© Daniel Ceng Shou-Yi/ZUMA Press Wire/TASS

In mid-May, Taiwan's armed forces are about to start large-scale military drills along with its foreign partners to work out moves against a possible invasion by mainland China. The island names no specific dates but tends to believe the People’s Liberation Army may arrive in 2027, because this very year has been named by Chinese President Xi Jinping for military modernization accomplishment.

Notably, the Han Kyung exercises have been held in Taiwan since 1984, though this time it will hardly be a routine event. The island authorities call it a move in response to PLA maneuvers next to the island underway since last year’s visit by then House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taipei. As stated by Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense (MND), the upcoming drills aim to work out real-case intervention scenarios involving mainland China. In particular, the planning phase will last from May 15 to 19, with combat operations set for July 24 to 28. A statement to this effect came from Major General Lin Weihong, who is in charge of international relations at MND.

Apart from the armed forces of Taiwan, the maneuvers will feature those of the Five Eyes intelligence alliance comprising Australia, Great Britain, Canada, New Zealand and the United States. In the process, the main thing will be testing the ability of Taipei’s army to maintain posture in case of a full-scale attack, and conduct "sea interceptions" of PLA ships. The drills will also include the use of civilian airports, the dispersal of military aircraft and subsequent unification of naval, air and ground units for a retaliatory strike.

The island's intelligence says all of this helps Taipei "understand the motives" of Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Beijing still advocates a diplomatic solution to the rebellious island’s separatism issue. But Taiwan is sure this course may change. "The Chinese president doesn’t allow any kind of different voice in the Chinese political system," Director general of Taiwan's National Security Bureau Tsai Ming-yen told Bloomberg. In his opinion, this means that "the risk of making a wrong decision will become much higher." Taipei needs to work with other partners now: "We do share some information with our international friends. They also share information with us. So, we do have a kind of cooperation with our international friends on China’s military movements."

The spy chief did not disclose contingency plan details but noted that the work is aimed to prevent any conflict. Not so long ago, Taiwan became known to acquire 400 anti-ship missiles from the United States. In addition, Taipei has closed the purchase of F-16 aircraft from Washington, even though the Americans are even reluctant to sell them to their NATO partner Turkey. Besides, December last year saw the Taiwanese authorities extend its mandatory military service requirement from four months to one year.

Despite certain optimism among the military and intelligence, Taiwanese diplomats admit that the island has found itself in the cross-hairs. Thus, in an interview with Sky News Australia in late April, Taiwan's Foreign Minister Joseph Wu said the self-proclaimed republic should be more reliant on its own forces in case of a conflict with China. "A lot of people are debating strategic ambiguity or strategic clarity, but to us, we know our own responsibility. Taiwan has to defend itself, the people have to defend Taiwan … and we are not asking other countries to fight for Taiwan," the minister added.

Yes, there are prominent external players on Taipei's side, but they are hardly going to directly interfere in a potential conflict between Taiwan and China. For instance, US Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns said earlier that Washington was interested in a peaceful Taiwan settlement, although Washington "can provide defensive weapons so that the Taiwanese authorities have proper protection." And Secretary General of the North Atlantic Alliance Jens Stoltenberg ruled out the bloc’s engagement in a conflict over Taiwan, saying that "NATO will remain an alliance of North America and Europe, it will not become a global alliance with members from Asia, and our collective security guarantee applies for NATO territory."

In turn, Australian Defense Minister Richard Morales noted back in March that his country had not made any promises to support the United States in any future conflict over Taiwan. Rumors about such guarantees appeared following the deal to acquire American nuclear submarines by Canberra within AUKUS (Australia, Great Britain, USA). Apparently, neither the United States nor Australia intend to get directly involved in a possible armed conflict between Taiwan and China. And Taipei apprehends the ambiguity of statements from its foreign partners perfectly well. Therefore, according to diplomat Joseph Wu, Taiwan is now working to maintain the status quo without entering a hot stage of conflict with Beijing.

An interesting thing is that the Five Eyes intelligence alliance does help Taiwan but the US CIA is also acting against Taipei, engaged in monitoring and wiretapping Taiwan's political elites for many years, with archives compiled even for retired politicians. Some analysts tend to believe that the US special services seek to initiate a "color revolution" on the island prior to its 2024 elections.

By the way, the Chinese National Computer Network Emergency Response Technical Team and the company 360, which deals with Internet security, earlier released a report claiming that the CIA had masterminded a great many hacker attacks and "color revolutions" across the globe. Among those report authors name Taiwan’s Sunflower Student Movement.

Hedge between keeps friendship green, as the saying goes.