The August 18 summit at Camp David involving US President Joe Biden, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and South Korean leader Yun Suk-young, was to become historic. Just like in 1975, when America was reconciling the Israelis and the Arabs, Washington now needed to make peace between Japan and South Korea, its two key military allies in the East, and thus create sort of a 1904-type Entente Cordiale between the once sworn enemies. Back then, this referred to France and Great Britain, who joined hands with Russia to oppose Germany and Austria in World War I. Washington’s present-day agenda features a deep military-political comprehension of China, Russia, and the DPRK, with the core of this aggressive architecture located in the Far East.
Meanwhile, relations between Tokyo and Seoul have been really strained until recently.
In many ways, their issues have been caused by Japan's ruthless colonial rule over Korea in 1910-1945. There is a lingering territorial dispute between the two over the Korean-controlled Dokdo (Takeshima) islands. The Korean society has been sensitive to criminal negligence of its compatriots during the war, when over 200,000 Koreans were conscripted into the Japanese army, and about a million worked at military industry enterprises in nightmarish conditions. And there is a lot of sentiment about tens of thousands of Korean women who had to work as sex slaves at Japanese army’s field brothels. Mutual hostility seems a persistent part of the two peoples’ historical memory and national identity.
In 1965, the reparations agreement made Tokyo pay $800 million (about $7.5 billion today) in low-interest grants and loans to solve all the South Korean claims “once and for all”, and 1993 saw Japanese Prime Minister Tomiichi Murayama publicly apologize for the colonial damage inflicted. And the issue seemed to have been taken off the table — at least that's what Tokyo thought.
Nevertheless, the Supreme Court of South Korea demanded extra compensations for women in 2011, and the request was satisfied four years later with a provision of never raising the subject again. But in 2018, a similar ruling followed for all the other victim categories, with Korea also refusing to deem the "sex slaves" decisions irrevocable. The Japanese went berserk.
In response, Japan imposed restrictions on exports to South Korea of high-tech materials for semiconductor use. In addition, Tokyo removed South Korea from the list of exporting countries enjoying trade preferences.
The Koreans gave tit for tat and waived an agreement with Japan on exchanging classified military information, particularly on the DPRK.
In general, the neighbors on the Sea of Japan parted brass rags top to bottom, and it took the Americans two years and over 40 diplomatic meetings at different levels to smooth out all the problems, while adding a diplomatic victory to Biden's campaign piggy bank.
The latter told a press conference following the trilateral Camp David summit that a "new era" had begun in their relations, and meetings of the kind would now be held annually. Let alone working-level diplomatic, defense and economic sessions. And if anything crops up, "we’ll have a hotline to share information and coordinate our responses whenever there is a crisis in the region or affecting any one of our countries," the American president said.
Biden also highlighted Washington, Tokyo and Seoul’s shared stance on Ukraine, Taiwan, the freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, potential DPRK arms supplies to Russia, and, of course, the extended practice of joint military exercises and maneuvers, along with other security measures.
An Entente Cordiale, pure and simple. But by no means NATO, as Biden's advisers have stated time and again. Apparently, the White House and its allies in the region hate to encourage strengthened military-political ties between Russia and China. Moreover, the union is more about cold math than cordiality.
Indeed, Japan and South Korea have not committed to engage in each other's collective defense, as required by Article 5 of the NATO Charter, for one. Although both Seoul and Tokyo have military alliance agreements with the United States, this kind of military-political architecture is not a full-fledged formal "triangle", at least for now. On the other hand, it provides basis for US nuclear deterrence against North Korean or Chinese threats, so that Tokyo and Seoul do not have to create their own bombs, well-informed Washington Post columnist David Ignatius reported.
And such a possibility is clearly Washington’s concern.
As for South Korea, back in 1975 amid the defeat of South Vietnam, then President Park Chung-hee first mentioned willingness to get nuclear weapons. The issue has repeatedly emerged since then. In early 2023, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol said that in case of further security deterioration due to the threat coming from Pyongyang, his country would consider having its own or US nuclear arms in its territory. At that, half of South Korean population is supportive of obtaining their own nuclear weapons in response to Pyongyang’s relevant developments.
The nuclear issue has become a frequenter in Japan, too. It does have technologies, plutonium, and specialists, making pundits claim that the country is glance away from possessing nukes. Political will is needed here.
Despite all the post-war Japan’s anti-nuclear rhetoric, current and retired politicians and military incidentally declare the capability and desirability of possessing a bomb.
And Trump, while still a presidential candidate, has pulled a stunt by saying that it is becoming expensive for the United States to keep protecting Japan from nuclear powers like China, North Korea and Russia, and suggested that Japan develop its own.
But here's a big deal.
Back a few years ago, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the following when assessing the outcome of his counterpart’s, and now Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s visit to Moscow: “We are witnessing a renewal of the principles of defense cooperation between Japan and the United States with signs of what I would call a ‘nuclear profile’ beginning to be visible.”
In 2022, ex-PM Shinzo Abe was citing public opinion polls that indicated people’s readiness to contemplate garnering a nuclear potential. As the gold standard taught us, you have to bring the idea to the masses…
The thing is that both Japan and South Korea do not really believe in the credibility of American "nuclear umbrella". No one can guarantee that Washington will sacrifice its west coast for Tokyo or Seoul in case of a conflict with the PRC or the DPRK, which has recently become a much-hyped media message.
However, having their own deterrence potential almost automatically encourages expanded foreign policy independence of these countries. And this is not what the hegemon wants. Hence the US-arranged historic gathering at Camp David to reconcile and calm down the two sworn allies.