© AP Photo/Andrew Kravchenko/TASS
Top stories from the Russian press on Thursday, May 18th, prepared by TASS
The Black Sea grain deal has been extended for two more months; African nations are following in China’s footsteps by offering to act as a mediator for resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict; and Beijing is taking a new tack in how it cooperates with Central Asian nations. These stories topped Thursday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Media: Black Sea grain deal gets new lease on life, extended for another two months
The Black Sea Grain Initiative was extended for another two months just one day before its expiration date. Although Russia still has a number of grievances with the arrangement, Moscow did agree to extend the deal, first for 120 days (in November) and then for 60 days more (in March), Rossiyskaya Gazeta writes.
Given this harvest season’s record grain crop (nearly 158 mln metric tons), Russia will be able to export a record volume of about 57 mln tons. Despite the difficulties with payments, insurance and vessels, exporters have learned how to operate under sanctions, Vladimir Petrichenko, director of the ProZerno analysis firm, said. However, the latest move to extend the grain deal will have the effect of pushing grain prices further down. Petrichenko pointed out that Russian grain had already been trading at a discount for the entire season. Had export barriers been removed, exporters would not have to bear additional costs.
The political aspect of the deal’s extension also needs to be taken into account. Gokhan Cinkara, assistant professor at Turkey’s Necmettin Erbakan University, explained to Izvestia that the agreement’s prolongation could be seen "as a move strengthening the position of [Turkish] President Erdogan." "Erdogan has always held a balanced foreign policy position on Russia, prioritizing relations based on bilateral interests. Bearing in mind that Turkey is a NATO member makes it easier to understand the value of special relations between Erdogan and Putin, while opposition leader and presidential candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu is criticizing Russia’s role in Turkey’s domestic policy," the analyst noted.
"If Russia had not extended the deal, it would have dealt a blow to Erdogan," Andrey Suzdaltsev, associate professor at the Higher School of Economics (HSE University), pointed out. "Turkey is important for us because it is a hub for the transit of goods from the West, and we have always taken Turkey’s opinion into account. The previous moves to extend the deal in November and March also stemmed from Turkey’s position, which we responded to," the export emphasized.
Former United Nations Under-Secretary-General Sergey Ordzhonikidze is confident that had Russia failed to extend the deal, it would have had to block the port of Odessa, which does not appear to be part of Moscow’s plan.
Vedomosti: On heels of China, Africa offers to mediate Russia-Ukraine conflict
Several countries have simultaneously offered their services as a mediator for the Russia-Ukraine crisis. On May 16, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa announced a peace plan to resolve the conflict. He stated that he had held telephone consultations with both Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin. In the near future, Ramaphosa intends to visit Moscow and Kiev with a delegation from African nations, Vedomosti writes.
On the same day, May 16, Chinese Special Representative Li Hui arrived in Kiev to discuss a possible peaceful resolution based on China’s own initiative. The Chinese diplomat also plans to visit Russia, Poland, France and Germany. In late February, Beijing presented its 12-point plan to resolve the Ukrainian crisis, which in particular calls for declaring a ceasefire, resuming peace talks, creating humanitarian corridors, lifting unilateral sanctions and carrying out a series of efforts to facilitate post-conflict reconstruction.
"Beijing is focusing the attention of the international community, namely that of the Western public, on its participation in the process of [finding a] peaceful settlement. It’s crucial for the Chinese to act as a kind of mediator in the process, not a party to it," Yana Leksyutina, professor at St. Petersburg State University, pointed out. The Chinese leadership is making these efforts as a means of escaping criticism and pressure from the West, which has been pointing the finger at Beijing for supporting Russia and failing to make enough effort to achieve peace.
Although several countries have simultaneously offered their mediation services, China is the only one possessing the requisite political clout and economic resources, said Alexander Lukin, scientific director of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of China and Contemporary Asia. "Not so long ago, Saudi Arabia and Iran reached a historic agreement on improving relations, brokered by China. And now, they [the Chinese] are trying to bring Moscow and Kiev to the negotiating table. Such a policy is having a positive impact on the country’s image," the expert noted. China also has economic goals: "Beijing can’t benefit from any international conflicts. These processes negatively affect global economic development, [and are] also influencing the Chinese economy."
However, in Lukin’s words, China’s mediation efforts are unlikely to lead to a ceasefire in the short term because not all the interested parties are ready to engage in peace talks. "All conflicts end sooner or later and since there are no other serious players in terms of talks, the work of the Chinese diplomats will not go unnoticed. I believe that an agreement will be reached, although perhaps not based on all the 12 points [put forward by Beijing]," the expert concluded.
Media: China taking new tack in cooperation with Central Asia
The central Chinese city of Xian will host the first China-Central Asia Summit on May 18-19. The assembled heads of state will discuss the creation of a new mechanism for cooperation in various fields and sign key political documents. The summit should be viewed in the context of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s May 9 meeting with the leaders of Central Asian nations. Experts believe that a new 5+2 axis (Central Asia plus China and Russia) is now being formed, Nezavisimaya Gazeta notes.
