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Top stories from the Russian press on Monday, May 15th, prepared by TASS

Turkey’s presidential election to go to second round as incumbent Erdogan falls short of 50% by a hair; Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky arrived in Germany to plea for yet more armaments; and Brussels to get tough on those countries that it alleges are helping Russia skirt sanctions. These stories topped Monday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

Izvestia: Turkey heads for round two in presidential election, but an Erdogan win expected

The first round in Turkey’s presidential election took place on May 14, with the incumbent leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, receiving just under 50% of the vote. Thus, the country will hold a second round on May 28, in which Erdogan will face off in a one-on-one match with opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who garnered approximately 44% of the first round vote. However, analysts are still expecting the sitting president to pull off a victory and think the opposition may stage protests should he do so, Izvestia writes.

This election bears huge significance for Turkish politics given that Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (known as the AK Party in Turkish) have been in power for the past 21 years. Should it win, the opposition would look upon knocking power out of the longstanding grip of Erdogan and his AK Party as its most important political achievement, Gokhan Cinkara, Turkish political scientist and associate professor at Necmettin Erbakan University, told Izvestia.

According to Amur Gadzhiev, research fellow at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Middle Eastern Studies, however, Erdogan will win in the second round. Provocations, in his opinion, may be expected from the Kilicdaroglu camp in this turn of events. The expert is confident, however, that such moves would not yield any significant results.

"Of course, there will be protests. But they will not be substantial, and they will not be able to spark a color revolution," he added.

If Erdogan wins the presidential election in the second round, by law it would be his final presidential term. "In his final term, he will lay the groundwork [for the future] and wrap up all of the ambitious projects that have been ongoing [under his presidency] over the past few years, from breakthroughs in the nuclear power industry to the construction of [Turkey’s] own aircraft carrier, and milestone infrastructure projects, including those being carried out with Russian support," Gadzhiev believes.

Kommersant: Scholz talks Russia-Ukraine peace after pledging largest arms package to date

After a brief pause, Kiev has been attempting to put the question of supplying the Ukrainian armed forces with Western combat aircraft back at the top of the agenda. Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, who arrived in Germany for his first visit since February 24, 2022, announced his intention to form a "fighter coalition" modeled after the "tank coalition" in which Berlin played a leading role. And, while German Chancellor Olaf Scholz responded that Germany had already given Ukraine quite a lot, Kiev is still counting on Berlin playing a special role in its allies arriving at a positive decision to expand the range of military support, Kommersant writes. However, some in Berlin were also talking about peace during Zelensky’s visit, but, apparently, only in the long-term outlook.

The nature of Germany’s aid to Ukraine has undergone significant change over the year and three months of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. If there were initial disagreements between Kiev and Berlin, owing mostly to Germany’s cautious stance on the question of military supplies to Ukraine, by the time the Ukrainian leader stepped on German soil, Germany had become one of its most important allies, according to Kommersant.

On the day of the visit, Berlin unveiled its largest military aid package for Kiev to date, worth 2.7 bln euro, including artillery systems and ammunition, air defense systems, 30 Leopard 1A5 tanks, 20 Marder infantry combat vehicles, and over 100 armored fighting vehicles. At the same time, while the allies report record military aid packages to Kiev and say that they have provided everything required for the much-ballyhooed counteroffensive, Ukraine maintains that the armaments received to date are still insufficient.

Meanwhile, despite Kiev's persistent calls for yet more armaments, Scholz made assurances that the Ukrainian authorities are ready for a peaceful resolution to the conflict. Moscow has previously stated that it does not oppose a peaceful resolution to the conflict, but does not currently see the necessary preconditions for achieving such a resolution, Kommersant writes.

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: EU prepares sanctions against China, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan

The heads of government of Central Asian countries will visit China on May 17-19, where they will attend the China-Central Asia summit and have one-on-one meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The Central Asian leaders are expecting to get a new investment package, especially as the Chinese leader has already stated that "big plans" are being discussed, even as the EU is expected to announce a new package of sanctions targeted at these countries, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.

China's Ministry of Commerce said the upcoming summit would be a platform for promoting economic and trade cooperation with the countries of the region, Xinhua news agency writes. China's direct investment in the five Central Asian countries had exceeded $15 bln by the end of March. The rapprochement between the countries comes amid reports that the European Union is preparing sanctions against Central Asian countries and companies that European officials suspect of helping Russia evade restrictive measures.

China, Iran, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan are among the candidates for sanctions in the EU’s 11th package. The new package will also ban supplies to third countries if they re-export European goods to Russia. As not all EU countries agree with this strategy, talks on the new package are still ongoing.

"Beijing intends to use this situation to negotiate and discuss guarantees of protection against Western pressure. Thus, the fundamental question of the China-Central Asia summit is whether China will be able to take advantage of Brussels' severity and provide Central Asian countries with promises of security from pressure, thereby raising its influence to a new level. Or perhaps, on the contrary, China will show weakness in the face of Western sanctions and will be busy protecting its own companies," Adil Kaukenov, chief expert at the Institute for Strategic Studies under the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta.

Kommersant: Brussels prodding Belgrade to join EU sanctions against Russia

The European Union is intensifying pressure on Serbia to join its sanctions regime as it prepares a fresh package of sanctions to impose on Russia. To that end, EU Sanctions Envoy David O'Sullivan visited Belgrade last week. On the eve of his arrival, the European Parliament passed a motion condemning Serbia for having close relations with Russia. According to sources, the European Union even threatened Belgrade with the suspension of the visa-free regime if Belgrade moves ahead with instituting a streamlined procedure for granting Serbian citizenship to Russians, Kommersant writes.

Following the talks with O'Sullivan, Serbian President Alexander Vucic stated that although Belgrade has not introduced its own sanctions against Russia, it would not serve as a conduit for evading other countries’ anti-Russian sanctions. However, the Serbian leadership’s assurances appear to be insufficient for Brussels. The European Parliament passed a special resolution on Serbia on the eve of O'Sullivan's visit, expressing regret that the Balkan country had not yet imposed sanctions on Russia. It also criticized Serbia's close relations with Russia, claiming that the situation directly contradicts EU positions. According to some reports, the European Union also threatened Belgrade with the suspension of the EU's visa-free regime.

Serbian Economy Minister Rade Basta recently openly advocated for Belgrade joining the EU’s anti-Russian sanctions regime. According to sources familiar with the Serbian leadership's position, his statements were intended to test public opinion and societal reactions to the potential imposition of sanctions on Russia, Kommersant writes.

 Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Baku, Yerevan trying to inch closer, but serious disagreements remain

Another round of negotiations between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan took place on May 14 in Brussels, with the involvement of European Council President Charles Michel. The negotiations focused on interstate relations, as well as a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan. According to Nezavisimaya Gazeta, neither Baku nor Yerevan held any particularly high hopes for the Brussels summit. The Azerbaijani side even expressed skepticism, claiming that Armenia has not shown any real willingness and intention to sign a peace treaty.

The main obstacle in the negotiation process, according to Armenian political scientist Areg Kochinyan, is Azerbaijan's maximalism. "Baku is obsessed with winning the war and wants to get everything at once. Such an attitude undermines the discussion of unresolved issues, such as the status of Artsakh (the Armenian name for Nagorno-Karabakh) and guarantees for the security and rights for the Armenians there," the expert told the newspaper.

Negotiations between Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan and Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov are scheduled to take place in Moscow on May 19. Baku is demanding that Yerevan officially recognize Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan, but also wants to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh issue without involving intermediaries. Yerevan, in turn, insists that any talks between Baku and Stepanakert, the Nagorno-Karabakh capital, be monitored by international organizations.