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Latest EU, US sanctions may target 'Russia's helpers' in skirting sanctions among third countries; Russia's Defense Ministry warns that Ukraine-bound vessels traversing the Black Sea will be stopped and inspected; and 100-year-old ex-US Secretary of State Kissinger travels down memory lane on private visit to China. These stories topped Thursday's newspaper headlines across Russia.

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: West set to target 'Russia's helpers' in latest sanctions packages

On Thursday, the EU Foreign Affairs Council will discuss in Brussels the 12th package of anti-Russian sanctions and, most importantly, measures against countries that have been helping Russia to circumvent existing restrictions. The United States is also set to penalize countries that have helped Russia to bypass sanctions, primarily targeting Kyrgyzstan and Belarus.

EU officials acknowledged earlier that the bloc had already imposed every conceivable sanction that it possibly could against Russia. Next, the West will likely focus its efforts on enforcing strict compliance with the previously imposed sanctions. On Wednesday, the European Commission sent EU diplomats the text of the bloc’s seventh package of sanctions on Belarus. Among other restrictions, this package will include an effort to crack down on military components being illegally routed to Russia through Belarus, POLITICO reported. EU officials are expected to formally adopt the new sanctions next week, presumably on July 26.

The Washington Post reported, citing sources, that the Biden administration is preparing sanctions against Kyrgyzstan. Washington claims that companies in the former Soviet republic are supplying Russia with sanctioned equipment and electronics, bypassing Western sanctions. According to the Washington Post, restrictions against Kyrgyz companies could come as early as this week.

Alexander Tevdoy-Burmuli, associate professor in the Department of Integration Processes at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO University), told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that the West began discussing instituting tougher controls on attempts to circumvent anti-Russian sanctions long ago, whereas the practical application of restrictions largely depends on precisely what type of goods are involved in so-called "grey schemes." "For example, re-exporting microchips would certainly be subject to sanctions. But, in the case of Turkey, I think they will eschew direct pressure in favor of using persuasion, the more so that the West can find a common language with [Ankara]. Turkey is not happy with Russia’s withdrawal from the [Black Sea] grain deal, thus making it easier for the United States to induce [Turkey] to change its mind on sanctions," the expert surmised.

Izvestia: Russia intends to inspect vessels in Black Sea bound for Ukrainian ports

Effective July 20, Russia will inspect vessels traveling through the Black Sea to Ukrainian ports, viewing them as potential carriers of military cargo, while the countries whose flags they sail under will be designated as supporters of the Kiev regime in the Ukraine conflict. Additionally, the Russian Defense Ministry said, a number of zones in international waters will be declared temporarily dangerous for navigation. Moreover, on the night of July 18, Russian forces delivered missile strikes on military industry, fuel infrastructure and storage facilities near Odessa.

In an interview with Izvestia, military expert Vasily Dandykin said he would now expect Russia to stop and inspect all ships sailing to Ukrainian ports. "This practice is normal: There is a war zone there, and in the past two days it has been the scene of missile strikes. We’ll see how this will work in practice and whether there will be anyone willing to send vessels to these waters, because this is [a] very serious [step]," he said.

Another military expert, Alexey Leonkov, expressed the view that the missile strikes on the port of Odessa signal that Russia is finally finished with the grain deal. "[Russia] has always spared this port by not targeting it," the expert told Izvestia. "Ukrainian militants, in turn, declared it [the port] a grain deal zone, and have been busy stockpiling their military equipment and deploying military motor boats there," he explained.

The expert also said that Russia may now target the ports in Ochakov and Nikolayev, too, as they are also home to Ukrainian military infrastructure.

Media: Ex-US Secretary of State Kissinger travels memory lane on private visit to China

Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger has arrived in Beijing for meetings with Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu and Wang Yi, director of the Foreign Affairs Commission Office of the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee. More than 50 years ago, Kissinger paved the way for restoring diplomatic relations between Beijing and Washington and persuading the People’s Republic of China to side with the United States in its confrontation with the Soviet Union. Kissinger’s visit came after trips to Beijing by current Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry. Although the White House is seeking to put the US’ relationship with China back on a normal track, Kissinger is making the visit on his own initiative, but will brief the Biden administration on his meetings.

In a conversation with Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Alexander Lomanov, deputy director of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO RAS), noted: "Kissinger’s trip is symbolic. His meeting with the Chinese defense minister shows that China is open to dialogue, but within a framework it considers appropriate. Meanwhile, Kissinger is trying to prevent Sino-American relations from collapsing." Contrasting Kissinger’s heyday, the late 1960s and 1970s, when the US held trump cards giving it leverage over Beijing, including China’s brief military conflict with the USSR near Zhenbao (Damansky) Island and China’s struggle to restore is lawful seat in the United Nations in place of Taiwan, with the current situation, the expert noted that, today, the US only holds the ambition to drive a wedge between China and Russia but has absolutely no opportunity to do so.

