, the French leader emphasized that the Europeans were not interested in forcing a solution to the issue of Taiwan and highlighted the need for Europe to gain "strategic autonomy," Vedomosti writes.
Some themes reminiscent of Charles de Gaulle can be heard in Macron’s statements as far as relations with the US go, which include in particular his remark about "strategic autonomy" and the refusal to be drawn into more conflicts at the urging of the United States. Here, one can recall the Cold War and the 2003 invasion of Iraq, said Ivan Timofeev, head of the sector for European political studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations. In reality, however, no "anti-Atlanticist rebellion" is in the works, the expert stressed.
Director of the Franklin D. Roosevelt Foundation for United States Studies Yury Rogulev is of the same opinion. He points out that France actually shapes its foreign policy course closely in line with that of Washington, as can be seen from Paris’ behavior towards the Ukrainian crisis and its participation in weapons supplies to Kiev. Macron is only simulating opposition, Rogulev noted. However, in terms of trade, European economies depend on China more than on the US, on whom they depend politically, the expert emphasized.
The escalation of US-China tensions over Taiwan has a negative effect first and foremost on the EU. This is clear to Macron, which is why he took the European captains of industry to China with him, but only Airbus managed to sign contracts, worth 300 bln euros, Rogulev added.
Paris keeps maneuvering and continues to adjust its Europe policy and its place in the conflict between Beijing and Washington on the Taiwan issue in order to find the safest position, Timofeev concluded.
Vedomosti: Belarus asks Russia for security guarantees
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has officially requested that Russia expand its security guarantees against a foreign attack. He described the desired level of security by saying that, "Russia will defend the republic [of Belarus] like its own territory in case of aggression." The initiative was put forward at Lukashenko’s meeting with Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, Vedomosti notes.
The news that Moscow and Minsk were working on a security concept within the framework of the Russia-Belarus Union State came after the Supreme State Council meeting on April 6. The parties already have mutual obligations as members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), and last month they agreed that tactical nuclear weapons would be deployed to Belarus. The move came as a response to the United Kingdom’s decision to provide depleted uranium munitions to Ukraine.
Talks between Lukashenko and Shoigu should be viewed as substantive consultations on security guarantees, State Academic University for the Humanities Vice Rector Vyacheslav Sutyrin said. According to him, the CSTO obligations are those suitable for a peacetime treaty structure and thus do not fully reflect the current military and political situation. Belarus borders NATO countries where a military buildup is underway, and so Minsk also faces risks from the North Atlantic Alliance’s actual proxy war against Russia. It seems that Minsk felt the need for stronger guarantees to be able to send a signal to its western neighbors because the CSTO commitments do not specify the type of military assistance that allies are obligated to provide to the member country subject to aggression, the expert concluded.
The security guarantees may include some provisions that the Collective Security Treaty does not offer, Senior Researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky pointed out. Consultations on approving such guarantees may well cover the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons to Belarus. Additionally, it would be right for Russia to link these new guarantees to increasing its military presence for the protection of nuclear arms. The thing is that the issue of troops guarding nuclear weapons can even be more important than the weapons themselves, the expert added.
Media: What’s the rationale for Biden’s visit to Great Britain?
US President Joe Biden will visit the United Kingdom and Ireland on April 11-14. Experts interviewed by Izvestia believe that international issues will remain in the background, but the leaders will still touch upon Ukraine.
This time, Biden is not going to London but to Belfast, the capital of Northern Ireland, where he will be welcomed by British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. Northern Ireland, which left the EU as part of the United Kingdom, was initially supposed to remain a member of the EU Customs Union but bureaucratic difficulties complicated supplies of many goods to the region, and the US has been involved in efforts to resolve the issue, said Pavel Sharikov, researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Europe. "Brexit created a lot of problems, namely the need to make agreements with the Europeans, the UK and Ireland. All of this was negatively affecting trade and the movement of goods. Biden’s visit is aimed at scoring a win for the United States," the analyst noted.
Experts concede that many issues will be discussed behind closed doors during the visit, particularly those concerning Ukraine. "The issue of Ukraine always looms large over meetings between Western leaders. It’s always there one way or another," Sergey Shein of the Higher School of Economics pointed out.
Dean of the World Politics Department at Moscow State University Andrey Sidorov, in turn, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that the future of Europe amid the conflict in Ukraine would most likely top the agenda of the Belfast talks. "On the whole, the operation to deter Russia is not going as smoothly as planned, given that sanctions haven’t destroyed the Russian economy. China will also be discussed. An alliance has been created that brings together the US, the UK and Australia, but the question is what to do next and how to implement the ‘Global Britain’ strategy. It would be desirable for the benefit of the alliance that the UK find a viable approach to [working with] India’s elites, who are currently unwilling to spoil relations with Russia and China," the expert noted.
Kommersant: Gold investment on the rise in Russia despite global trend
International investors have started to lose interest in gold amid efforts to curb the financial crisis in the US and strong data on inflation, which have already pushed gold prices below $2,000 per ounce. However, investors in the Russian market have retained an interest in gold as a "safe harbor" asset for hedging against a depreciating ruble, Kommersant notes.
According to Bloomberg, the assets of exchange-traded funds (ETF) investing in gold exceeded 2,900 metric tons last week, renewing the high of late January. The largest increase was recorded in mid-March but investor interest in gold gradually decreased in the following weeks. A drop in investor concerns about the crisis in the US financial sector caused by emergency support measures contributed to the decline in demand for gold.
In the meantime, interest in gold has persisted in the Russian market. According to InvestFunds, in March private investors placed about 600 mln rubles ($7.3 mln) in mutual funds geared toward investing in gold, or nearly twice as much as the month before.
This is being facilitated by the weakening of the Russian currency, which increases Russians’ interest in protective tools such as gold. Alfa Capital Portfolio Manager Dmitry Skryabin says that the sharp depreciation of the ruble raises questions about how to save money, and will strengthen domestic demand for gold. All the more so since dollar gold prices may start rising again in the near future.
"The situation in the US banking system can hardly be described as positive. Another wave of financial institution failures is quite possible," PSB Chief Analyst Alexey Golovinov noted.
