© Sergey Bobylev/TASS

Top stories from the Russian press on Tuesday, August 22nd, prepared by TASS

BRICS group faces pivotal decision on expansion as Johannesburg summit kicks off; Trump, boasting healthy lead over rivals in polls, to skip first GOP primary debate; and US, Japan and Australia planning joint naval drills in South China Sea. These stories topped Tuesday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

Vedomosti: Future of BRICS hinges on summit’s choice of expansion option

At the 15th summit of BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), which kicks off in Johannesburg on August 22, a pivotal decision may be made on expanding the club. As the South African Foreign Ministry said earlier, 23 countries have submitted official applications to join BRICS. On August 21, South African Foreign Ministry Spokesman Nelson Kgwete told TASS that, altogether, the leaders of more than 40 countries will participate in the summit. Russian President Vladimir Putin will participate in the event via video link, while Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will be onsite to represent Russia in person.

The main candidates for expansion are Saudi Arabia and Indonesia, thinks Yaroslav Lisovolik, Russian International Affairs Council member and founder of the BRICS+ Analytics company. He explained that out of all the Global South regions, only the Middle East and Southeast Asia are unrepresented among BRICS member states.

Lisovolik stressed that insinuations about China’s aspiration to turn BRICS into an antipode of the G7 are groundless. "China, possibly, will support the fostering of interaction with various institutions with Western participation via BRICS+," the expert opined. That said, he did not rule out the possibility that the organization’s current makeup may remain the same while those countries that applied for membership may join an allied formation, say, the "Friends of BRICS" group or BRICS+. Lisovolik noted that expanding the core membership of the club would create certain difficulties, above all pertaining to the ability to reach a consensus on key issues, such as introducing a shared currency, for example.

The main advantage of BRICS expansion is that it would serve to confirm the organization’s global nature, thus placing it alongside the G20 and G7, Timofey Bordachev, academic supervisor at the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics (HSE University), said. He also noted the shortcomings of this path, which would stem from the complications that expansion would introduce in the decision-making process. "The participation of Brazil and South Africa, for example, already adds certain difficulties since they are less resolved to alter the world order than Russia and China," the expert noted. That said, Bordachev clarified that BRICS represents a rather democratic interaction format, while stressing that Sino-Indian differences of opinion represent the biggest weak point in the entire "non-West" in general, and within the BRICS group in particular.

Media: Trump way ahead of rivals in polls, to skip Republican debate

Former US President Donald Trump has made a risky decision for an American presidential candidate by refusing to participate in debates with his rivals for the Republican Party nomination, at least in the first debate round to be held this week. According to Trump, he already has an indisputable edge over other GOP presidential candidates. While it is possible that this is just a typical show of Trumpian bravado, it could also be that Trump himself may fear that his performance on the debate stage could end up denting his thus-far-stellar performance in the polls. Moreover, this week Trump must undergo the formal arrest procedure over the case of his alleged meddling in the electoral process in Georgia in the 2020 election.

"Overall, refusing to debate does not carry any serious threats to Trump’s ratings: In a way, he really has nothing to discuss with other candidates and there are much more pressing issues because a prison sentence could negatively impact his ability to campaign. However, on the other hand, this refusal diverges from the American political tradition," says Doctor of Law Alexander Domrin. In a conversation with Nezavisimaya Gazeta, he added that a substantial chunk of the Republican establishment still opposes Trump’s comeback bid in this election.

The goal of the debate is to bring forward a Republican leader as an alternative to Trump, said Vladimir Vasilyev, senior research fellow at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for US and Canadian

Studies, in a conversation with Vedomosti. According to the expert, the ex-president hopes that no winner will be determined on the debate stage and that everything will end with inter-party feuding that would only serve to underscore the lack of alternatives to his candidacy and the inevitability of his leading the GOP into the general election, presumably in a rematch against incumbent US President Joe Biden. "Trump’s absence at the debate puts his opponents in a tough spot: If they criticize him, they will only worsen their own positions," the expert noted. "Moreover, if Trump manages to prove that other candidates lack any prospects, their financial support from Republican sponsors will dry up substantially," he added.

According to Valery Garbuzov, director of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for US and Canadian Studies, Trump’s popularity within his party is explained by the fact that, during his presidency, he managed to acquire reliable supporters, particularly among conservative Republicans. That said, according to the expert, Trump also managed to sway some Democrats to switch to the Republican side. "It is important to remember that in the US, the percentage of undecided voters is high. Currently, many support Trump because, as opposed to [Florida Governor Ron] DeSantis, he has experience as president. Those who'd been in the White House are often more popular than newcomers," Garbuzov told Vedomosti.

