Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh announce ceasefire; Vladimir Putin to visit China for Belt and Road Forum; and Ukrainian president visits US amid tensions with allies. These stories topped Thursday’s newspaper headlines across Russia as reported by TASS.
Azerbaijan and Nagorno-Karabakh managed to reach a full ceasefire agreement through the mediation of Russia's peacekeeping mission a day after the start of Baku’s military operation. The deal stipulates the withdrawal of Armenian forces from Azerbaijani territory and the disbandment of the Karabakh army. It was also decided that Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians and Baku will hold talks on reintegration, with the first round set for September 21, Izvestia writes.
Less than a year ago, the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan held a meeting in Prague, which also involved the European Council chief and the French president. Back then, Baku and Yerevan recognized each other’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. "By signing a four-party agreement in Prague, Armenia put down on paper that it recognized Nagorno-Karabakh as being part of Azerbaijan. That said, the current Armenian leader, Nikol Pashinyan, who is seen as a man of the people and a champion in the fight against corruption, is the one to blame for this latest tragedy for the Armenian people," said Igor Polyachenko, head of the Office of International Cooperation at the State University of Management.
"On September 19-20, 2023, we saw the end of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, which was previously suspended in November 2020, an outcome which satisfied neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan," Vadim Mukhanov, head of the Caucasus Sector of the Center for Post-Soviet Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute of World Economy and International Relations, told Vedomosti. Baku could have taken victory in the fall of 2020; the Armenians had lost control of all the important strategic points and this time around, Armenian volunteer fighters were unable to resist for long, Mukhanov explained. In such a situation, the Karabakh Armenians would have had to accept the victor’s terms.
Pashinyan distanced himself from the situation in Karabakh by saying that Armenia did not plan to go to battle and did not have troops deployed in the region, while Karabakh forces had no chance of beating back the Azerbaijani army by themselves, said Artur Atayev, head of Caucasus Studies at the Russian Institution for Strategic Studies. Russia turned out to be the only actor capable of preventing the threat to civilians in Karabakh, which is why it was its peacekeepers’ command that brokered ceasefire talks between Stepanakert and Baku, talks that did not involve Yerevan, Atayev emphasized.
Izvestia: Vladimir Putin to visit China for Belt and Road Forum
Russian President Vladimir Putin has accepted Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s invitation to visit the country in October for the Belt and Road Forum, as the Russian head of state said himself at a meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on September 20, Izvestia writes.
The agenda of the negotiations was not limited to bilateral relations as the Nagorno-Karabakh issue was an unavoidable topic given how it was unfolding before everyone's eyes. The parties also discussed the Ukrainian crisis, which is not surprising given that China presented its peace plan to resolve the conflict earlier in the year. However, the parties refrained from going into detail during the part of their meeting that was open to the media, leaving the issue for closed-door talks.
Still, Wang Yi expressed Beijing’s unequivocal support for Moscow on the international stage, saying that the world was currently going through radical changes and the trend towards anti-globalization was already clear.
Today, it’s important for Russia to square its position on resolving the Ukrainian crisis with China, Dmitry Belik, a member of the Russian State Duma (the lower house of parliament) Committee on International Affairs, explained. On the whole, Russia has already taken China’s view of the issue into account, and there are no fundamental contradictions between Moscow and Beijing on the matter.
"Russia and China share a desire to resist the hegemony that the United States seeks to build across the world. For China, it’s important that Beijing and Moscow are capable of providing assistance to each other in a number of fields," Belik pointed out. Especially important is maintaining security in the Asia-Pacific region.
There is plenty of common ground for Moscow and Beijing, from strategic cooperation to the creation of a Eurasian space, Belik noted. He did not rule out that the meeting had also addressed some details about Putin’s upcoming visit to China.
Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky took the opportunity to address the United General Assembly in New York to promote his military peace formula. His trip comes amid tensions with Poland over a grain export ban and grievances about the Ukrainian armed forces’ failed counteroffensive. Even in the West, there is a growing contingent that thinks continuing to support Kiev might not be worth it, Nezavisimaya Gazeta notes.
