© Maxim Stupov/TASS

The Ukraine conflict can be immediately stopped if Western countries halt financial and military assistance to the Kiev regime, EU diplomacy chief Josep Borrel said in an interview with the Spanish Sexta channel, adding that this kind of peace won’t meet the interests of the West. Such statements by the European leadership are somewhat different from those made earlier — until now, Brussels has constantly assured readiness to shovel Ukraine with money for as long as it takes. And it did, basically.

Thus, the total EU amount of assistance to Ukraine reached 16 billion euros by May 2023, Borrel said at the European Defense and Security Conference. This year features favorable credit facilities to Ukraine called "Macro-financial Assistance Plus" providing for another 18 billion euros. Moreover, the European Commission is developing a four-year financial assistance plan worth tens of billions of euros meant for Kiev, Financial Times reports. Transition to a new performance budgeting allegedly resulted from criticism of previous unbridled expenditures. Now there will be a document with a detailed list of expenses through and including 2027. At the same time, the plan should consolidate obligations of the parties and make them independent of election results in a particular country, i.e. politicians claiming power are planned to be deprived of any chance to implement mottoes loke "Stop feeding Ukrainians, let's address our own issues."

There is also an across-the-board fundraising effort. June 20 saw London host the ostentatious International Ukraine Recovery Conference, with over a thousand investors from 61 countries engaged. Among those expected are distinguished guests, heads of state and government, ministers and billionaires, as well as the King of Great Britain himself. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken flew there right from China. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced in advance that his speech would be urging businesses to "invest in Ukraine."

A curious thing is that conference goals have changed since the first one held in Lugano, Switzerland, when it was mainly about Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction. Judging by Sunak's speech, Western hopes for a prompt end to hostilities after Ukraine’s counteroffensive failure are fading away, and conference participants will be therefore urged not to let it go completely bankrupt before the war ends.

Judging by statements by conference hosts, a major task will be to make it clear to Moscow that attempts "to destroy Ukraine will only lead to it becoming a stronger, more prosperous, and more united European nation." So, this venue is not about Ukraine, but about demonstrating things to the president of Russia — a media stunt for the "world community".

Meanwhile, the EU finds it increasingly hard to find new billions for Kiev, with its economy suggesting that time has come for the European elites to focus on the domestic situation rather that assisting Ukraine. Germany faces a technical recession that threatens to turn into a real one. The external debts of Italy, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic have reached an all-time high. All the Eastern European members states have become the leading borrowers in international markets among developing countries.

There is one more consideration. US assistance is mainly weaponry, and the money actually remains in the United States itself, namely its defense industry, which produces and sells these weapons. And Europe has to part with its forever, tearing it away from its people and budgets. And the EU starts to apprehend that honoring the pledges by Ursula von der Leyen et al. requires taking away funds from someone, so as to cut expenses for these purposes. Having apparently smelled a rat, Germany said last week that it would not raise its contribution to the EU's framework budget because of support to Ukraine.

A growing number of European politicians comes to realize that this "luminous feat of generosity " cannot go on and on. This is what Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said in this regard: "Effectively, Ukraine is a non-existent country in financial terms. The fall in economic indicators is huge, which is completely understandable due to the war. Obviously, Ukraine can’t finance itself." The question is, for how long is the West ready to support Ukraine? In his opinion, "the moment when America and Europe answer ‘no’ to that question — the war will end."

And Kiev's inefficient counteroffensive makes sensible politicians wonder if it's worth the cost at all. They regarded the conflict in Ukraine as tolerable while being sure it would not last longer than several months. But it now turns out that no one knows the exact timing, and the Europeans themselves begin to "rebel", making the EU focus on its own people, not Ukraine’s. This is particularly Hungary’s official stance, while thousands of relevant rallies take place in the Czech Republic, Germany, Slovakia, Italy, Spain, France, and the Netherlands. An anti-war movement has even emerged in Poland.

Public sentiment also affects the political balance. Polls suggest that the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) has become the second most popular to outperform the Greens, whose leader Annalena Baerbock is a consistent Ukraine aid lobbyist. Moreover, the AfD draft party program released before the European Parliament election advocates EU dissolution to create a new economic community, the Welt newspaper reported on June 19. As noted in the document, the party is running out of forbearance about the bloc’s line.

In France, more and more people support the far-right National Rally party and wants its leader Marine Le Pen become the next president. Jacqueline Maquet, a deputy from the ruling Renaissance party, has warned about the looming right-wing populist "tsunami".

This time, money will be certainly given to Ukraine, and the Americans will press Europe into further assistance until the number of dissenters reaches a critical mass. But as per Josep Barrel’s statements, European officials are about to sort things out soon.

Therefore, the "counteroffensive" outcome and results of the upcoming cold season in the EU countries will be the difference to both ordinary citizens and the EU leadership as to whether or not they are able to keep helping Ukraine, destroying their own economy with sanctions and losing billions in this "black hole".