The presidents of Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan have confirmed their attendance at the summit, which will be chaired by Chinese President Xi Jinping. Although Russia will not participate in the event, its interests may well be factored in to the mix, said Kubatbek Rakhimov, executive director of the Applicata Center for Strategic Solutions. According to him, Eurasia’s two heavyweight political actors are effectively focused on the region, which creates a unique opportunity for cooperation. The expert believes that for China, it is critical to boost multilateral ties in the region rather than just bilateral relationships. In particular, it is necessary to discuss projects pertaining to synchronization efforts and policy harmonization regarding both infrastructure and the energy sector in order to avoid inconsistencies given that the region’s own internal mechanisms may come into conflict with the interests of Russia and China.
Dina Malysheva, head of the Central Asia sector at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations, told Izvestia that the talk that China is seeking to drive Russia out of Central Asia has been heard ever since Beijing began positioning itself as a significant player in global politics and economics. However, this propaganda cliche has nothing to do with reality. "The countries of the region pursue a multi-oriented policy and are oriented toward various centers of power in economic terms. They are interested in preventing any of the [power] centers from dominating their politics and economies. Economic interaction between Central Asia and Russia has reached a rather high level and it’s not correct to say that China has leapfrogged Russia in this field," the expert explained.
Malysheva also noted that the two countries had an agreement on harmonizing their regional economic projects, namely the Belt and Road initiative and the Eurasian Economic Union. In addition, China’s main interest lies in using Central Asian countries as a conduit for the transit of goods to Europe. It is absolutely clear that Beijing could not succeed in achieving this goal without Russia.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Military cooperation taking center stage in Quad’s activities
US President Joe Biden has canceled his visits to Papua New Guinea and Australia due to the domestic debt-ceiling crisis. Biden had been expected to travel to Papua New Guinea to sign a military cooperation agreement and then head to Australia for a Sydney meeting of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (or the Quad, a strategic security dialogue between Australia, India, Japan and the US). The trip was expected to be a power play in Washington’s face-off with China. The former head of Australian intelligence pointed out that the countries of the region place great importance on personal visits by political leaders. So, if no visit takes place, the battle is half lost, Nezavisimaya Gazeta writes.
Although Quad members will not meet in Sydney, discussions will take place on the sidelines of the G7 summit in Hiroshima, Japan. Australia and India, who are not part of the G7 group, have been invited to the event.
The South China Morning Post newspaper points out that the Quad was created after a devastating tsunami in the Indian Ocean had killed over 200,000 people in 2004. The institution was initially designed to facilitate cooperation during natural disasters, the fight against epidemics and the adaptation to climate change. The Quad remained dormant until 2017, when then-US President Donald Trump reanimated the format, deciding to turn it into a group of democratic countries rejecting the encroachments of autocratic China. Biden has also backed this approach. India’s Hindustan Times writes that military cooperation is taking center stage in the organization’s activities. High-ranking commanders from the four member states recently held a meeting in California.
Still, "it’s too early to talk about [the] Quad turning into a military bloc as no documents on the matter have been adopted so far," said Alexey Kupriyanov, head of the South Asia group at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations. "However, it’s another thing altogether that the US is trying to turn the group into a tool for containing China, while India is seeking [the Quad’s] support in terms of its border dispute [with Beijing]. This is why the chief of India’s defense staff took part in the meeting. As for weapons, China has deployed tactical missiles to the Himalayas. India, in turn, has BrahMos missiles designed in cooperation with Russia, and, now, it wants to boost its defense capabilities in the region with domestically made missiles," the expert noted.
Kommersant: Rosatom seeks to redirect Russian oil exports from Baltic Sea to Arctic route
Alexey Likhachev, CEO of Russia’s Rosatom state nuclear energy corporation, suggested at a meeting chaired by President Vladimir Putin that Russian oil exports should be redirected from ports on the Baltic Sea to the Northern Sea Route. Rosatom says that the latter represents "the most attractive and safe route," particularly given the impact of Western sanctions on Moscow. Experts interviewed by Kommersant believe that it would take several years to create the necessary conditions for such energy supplies to be delivered via Arctic routes.
The volume of cargo traffic along the Northern Sea Route stood at 34 mln metric tons in 2022 and is expected to reach 36 mln tons this year. "The participation of partners from friendly countries not only in Northern Sea Route transit but also in infrastructure development is under consideration," the Rosatom chief noted.
The idea has its merits. Sanctions have made oil companies abandon delivering oil to Europe, offering the freed-up supply volumes to Asian markets instead, which has pushed freight costs higher. Additionally, exporting oil via Baltic ports requires passing through the Skagerrak straits between Denmark and Sweden, which, hypothetically, could, in the future, pose a threat to tankers carrying Russian oil should claims be raised that such vessels allegedly are unsafe or lack proper European insurance. From this perspective, the Northern Sea Route appears to offer a safer path, albeit a lengthier one.
According to Nadezhda Malysheva from Portnews, redirecting large amounts of oil from Baltic ports to the Northern Sea Route would take at least a few years, while the need for icebreaking escorts would make auxiliary logistics services more expensive.
Two of the newspaper’s sources said that the redirecting of oil supplies from Russia’s Baltic ports of Ust-Luga and Primorsk to the Northern Sea Route had been discussed with Gazprom Neft and Rosneft. The oil companies are troubled, however, by the need to order special tankers that are not mass produced in Russian shipyards, as well as by the lack of a sufficient fleet of icebreakers. An alternative option that is currently under consideration involves the export of several oil shipments in the summer when conventional tankers can navigate the Northern Sea Route unhindered by ice.
