Azerbaijani and Nagorno-Karabakh Armenian representatives hold first round of talks, Poland threatens to halt further weapons shipments to Ukraine, and Beijing seeks to bolster its position in the Middle East. These stories topped Friday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
Izvestia: Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh meet to discuss region’s future
The first round of talks between representatives of Azerbaijan and Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians, held on September 21 in Yevlakh, predictably ended without any tangible results, despite assurances from Baku and Moscow that the groundwork for a future peace treaty exists, Izvestia writes. At the same time, protests in Yerevan continued, with calls for Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's resignation as protestors believe he has abandoned the Armenians of Karabakh.
Negotiations began immediately after the parties signed a ceasefire agreement. Neither side has elaborated on what was discussed at the first meeting. However, Baku’s representatives are optimistic that negotiations between the Karabakh Armenians and Azerbaijan could lead to the signing of a peace treaty that would end the conflict, but it is unrealistic to expect that all problems will be solved in one meeting.
Baku has often stated that if Karabakh Armenians become citizens of Azerbaijan, they will be granted rights and protection. Those who do not want to live under Azerbaijani rule have been urged to leave for Armenia.
Meanwhile, protests continue in Yerevan. The leader of the Mother Armenia party, Andranik Tevanyan, believes that the authorities are not responding to the demands of the Nagorno-Karabakh population and that a change of government is urgently needed.
The European Union has recently expressed concern that years of antagonism between Azerbaijan and Armenia could hinder the reconciliation process between Baku and the people of Nagorno-Karabakh. In addition, several members of the European Parliament spoke out this week in favor of canceling the gas deal with Baku.
"The European Parliament, where France has a strong influence, has made the most frequent calls for sanctions. Its resolutions already include sanctions and recognition of the so-called Artsakh Republic. However, EU foreign policy spokesman Peter Stano has already stated that no sanctions will be imposed in the immediate future. So I don't expect any significant impact on Baku-Brussels relations," Farhad Mammadov, director of the Center for South Caucasus Studies, told Izvestia.
Vedomosti: Poland wary of signing new arms deals with Ukraine
Poland will honor only those weapons supply contracts it already has in place, including ones with Ukraine, Polish government spokesman Piotr Muller said recently. On September 20, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki told Polsat that Warsaw had stopped delivering weapons to Kiev because it was actively arming itself. Experts interviewed by Vedomosti believe that Poland has supplied Ukraine with most of its old weapons.
Poland's latest statements came amid an intensifying crisis between Warsaw and Kiev over Poland's embargo on Ukrainian agricultural products entering the Polish market. Speaking at the UN General Assembly in New York, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky claimed that Warsaw’s ban was helping Russia.
According to Alexander Ermakov, researcher at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Poland has probably already handed over what it didn't mind giving away, but it doesn't want to part with more advanced weapons. Other European donors to Ukraine have a similar attitude, he added.
Artem Sokolov, researcher at the MGIMO Institute of International Studies, added that Warsaw's statements about terminating arms contracts with Kiev mark a new stage in the strategy of military support for Ukraine. The outdated Soviet and post-Soviet weapons are running out and there is a need to supply more modern and expensive weapons, something countries are hesitant to do, he said. "Poland is clearly setting the tone for this new era. Therefore, the big requirement will be to ask Ukraine for guarantees that they will use this technology more cautiously and effectively," the expert told Vedomosti.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta: India-Canada relations tense after second Sikh leader killed
Sukha Deneke, a Sikh who India suspected of plotting terrorist attacks in the state of Punjab, was killed in Canada. This is the second time in recent months that a Sikh activist has been killed in Canada, following the death of Sikh community leader Hardeep Singh Nijhar in June. According to Nezavisimaya Gazeta, the looming crisis in Indo-Canadian relations has affected Ottawa's allies, the United States and the United Kingdom. Washington is trying to nudge India into helping with the investigation of the incidents in order to gain a strong ally. Meanwhile, Western media are trying to drag Russia into the fray.
According to Reuters, Canada's NATO allies are biding their time until Ottawa's investigation is complete. Meanwhile, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau publicly accused Indian intelligence of being involved in Nijhar's murder. Trudeau also encouraged his allies to issue a unified statement condemning India at the G20 conference in New Delhi in September.
In the meantime, the Financial Times links the cases of Sikh terrorists to intelligence cooperation between New Delhi and Moscow, alleging that the Indian intelligence agency R&AW, founded in 1968, worked with the Soviet Union's KGB while Soviet forces were stationed in Afghanistan.
Aleksey Kupriyanov, chairman of the South Asia group at the Russian Academy of Sciences' Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO), told Nezavisimaya Gazeta: "Indian intelligence worked with both Russian intelligence and the CIA when it suited India's interests." "Even today, there are ties between Indian intelligence and Russian foreign intelligence. This is an exchange of information of mutual interest," he added.
Izvestia: Beijing strengthens its position in the Middle East
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's first visit to China in 19 years will allow Beijing to gain a stronger foothold in the Middle East, Izvestia writes. According to analysts interviewed by the newspaper, this is an opportunity for Damascus to address its economic problems related to the war, sanctions and the recent earthquake. At the same time, experts believe that Washington is losing influence in the region.
China is now actively strengthening its position in the Middle East and, it seems, no longer takes into account what the West thinks regarding the formal authorities in Damascus, the newspaper writes. Meanwhile, Beijing and Damascus are more interested in economic cooperation than military or even political cooperation.
China also recognizes Syria's need to rebuild the civilian infrastructure that has deteriorated during the country's 12-year conflict, while Western sanctions pressure on Damascus only makes things worse for ordinary citizens every day, according to Syria expert Bassam Hashim. China has become more than just a key mediator in the Middle East; with the support of its trade initiative and other programs, it has surpassed the United States in economic influence, he added.
Bronislav Vinogrodsky, an expert on China, told Izvestia that China's main goal is to extend its influence to countries that are unattractive to the United States in terms of military and economic interests. At the same time, instead of military bases, highways and key infrastructure is being constructed. Moreover, unlike Western countries, China relies on equal and long-term relationships, he added.
Vedomosti: How will Russia’s ban on fuel exports affect world markets?
On September 21, the Russian government imposed a temporary ban on the shipment of gasoline and diesel fuel overseas in order to "stabilize domestic prices." According to the government's press service, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin signed the resolution. No date was given for the implementation of the restriction. According to Vedomosti, the government was forced to take this step due to the increase in wholesale prices and gray exports.
Limiting the export of oil products cannot be a long-term solution, Kirill Rodionov, an expert at the Institute for the Development of Technologies in the Fuel and Energy Complex, told the newspaper. According to him, the share of exports in total gasoline production is historically low, and there is a huge surplus of diesel in Russia, which could help lower prices for this type of fuel.
Dmitry Kasatkin, a partner at Kasatkin Consulting, noted that local markets that rely on Russian raw materials will suffer the most from the export restrictions. According to a Vedomosti source familiar with the Energy Ministry's figures, Russian companies will supply 2 mln tons of diesel and gasoline to the EAEU in 2022, which is much less than shipments to non-CIS countries.
According to Ronald Smith, senior analyst at BCS World of Investments, since Russia is a prominent player in the diesel industry, limiting its shipments could lead to higher prices for this type of fuel in Europe.
Surgutneftegaz, Gazprom Neft and Tatneft would bear the brunt of the export ban, Finam analyst Sergey Kaufman told Vedomosti. Meanwhile, Igor Yushkov, a leading expert at the National Energy Security Fund, noted that Lukoil could also be added to the list. At the same time, Rosneft will be allowed to continue supplying fuel under international agreements, he added.