The atmosphere around Zelensky’s visit to the US and his participation in UNGA events can hardly be described as positive, said Oleg Nemensky, leading expert at the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies. Kiev is getting a lot of pushback about its failed counteroffensive, while its problems with certain countries, particularly in Eastern Europe, are getting worse. Even in the United States, many people capable of exerting significant influence on the general attitude toward Ukraine have come to think that their investment in Kiev may turn out to be a failure. This doesn’t mean that the West plans to scale back its support for Kiev but it seems that the tone of its conversation with Ukrainian officials has grown tougher, Nemensky maintained.
On the day Zelensky arrived in the US, the New York Times published an article about a missile strike that killed 16 people in the town of Konstantinovka in early September. The newspaper came to the conclusion that the missile had been launched by the Ukrainian army. The NYT article could not have been published without "a go-ahead from senior officials," political scientist Dmitry Rodionov told Izvestia. "Washington and Brussels are increasingly saying that the Ukrainian armed forces’ counteroffensive has failed and Ukraine fatigue is growing. It’s quite possible that attempts are being made to create grounds for potentially dumping Ukraine," he said.
Denis Denisov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, points out that the Western media's rose-colored glasses about the Ukrainian leadership are coming off. "I believe that Washington and Brussels will gradually reduce their support for Ukraine. They will not completely remove it from their balance sheet as it remains a valuable asset and an important tool to weaken Russia. There are going to be enough funds and weapons to keep Ukraine afloat but no more than that. There will be less talk about Ukraine’s total victory," the analyst stressed.
Vedomosti: New York hosts first ever summit between US, Central Asian nations
The first ever C5+1 summit, which brought together the leaders of the United States and five Central Asian nations, took place on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York. US President Joe Biden thanked his Central Asian counterparts for their partnership approach to resolving regional security issues. The leaders discussed ways to create a better business environment for trade and investment. Biden also suggested getting the ball rolling on attracting investments to launch the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route connecting China with European countries, which would bypass Russia, Vedomosti writes.
The importance of the C5+1 platform has increased in terms of political dialogue because earlier, its meetings usually involved foreign ministers, said Stanislav Pritchin, an expert at the Center for Post-Soviet Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of World Economy and International Relations According to him, the Americans seek to use this dialogue platform to restrict Central Asian countries’ economic cooperation with Russia and potentially, China. "Although the United States’ trade and investment activities in the region have remained at a low level, the region is still a promising area for Washington’s foreign policy amid rising global tensions," Pritchin pointed out.
According to Kyrgyz political scientist Mars Sariyev, Washington is willing to fund alternate trade routes from Central Asia to Europe and is even mulling the possibility of bringing its military bases back to the region. However, in Sariyev’s words, the countries of the region will try to maneuver and won’t turn their back on either Moscow or Beijing.
The current escalation of tensions in the South Caucasus is contributing to US plans concerning Central Asia, Sariyev went on to say. Azerbaijan's victory and a possible launch of the Zangezur Corridor in Armenia will help create a stable trade route between Europe and the region through the Caspian Sea. "The US is ready to fund this project in order to eventually be able to use it to weaken China’s Belt and Road initiative," the expert concluded.
Izvestia: Russia’s gold holdings reach 21-year high
Russia’s gold assets amounted to 2,332 tons last year, a 21-year high, according to statistics from the World Gold Council. Russia remains in the top five in the world in gold reserves. This trend is due to the country’s rejection of toxic reserve currencies, Izvestia writes.
All of Russia’s gold assets are kept at the Central Bank’s vaults inside the country, the regulator said last March. In late February 2022, the United States and the European Union froze some of the Russian Central Bank’s international assets in response to the launch of Moscow’s special military operation in Ukraine. The Central Bank estimated the value of those assets at about $300 bln.
Rising geopolitical tensions driven by the conflict between Russia and Western countries have made many national regulators review currency risks, said Finam analyst Alexander Potavin. Using various defensive assets, including gold, reduces the likelihood of their depreciation, seizure and other problems, he noted.
Another reason why Russia’s gold reserves have grown is that the BRICS group is expected to launch a single currency that would be backed by gold, Freedom Finance Global analyst Vladimir Chernov pointed out.
As a major gold producer, Russia has always held a significant part of its assets in gold, said Anton Tabakh, chief economist at the Expert RA rating agency. For Russia, the dollar and the euro have become "toxic," so the country is now holding its reserves in gold and the yuan. "Sanctions are unlikely to be lifted in the foreseeable future so the upward trend in gold assets should persist. Gold is not the best investment tool but certainly not the worst," he said.