That said, the expert does not rule out that Trump may exit the presidential race at later stages if he loses support among the Republican leadership. "It is possible that skipping the current debate may be a sign that the ex-president is considering this option," Garbuzov concluded.

Izvestia: US, allies hold drills in South China Sea, ostensibly to uphold 'rule of law'

This week, the US, Japan and Australia are planning joint naval drills in the South China Sea near the western coast of the Philippines. Their goal is "to underscore their commitment to the rule of law in the region," which is a clear response to China’s recent actions against Philippine vessels in the contested waterway, which Beijing described as "necessary measures to firmly safeguard its territorial sovereignty." Both Manila and Tokyo are concerned over China’s actions and its growing military cooperation with Russia in the Pacific.

Current US-Japanese-Australian drills in the South China Sea is a firm allied response to recent "excessive and offensive" actions by China and will be much more palpable than any statements criticizing Beijing’s policy, Lucio Blanco Pitlo III, an expert on Asian region and China at the

Ateneo de Manila University, told Izvestia. According to the Filipino expert, this shows that maritime incidents may serve as an incentive to expand cooperation at sea between the Philippines and its foreign partners. He noted that Manila will use such an alliance and partner relations in order to even out the asymmetry of its forces in relations with China.

The expert suggested that, in the near future, even more allied aircraft and ships will appear in the South China Sea, triggering an equivalent response from Beijing which would lead to even more frequent and close "encounters."

Koichi Nakano, professor of political science at Sophia University, told Izvestia that the Japanese government was trying to show off its force more and more in cooperation with the US and other countries, but, as a rule, this was done not to protect Japan per se but to bolster the US-led "liberal order." That said, the main attention was given to potential "unforeseen circumstances" in Taiwan.

However, according to him, lately Washington has been more cautious as to not to provoke China more as the US presidential election draws closer. Which means that Japan, as a subordinate party, is hardly likely to undertake something on its own despite concerns over the strengthened China-Russia duo.

Nezavisimaya Gazeta: Remake of Arab Spring now showing in southern Syria

The south of Syria has encountered a strong wave of protests due to the deteriorating quality of life. Large-scale disturbances, which Arab media outlets branded as the most extensive since 2011, the year that the so-called Arab Spring began, broke out recently in Sweida Province, mainly populated by the ethnic Druze minority. Although over recent years, official Damascus with the assistance of external players has managed to unfreeze diplomatic relations with its neighbors in the region and return to the Arab League, the country’s economy continues to display the symptoms of a serious crisis.

Anton Mardasov, an independent expert on Syria, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that public dissatisfaction is quite evident in Syria’s southern provinces, which in 2018 were "appeased" when the Russian side provided certain guarantees. "Non-commercial organizations have not been active in these regions for several years already," the expert pointed out. "Since 2018, the quality of life there has plummeted sharply while interaction with authorities results in nothing but sporadic raids organized by law enforcement. Despite aid to Assad by outside players and Syria’s restored membership in the Arab League, residents in these regions do not profit from this at all while their quality of life has been worsening every year," he explained.

The expert noted that a number of former local opposition activists, not to mention government supporters, are actively engaged in profitable smuggling activities in borderline regions. "That said, the population’s protest potential in many ways is related to the fact that not only do they compare the quality of life before and after 2018, but are also well aware why trade with other countries is being hindered and what taxation is based on," Mardasov stressed. According to him, this situation frequently does not reflect the consequences of sanctions imposed on Damascus because the initiators of restrictive measures, including the US, have been turning a blind eye to many loopholes for a while.

Kommersant: Urals oil travels via Northern Sea Route

Under sanctions conditions, Russian oil companies are trying to use the Northern Sea Route (NSR) more frequently to deliver Urals crude from Baltic ports. In theory, such a route to Asia may be shorter and cheaper than the traditional option via the Suez Canal. According to Kommersant, Rosneft and

Gazprom Neft sent three loads of oil via the NSR to China in July and August. However, the delivery time, given difficult ice conditions, so far is surpassing alternate routes.

In May, the issue of redirecting Russian oil deliveries via the NSR was mentioned by Alexey Likhachev, CEO of Russia’s Rosatom State Nuclear Energy Corporation, at a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Then, he described the NSR as "the safest and the most attractive route." Yet the key issue in redirecting substantial volumes via the NSR is in the shortage of tankers with higher ice reinforcement and icebreakers, and as of now this route can only be a seasonal option.

The advantage of the NSR is in the opportunity to shorten the delivery chain to China if ice conditions do not slow the tankers down, noted Viktor Katona of the Kpler analytical agency.

According to Mikhail Grigoryev, head of the Gekon consulting center, Russian oil companies have already dispatched seven oil tankers along the NSR. According to his estimates, the vessels will transport about 700,000 tons of oil over seven trips.