In an interview with Vedomosti, Lomanov recalled that Kissinger has never been particularly close to the US military, even at the peak of his career. This prompted the expert to surmise that Kissinger’s latest conversation with Chinese defense chief Li might be part of a separate mission: The Pentagon may have tasked Kissinger with conveying an important security message to Beijing. Otherwise, Lomanov doubted that such a visit could ever have taken place, given Washington’s hostile attitude toward Beijing.

Timofey Bordachev, academic supervisor at the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics (HSE University), disagreed. In his view, Kissinger is visiting China for purely personal reasons. In the past three decades, he has provided China-related consulting services. Therefore, the expert argued, his trip may purely be driven by the need to negotiate an exit route for the centenarian’s business interests away from an array of looming risks.

Vedomosti: EU may set up €20 bln ($22.4 bln) fund for weapons supplies to Ukraine

The European Union will propose a dedicated €20 bln fund to support Ukraine’s military needs in 2024-2028, POLITICO reported on July 18, citing European diplomats. The initiative would not involve the EU directly paying for weapons for Ukraine, the newspaper said. Instead, the bloc would help member countries cover their own costs for purchasing and donating armaments to Kiev. Brussels would also help pay to train Ukrainian soldiers.

EU foreign ministers will start discussing the proposal later today and are planning to adopt it by the fall, according to POLITICO.

The decision to establish such a fund will be accompanied by a series of in-depth debates within the EU, said Artyom Sokolov, a researcher with the European Studies Institute at Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO University). Even though the EU is aware of Hungary’s special stance on assistance for Kiev, the bloc will continue to sponsor Ukraine anyway, and its support will vary dynamically. While differences within the EU have complicated decision-making on the volumes of assistance to Kiev, certain forces inside the bloc benefit from this, the expert noted. "There are political forces in the EU that benefit from the situation wherein one of the countries is an ‘ugly duckling’ on the issue of helping Ukraine," Sokolov said. "These forces find it convenient to hide behind Hungary, which has been most strongly opposed to assisting Kiev <…>. And, since the United States only is capable of putting pressure on Zelensky’s government, what appear to be Budapest’s modest demands regarding OTP Bank will never be met," the expert added.

Hungary will fight as long as it can for removing OTP Bank from the Ukrainian blacklist and, thus, Budapest will oppose allocating any more money from the Peace Fund to Ukraine, explained Kirill Temeretsky at the Higher School of Economics (HSE University). Hungary is still reluctant to help Ukraine, which has been so insolent in its relations with the EU while sanctioning European companies, he said. Meanwhile, Brussels is putting increasing pressure on Budapest, as the EU leaders would like the Hungarians to turn a blind eye to Ukraine’s blacklisting of the top Hungarian bank so as to not put up a roadblock to further EU support for Kiev. However, Budapest will not back down, Temeretsky said. According to him, Hungary has certain claims against Ukraine that it will not withdraw under any circumstances. Without this, Temeretsky concluded, Hungary will never warm up to Ukraine.

Vedomosti: Russian copper exports to EU see five-fold decline

In January-May, Russian deliveries of refined copper and alloys to the EU saw a five-fold decline against the first five months of last year to 32,200 metric tons, according to Eurostat. The Netherlands, Italy, Greece, Germany, Spain and Bulgaria imported the Russian metal in January-May.

Although the EU never sanctioned Russian copper exports, Germany’s Aurubis, Europe’s largest copper producer, refused to renew contracts with its Russian suppliers in April 2023.

Last year, Russia could sell its copper to the EU under long-term contracts, said Boris Krasnozhenov at Alfa-Bank. However, traders reported refusals to import Russian copper in late 2022, he specified.

Finam analyst Alexey Kalachev agreed, telling Vedomosti that refusals by certain consumers to buy the metal from Russia may not have appeared immediately due to existing contractual obligations. In addition, there may be issues with logistics and settlements amid sanctions in other spheres, he added.

According to Krasnozhenov, copper supply in the EU may dwindle in 2023, with LME reserves falling to the lowest since 1997, and Russian copper accounting for the bulk of those, or more than 90% as of late January. However, the expert said, Russian exporters may redirect copper exports to Asia and the Middle East.

To Kalachev, the EU is unlikely to impose a direct ban on Russian copper as the bloc needs the metal due to its energy transition strategy, renewable energy ambitions and the use of electric vehicles. Consumers who intend to wean themselves off of Russian copper will have to buy it from other suppliers, while Russian copper will go to alternative markets, including the domestic market, "since copper consumption in the defense industry may have increased in Russia," he argued.