© AP Photo/Sam Mednick/TASS

Things in Niger keep attracting attention with the rest of the world. The country’s growth path and political orientation has changed overnight, with a group of Presidential Guard personnel (later joined by the regular army command) staging a coup to seize power.

Guard chief Abdourahamane Tchiani declared himself head of state, forming a new authority called the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland. Its leadership is seeking to combat corruption and national wealth embezzlement. In fact, the rebels speak for the people and those society strata that resent the former government’s course, which allowed France engage in outright plundering of Niger’s natural resources.

Though rich in uranium ore and gold deposits, the country is one of the world’s poorest based on GDP per capita. And France gets over 40 percent of its uranium from processing Niger’s ore. French companies keep a tight rein on gold mining in this African country, depriving its economy of the funds needed. As of late 2020, the average monthly per capita income was about $50.

This made the head of state’ entourage led by his personal guard chief undertake a coup. Ousted President of Niger Mohamed Bazoum has been arrested and kept inside his residence. The rebels threaten bodily harm to him in case of a foreign intervention, Western press reports claim.

The United States, France, the European Union and ECOWAS have strongly condemned the military coup. The African community even threatened to intervene and restore the deposed President’s power without approval from the UN Security Council. However, ECOWAS leaders remain at odds over the issue: some of them are opposed to a military involvement, as the joint military command points to the lack of means and funds for a joint effort.

In fact, the ultimate solution on a military operation has been postponed for several weeks to find ways of resolving things diplomatically. At the same time, ECOWAS member states (15 West African States) have imposed sanctions against the rebels, curtailing trade and economic relations with Niger. Neighboring Nigeria has stopped supplying electricity. Tchiani held talks with that country’s top-tier religious leaders and urged them to lift restrictions.

Niger witnesses a major population outflow in the face of potential military actions. The Russian Foreign Ministry has called for a peaceful settlement based on a political and diplomatic dialogue with the new Nigerien authorities, and "supports the ECOWAS' mediation efforts aimed at searching for ways out of the crisis that was created." Moscow believes that a military solution to the conflict may severely destabilize the entire Sahara-Sahel region or entail a protracted armed confrontation with third countries engaged.

ECOWAS is able to allocate a 25-thousand-strong force to suppress the rebellion. The bulk of it (over 50 percent) will be Nigerian army personnel accounting for 200,000 people. The government of Cote d'Ivoire is known to have agreed to allocate a battalion comprising 850 fighters. Other countries of the community have been dilly-dallying over the choice.

There is a 500-strong French military contingent in the territory of Niger, tasked with ensuring safe mining and transportation of uranium ore and gold. The country is also home to the largest US Air Force unmanned aerial vehicle base on the continent, accounting for 1,000 American servicemen.

There is no accurate data on the strength of Niger's force structures. Rough estimates show that it varies between 10,000 and 30,000 military, about 150 armored vehicles, 140 personnel carriers, 40 mortars, 10 anti-aircraft guns, 10 helicopters, two attack aircraft and several reconnaissance planes.

In case of a foreign aggression, Niger will enjoy direct military assistance from Mali and Burkina Faso, whose governments consider an intervention as an attack on their own countries. The rebels may be assisted by Russian private military companies engaged in protecting natural deposits abroad. The new Nigerien authorities are reported to have requested assistance with the Wagner group renowned in Africa.

The meeting of ECOWAS chiefs of general staff in Accra set for August 12 has been shelved, perhaps following the Algerian decision to close its airspace to any French aircraft right after the coup in Niger. At the same time, the Algerian army command sent several military units to the Niger-bordering southern regions, where they have T-80 tanks, Terminator AFVs, Pantsir-S anti-aircraft systems, and other cutting-edge weapons. Several fighter and army aviation units have been relocated to local airfields.

This North African country’s armed forces siding with Niger are deemed a real threat by its opponents, even despite Western support.

Therefore, ECOWAS governments will have to face up to internal dissent and dangers of a possible aggression against Niger.